Today, Oudi’s holdings have plummeted, is the logic still there?
The grain concept plate is taken, but it is not a grain stock, but a grain of grain. It’s not pesticides, it’s not the seed industry, it’s another.
Let’s talk about the impact of the global food crisis on China:
1. China has the world’s largest strategic reserves of wheat, corn and rice. This reserve has ensured China’s food security for decades. There are crude oil reserves abroad and grain reserves in China. This reserve gives us the confidence to face various crises.
2. No matter how the overseas food crisis intensifies, there will be no problems with basic livelihood security in China within 1-2 years. That’s why I changed my thinking later, taking a slanted approach, not doing grain processing or grain production, and directly giving up on the Great Northern Wilderness of Sukeng Agricultural Development. If there is a resurgence of the national grain hoarding, the short-term saliva effect of such stocks will be better.
3. How long will this wave of food crisis last? At present, the high temperature in India and Pakistan has led to a visible reduction in wheat production, and even caused India to restrict wheat exports. Because of the global shortage of fertilizers, the price has increased, and the world has reduced fertilization. . Hundreds of millions of people in the sub-Saharan Desert will fall into famine due to reduced production, and a global famine is inevitable. This wave of crises will last until at least 2023.
4. How to solve the crisis? a. Expand the planting area and increase the yield per mu. More fertilizers should be used to expand the planting area, and more fertilizers should be used to increase the yield per mu. – This will result in a longer fertilizer cycle. b. Release the 300 million tons of food consumed by biofuels to the maximum extent. Overall global food production is greater than human consumption, and the excess is used as biofuel and goes to waste in warehouses. As long as the price is high to a certain extent, this part is more valuable to be sold to people than to be burned.
5. The utilization rate of some fertilizers in China is about 50%. Are fertilizer stocks still valuable? Phosphate fertilizers are valuable only if they have minerals, and only those with minerals are valuable. Fertilizer prices at home and abroad are upside down. Don’t expect to open up exports and earn the difference. The fundamentals of the sorting are solid.
There are potash fertilizers that are in short supply in China and whose prices cannot be controlled. Potash fertilizers that have mines overseas can be directly exported overseas and domestically, which are more valuable. The production capacity is increasing, but it is necessary to consider how long this cycle will last. If it cannot last for 2-3 years, the potential benefits after production will be greatly reduced. This is why I chose another overseas potash stock.
6. How long can a good year of grain last? This year, the world has reduced the use of fertilizers, extreme weather has reduced production, and high crude oil prices have caused biofuels and people to compete for food rations. The foreseeable 2023 is all in a state of shortage.
The European Union expands the planting area, China expands the planting area, other countries in the world build food reserves for their own safety, and expand their own food production, which will inevitably increase the overall planting area, and some barren land that is not suitable for food will also be planted. As a result, the fertilizer market can last longer.
A little worry: According to the current price, the purchase price of one mu of wheat is less than 1,300 yuan after one month. At present, livestock enterprises have purchased silage wheat for 1,500-2,000 yuan per mu. This is the potential price inversion. China imports about 130 million tons of grain every year, as well as a large amount of other meat imports. The dependence on overseas food is about 35%. This is a huge exposure risk and requires strong military strength to ensure food and energy security. We can guarantee the safety of staple grains. If you want to eat better, your mouth is full of oil, and you consume more meat and protein. The fundamental reason is that more than 100 million tons of soybeans and other grains are imported each year. is not possible.
Several influences of crude oil on food prices: the price of crude oil plummeted, and the price of coal and natural gas fell in a chain reaction, reducing the price of fertilizers such as nitrogen fertilizers; reducing the price of food production; reducing the consumption of food by biofuels can greatly alleviate the food crisis. However, the price of crude oil has plummeted-US shale oil, shale gas has become less competitive, production cuts, Saudi Arabia and Russia will take the initiative to reduce production, and the trend of negative oil prices in 2020 cannot be seen in the short term.
Various countries restrict grain exports: Indonesia restricts palm oil exports and Pakistan restricts sugar exports in order to stabilize domestic prices and ensure domestic market supply. The rise of global food protectionism will make more countries take precautions and increase food reserves, which is not conducive to the optimization of transactions of various food varieties.
Regardless of profitability or fundamentals, fertilizers are better than grains. Our A-shares do not have real grain beneficiary stocks like the four major grain merchants, so we have to choose fertilizers. There is a selection of seed industry, and pesticides, is also a good choice, I did not choose.
Recalling the history of Ukraine’s big granary turning into a famine, Ukraine has recently shipped large quantities of food to Romania and Moldova by land, and it is normal for Ukrainian refugees to return home without food.
The market that has not met in ten years, let’s do it and cherish it. I wish you all the best.
The stock price of fertilizers is already very low. After the Russian-Ukrainian war, I always posted about fertilizers and grains. That’s it, continue to suffer.
This topic has 6 discussions in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/2426390710/219494652
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.