How to quickly and accurately identify the ultimate risk of a credit business?

Inter-industry exchange technical posts, I am not from a technical background, and I talk about the technical level in general. I used to be a member of the credit review committee in several banks, and I can also contact some peers, customers, and big brothers in the rivers and lakes on a daily basis. Talk about it.

1. First ask clearly, whose business is from which channel

Many corporate account managers are nominal children, doing business for leaders, and leaders who have a little conscience have a performance of 46%, 37%, and those who have no conscience give green onion cakes. So when you see a business, you must first find out whose business it is. Some sub-branch leaders or team managers are famous for their pickled goods. I really don’t know what to do, so I need to be extra cautious and careful. Some team leaders cherish their feathers, have clear career development goals, and do business without leakage. This kind of business will be given a certain amount of attention. New projects are probably okay, because this kind of people basically won’t do a one-shot deal, even if there is a problem, they will try their best to resolve it. When it comes to this, some people will think that it is too subjective, but after you have worked in this industry for a long time, you will find that the logic behind all things is to look for subjective arguments to support the objective, and there is no independent and objective statement at all.

For the child’s own business, you must first understand the child. Banks often say that you understand your customers. I think credit reviewers need to know more about the account manager who reported the business to you. I have worked for more than ten years, and some children really It will make it difficult for you to see through, looks harmless to humans and animals, 666 with beautiful words, super daring, some collect money and collude with intermediaries to make false materials, there is a joint-stock retail account manager, in order to provide foreign customers as a local residence certificate, ps A house book can be a scourge in a community. In a villa area of ​​more than 500 households, more than 600 people are his customers. Some directly manage customers to ask for money and tamper with information. In a rural commercial bank with a poor system, a little girl accepts benefits from customers. , I can change the paper version of the credit information while the review department is eating, and I am full of confidence that I will not be found, not to mention those goods that I do not witness or verify in person, so be sure to understand the background of this child, His family situation, how did he reach out to customers, this customer is through Mobai? Peer introduction? family relationship? Client referrals? Loan intermediary? Once the possibility of financial brokerage is found, there will be absolutely zero tolerance and reasons to refuse.

Fund brokers are actually a gray area in society. Generally speaking, such people speak loudly, and their whole body is full of luxuries that you can call out. Yes, some people in the bank are helping the brokers as channels. One is to have money, and the other is to save trouble. You don’t have to go out and expand your customers in a low-key manner. Facing the brokers, they are psychologically overwhelming, and they are full of money. However, serious companies will not pay such high financial costs for financing. Generally, there is a business crisis. For example, three or four years ago, a large number of brokers in Beijing were promoting commercial properties, and there were many well-known companies at that time, such as a certain East China. If you sell electricity, you can choose any of the various resort hotels in the backcountry. The financial arrangement fee will be divided into a bunch of jackals, tigers and leopards, and you will be able to give you 1%. The credit amount is generally three to four million yuan, and three or four million in cash. There is no need to put anything in the basic trunk of a family car. Think about it, is this going for normal repayment?

The military book says, know yourself and the enemy, the first step is to figure out the insiders.

2. Look at the subject, who will use the money

Many borrowers are “shells”, which is understandable. Due to the technical evasion of response policies, the real borrower is actually his parent company, so we must know who the main body of this business is, and analyze it carefully. this subject. We should not blindly trust state-owned enterprises. Personally, I believe that central enterprises and state-owned enterprises must first look at the level. The level of subsidiaries of central enterprises cannot be lower than level 3. Many of them are tools or innovation experiments. Subsidiaries of state-owned enterprises cannot be lower than level 2, for the same reason. Then there is whether the borrower is the traditional advantage of this central or state-owned enterprise. For example, CCCC builds roads and bridges, China First Heavy’s cold and hot rolling equipment and petrochemical heavy-duty containers are their main business and traditional advantages. In addition, there are emerging and green industries supported by the state, such as Sinochem’s organic and inorganic compound fertilizers and other low-polluting fertilizers, and the water sector of China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group. However, for the real estate, trade, and logistics sectors of central state-owned enterprises, we must be cautious. In addition, we must beware of “fake state-owned enterprises” and “fake state-owned enterprises”, especially for joint ventures with extremely complex shareholding structures. There are also so-called tertiary industries in some major sectors. It’s wearing a vest to sway and blend interests. If there is a problem, the big head office can wipe himself clean with a single official document.

