Key points: This article deeply analyzes the specific situation of the core sectors of the intelligent driving industry such as sensing, perception, and execution, and is optimistic about the new investment opportunities brought by intelligent driving.
Market space: Assuming that in 2025, global new energy vehicles will account for 20%, and the penetration rates of L0-L4/5 grades will be 10%, 40%, 40%, 8% and 2% respectively, the ADAS domain control market space may reach 120 billion Yuan, the camera market space is 86 billion yuan, the millimeter wave radar market space is 67 billion yuan, the lidar market space is 60 billion yuan, and the wire-controlled brake market space is 44.4 billion yuan.
Cameras: both volume and price rise. The increase of ADAS level puts forward higher requirements on the number and performance of cameras. In terms of quantity, Xpeng, Weilai and other recently launched L2+ models are generally equipped with more than 9 cameras. In terms of performance, the requirements for camera resolution (1 million → 5 million → 8 million), HDR, LED flicker suppression and other functions are gradually improved.
Millimeter-wave radar: The number of angular radars has increased and the accuracy has been improved. With the improvement of L1 to L4/5 levels, the number of millimeter-wave radars per vehicle has increased from 1 to 7 or more, mainly due to the increase in the number of side-looking short-range radars (SRR). In addition, the introduction of 4D millimeter-wave radar technology further improves the angular resolution and better meets the needs of high-level ADAS.
LiDAR: Cost down, accelerated penetration. The lidar has evolved from a mechanical to a solid-state type, and the volume is greatly reduced, making it easier to implement front-loading and lowering the cost. The price of Velodyne’s early mechanical lidars was around US$10,000. At this stage, it is believed that when the shipment volume exceeds 100,000 units, the cost of semi-solid/solid-state lidars can be reduced to US$1,000, and the cost of new-generation products is expected to drop to around US$500.
Domain controller: The main differences between domain controllers and ECUs are: 1) The electrical and electronic architecture has changed from a distributed to a centralized domain architecture; 2) The single-chip MCU is upgraded to a SoC with stronger computing power and versatility. ADAS domain controller is ushering in the inflection point of the explosion of shipments and penetration rate. Among the solutions that have been mass-produced so far, the driving domain controller solution adopted by Tesla has the largest shipment volume.
Brake-by-wire: electrified and intelligent two-wheel drive. Brake-by-wire penetration is mainly driven by factors such as the inability of electric vehicles to provide vacuum boost, improved braking torque feedback, and higher requirements for braking accuracy at L3 and above. At present, the two-box solution is the mainstream in the market, and the one-box solution stands out due to the advantages of higher integration, lower cost, and bypassing the barriers of Bosch ESP.
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