2022 is definitely a small year for the fund, mainly because the fund’s heavy holdings have fallen a lot. But if we start from the beginning of 2018, what is the overall rise and fall of stocks and funds in a full five years?
Let’s look at the index first. In the past five years, the mainstream Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 6.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has fallen by 3.95%, basically falling slightly. At the same time, there are 3,371 stocks with 5-year complete records, of which 1,323 have positive returns, and the winning rate is only 39.25%.
If you look at the industry, only 5 of the 28 industries have a 5-year cumulative winning rate of more than 50%, that is, the median is positive, and the winning rates of the other 23 industries are all less than 50%. The best performer is the food and beverage industry, with a winning rate of 67.05%, an average rate of return of 81.12%, and a median of 22.24%. The other four industries are leisure services, mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and chemicals. The five industries with the lowest winning rate are non-bank finance (16.18%), media (16.45%), communications (21.98%), real estate (22.50), and textiles and clothing (24.36%). Even among the banks that many people regard as the safest, 13 of the 25 banks have negative returns for 5 years.
Looking at individual stocks, the difference is very large. The only 10-fold stock market Tianhua Super Clean in 5 years, although it has fallen by 30.53% this year, it has risen by 1256.37% in 5 years. Shanxi Fenjiu, which had the smallest increase among the top 10, also rose by 625.86%.
Looking at the funds in the past five years, the overall situation is much better than that of stocks. Among the 5,357 funds of various types with complete records, 5,020 have positive returns in the past five years, and the winning rate is as high as 93.71%. The arithmetic average rate of return over the past five years is also as high as 34.17%, and the median is 23.75%, which obviously greatly exceeds that of individual stocks as a whole.
Let’s take a look at the largest number of flexible allocation funds. Among the 1,551 funds, 1,461 have positive returns, and the winning rate is as high as 94.20%. Both exceeded the entire fund.
Let’s take a look at the 10 best-performing funds and the 10 worst funds in the past five years. Among the top 10, Bank of Communications New Return, Everbright Pramerica Yongxin A, Everbright Pramerica Yongxin C, Jinxin Minxing Bond, CITIC Insurance 5 funds such as Chengzhi Yuan C are due to a large amount of redemption, which led to a sharp increase in the net value of the fund on a certain day, but there are still 5 equity interests such as Huashang New Trend, Jinyuan Shun’an, E Fund Environmental Protection, Golden Eagle Information, SDIC UBS Jinbao, etc. Funds have performed well.
But what I didn’t expect is that the funds ranked at the bottom in the past five years are basically high-yield bond funds. Only Minsheng Royal Select is a partial stock mixed type, and China Universal CSI Environmental Governance Index is a passive index fund. . Originally a low-risk bond fund, it turned out to be a high-risk one. The maximum five-year net value fell by 71.72%, which was also unexpected.
Still the same sentence: Except for a few masters, they can find stocks with high odds among stocks with low winning rates; for most small investors who have no professional knowledge, time and information, it is better to choose funds. Don’t be misled by the unsatisfactory performance of the fund last year. Judging from the two bear market cycles in five years, the fund still won overall. And according to past rules, every year after the fund’s heavy holdings underperform, the next year may be a good year.
Without sowing, how can there be harvest?
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