For listed companies, the biggest feature is that the financial system is relatively sound and transparent, which can be easily analyzed. But in this circle, it is true and false, seeing flowers in the fog, and there are also a lot of STs every year, so it is still necessary to grasp the key points. I personally think that the first thing to look at is the industry, the status quo of industry development, the relationship between supply and demand in the market, future trends, and the status of customers in the industry. You can compare with listed companies in the same industry. Second, look at corporate governance, the degree of management standards of the enterprise, whether the actual controller has bad records and has been punished, whether the accounting firm is replaced every year or has records of violations of laws and regulations, and pay attention to the stock exchange’s punishment, inquiries and responses to customers . Third, look at the development prospects, pay attention to the national policies of the industry, pay attention to performance, investment growth, and related financial indicators, such as fixed asset growth rate, revenue, net profit growth rate, etc. Fourth, look at the credit granted to him by other banking institutions, the loan method, amount, interest rate, term, and the involvement of large state-owned banks.

The local relatively powerful private enterprises, looking at the current investment strategy, some of the rich generation themselves are not very literate, and they have accumulated a lot of wealth in a short period of time with the help of the times and the feng shui of their ancestors. This kind of people is really easy to float, and it is very easy Being targeted by some kind of high-end professional swindlers (this industry does exist, all of them are gangs), investing in unfamiliar fields, unable to recognize all 26 letters, just focusing on playing finance, arbitrage and capital market, some private enterprises I know The family basically died in this regard. As for the black swan incident in his main industry, they were able to get away from bad luck and get out of it perfectly, and would not let themselves get involved. Source and sensitivity, so this kind of boss, to put it bluntly, basically died in drift + greed. The potential problems of this type of enterprise, you should ask more people in the same industry and upstream and downstream with him, and you will know by inquiring, they are in the enterprise. The source of the news is more solid than that of the bank. The boss has no idea who he is, and the middle-level cadres and employees in key positions know best.

For small and micro enterprises, I personally have a point of view. I will look at the mortgage situation of the house where the actual controller resides. If it is a first-hand house mortgage, I will not talk about it, but if the mortgage is given to a small loan or a counter-guarantee is given to a guarantee company, I have to come. Your financing is basically a terminally ill taking painkillers to continue your life.

3. Look at the financing situation of other banks

You must not work behind closed doors in this business. You must have good friends in several places. You can drink and drink together every day, grind your teeth, and exchange news. I call this financial intelligence. If any company has a problem, the first batch will know. The person must be the core financial personnel. The financial personnel of the company have a very delicate relationship with various financial institutions. Another company’s finances are messy, and they have to deal with each other. For individuals, at any time, private is more than public. No one will see their relatives take the basic salary to urge them, and no one wants to see their buddies for how many years. It was trapped, so there will definitely be the first bank to hear the news and run first, and then the news gradually spreads. The bank management often hears some news that a certain company has problems and cannot do it. It is basically the information exchanged by colleagues in the same industry. , As a risk position, you can’t see all the way, listen to all directions, you are too addicted to data, you will be ungrounded, but you rely too much on subjective judgments and external information, without a solid knowledge reserve and technical foundation, you can only be as general as me talk.

There is no reason, just a few words.

Source: Zhihu www.zhihu.com

Author: Mr. Lin

[Zhihu Daily] The choice of tens of millions of users, to be a big cow of new things in the circle of friends.
click to download

There are 20 more answers to this question, see all.

Further reading:

I would like to ask, in the banking system, is the credit code and the type of credit business the same?

Will businesses be found using different financial statements for bank loans?

This article is reproduced from: http://www.zhihu.com/question/39975429/answer/2620767134?utm_campaign=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss&utm_content=title
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.

Leave a Comment