In the past two years, most of the callbacks have not been medical, nor chips, but Zhonggai Internet, Hang Seng Technology, and Hang Seng Medical, which include Hong Kong stocks. There is no need to doubt that the Hong Kong stock market has been the deepest (no one) “value trap” that Wangjing Borg has experienced in recent years.
Let me share with you today that Hong Kong stocks took me into the abyss:
1. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is no stranger to Wangjing Borg. As early as 2013, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index grading fund was designed by us.
In 2016, Borg started a fund portfolio. For an asset allocation portfolio, the most important thing is to focus on the allocation of CSI 300 or CSI 500. At that time, Borg’s choice was to focus on CSI 300.
In 2017, Borg found that the CSI 300 Index accounted for 40% of the financial weight, and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index accounted for about 50% of the financial weight, and the two heavyweight stocks were similar (for example: China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, etc. ), the key to the same bank stocks, the Hong Kong stock price is lower. On a whim, Borg replaced the CSI 300 index in the portfolio with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.
Hang Seng state-owned enterprises replaced the CSI 300 operation, and still enjoyed a lot of sweetness in 2018. In that year, the CSI 300 Index fell by more than 20%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by less than 10%. Because of the allocation of Hong Kong stocks, Borg’s portfolio was particularly resistant in 2018.
Not so now:
In 2018, the low point of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was around 10,000 points, and the low point of the CSI 300 Index was around 3,000 points;
In 2022, the low point of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will be around 5,500 points, and the low point of the CSI 300 Index will be around 3,600 points;
In the past four years or so, (without considering dividends), the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has fallen by 45%, the CSI 300 Index has risen by 20%, and the difference between inside and outside is 65%.
How did such a tragedy happen?
In 2018, it is planned to revise the compilation method, and the concept of state-owned enterprises has become “Chinese enterprises”. Newly listed Internet concept stocks such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Meituan-W, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi Group have been included in succession. (For this old-fashioned state-owned enterprise index) is a huge positive! But after the inclusion of this Internet giant, it caught up with the endless decline of these Internet giants. Now it is a disaster to see that the adjustment of the constituent stocks.
2. Hang Seng Technology Index
The U.S. broad market index has the S&P 500, and the technology index has the Nasdaq. At the time when China Internet was at its peak, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange found that the main reason why the Hang Seng Index has underperformed the S&P 500 by a large margin in the past ten years is that there are no technology stocks in Hong Kong stocks, let alone a technology index. Taking advantage of the secondary listing of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also launched its own “Nasdaq” index – Hang Seng Technology.
When the Hang Seng Technology Index was first listed, Borg’s Zhonggai Internet had already made a lot of money, and it did not chase the price. When Zhonggai Internet started to pull back, due to the purchase restriction of Zhonggai Internet, Borg replaced Zhonggai Internet with Hang Seng Technology.
Zhonggai Internet pulled back 30% from the high point, and Borg began to buy Hang Seng Technology aggressively;
Zhonggai Internet pulled back 50% from the high point, and Borg continued to increase its positions in Hang Seng Technology;
Zhonggai Internet has pulled back 70% from the high point, and Borg is surprised (TM, this is the first time I have seen this fall method), since the total share of Zhonggai Internet and Hang Seng Technology has reached the 10% position limit, it will not increase the position. .
Thinking about it now, even an old leek like Wangjing Borg was full of infinite fantasies about Hang Seng Technology in the beginning. Now we can only use ” Hasn’t Nasdaq also experienced the baptism of the Internet bubble in 2000? Nasdaq was reborn after the decline of more than 80% that year. Hang Seng Technology will also be reborn. The key is that It ‘s a matter of time… ” to comfort himself.
I remember when China Global Internet fell,
Fatty Xi said to me: “There is a big V who fills up 15 hamburgers today, Zhonggai Internet, can we make up for Hang Seng Technology?” Borg gritted his teeth and said, “The position is already 10%, so I won’t make up the position.”
A few days later, Xi Pang said to me: “There is a big V who has filled up 10 hamburgers in Zhonggai Internet today. Can we make up for Hang Seng Technology?” Borg gritted his teeth and said: “The position is already 10%, and we will not make up the position.”
A few days later, Xi Pang said to me: “There is a big V who has filled up 5 hamburgers in Zhonggai Internet today. Can we make up for Hang Seng Technology?” Borg gritted his teeth and said, “The position is already 10%, and we will not make up the position.”
Two months later, Xi Fatty said to me again: “The big V who is in the middle of filling up the position has stopped talking, and it seems that he has disappeared…” Hearing this, Borg finally calmed down.
Now I can only be fortunate that I control the position ratio of funds in a single industry or a single direction.
3. Hang Seng Medical
Medical care is also one of Borg’s heavy-weight positions. In the past few years, military industry and medical care have basically only bought but not sold, and have been locked up. Since military industry and medical care started slowly in 2018, there are still relatively high profits, but medical care has a floating profit. Also more than half disappeared.
In early 2022, Berger researched Hang Seng Medical. There is still a difference between Hang Seng Medical and China Securities Medical. China Securities Medical mainly focuses on CXO, medical services and medical devices, while Hang Seng Medical mainly focuses on CRO, (unique) innovative drugs and Internet medical care. The key is that the same CXO Hong Kong stocks are cheaper.
Let’s take a look at the price of the Hang Seng Medical ETF from a high of 1.2 yuan, which has dropped by 50%. The price was 0.6 yuan before and after the Spring Festival, and Borg started to buy the Hang Seng Medical Connection again. After more than half a year, the Hang Seng Medical ETF At present, it is less than 0.5 yuan, and it is in a loss again.
Summarize:
At the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, Borg also bought some active funds of Hong Kong stocks. At present, most of them are losing money. Everyone will ask why Hong Kong stocks are like this?
(1) The current market value of the Hong Kong stock market is about 30 trillion yuan. The main listed companies are Chinese stocks (such as Tencent, Ali, Meituan, etc.), but investors are mainly overseas investors. In short, Hong Kong stock companies 80% are Chinese, but 80% of investors are overseas investors. Hong Kong stocks have fallen into the darkest moment in history under the background of the game between great powers and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
(2) Since the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the cumulative net inflow of funds from southbound buying of Hong Kong stocks to the Hong Kong stock market is 2.1 trillion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow of funds from northbound purchases of A shares is 1.6 trillion yuan. In fact, there are more funds going south to buy Hong Kong stocks. However, this 2.1 trillion fund cannot help the continuous selling of Tencent and Ali (foreign) major shareholders.
(3) Many large companies have been listed on AH shares at the same time. For short-term investors, it is predicted that the stock price will rise and buy more. For long-term investors, the same company will buy whichever side is cheaper. For example, the price of CITIC Securities Hong Kong stock is 11 yuan, and the price of A shares is 18 yuan. Smart long-term funds will continue to buy cheap H through Hong Kong Stock Connect.
After deep thinking, Borg decided that the Hong Kong stock foundation currently holding the position will continue to hold the position, but it will not increase the position on a large scale (mainly because there is no funds), and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Medical will continue to invest in small amounts. Don’t forget the words of Borg’s encouragement: ” Didn’t Nasdaq also experience the baptism of the Internet bubble in 2000? Nasdaq was reborn after the decline of more than 80% that year. Hang Seng Technology will also recover. The key to getting a new life is a matter of time… “
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$ZhongQi Internet ETF(SH513050)$ $Hang Seng Internet ETF(SH513330)$ $Hang Seng Medical ETF(SH513060)$ @snowball fund @today’s topic @happy not fat @snowball creator center
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