If we go back to the beginning of 2018 (equity convertible bonds)


Today we continue to see, if we go back to the beginning of 2018 five years ago, what will happen to the stock?


Overall, the average and median returns in 2018 and 2022 (as of September 16), which are still in 5 years, are negative, while the 3-year returns in 2019, 2020, and 2021 are negative. The average and median are both positive, and the proportion of positive returns is less than 50% in 2018 and 2022, while it is greater than 50% in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

What is more interesting is that in 2021, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell by 10.06%, and the CSI 300 fell by 5.20%, but the overall performance of the stock is still good, and the main falls are the big votes that affect the index. Another interesting number is that the 5-year cumulative return average is 10.21%, while the median is -14.73%. Why does this divergence occur?

This is because the bipolarity of stocks has been particularly sharp over the 5-year period. There are not only 10 times stocks in 5 years such as Tianhua Ultra Clean and Dongfang Cable, but also stocks such as ST Kangmei and *ST Yikang, which have fallen by 90% in 5 years. If you bought an average of all 3373 stocks at the beginning of 2018 and held them there, the average return you would get after 5 years was 10.21%; if you bought 1 stock arbitrarily at the beginning of 2018, the largest possible yield was A loss of 14.73% or close to that. This also explains why we want to diversify our investments.


Finally, we compare the mainstream stock index (full income), fund index, and convertible bond index in the past five years (as of September 16, 2022). From the annual data, we can see: 2019 is a big vote 2021 is the year of small notes, 2020 is the year of the fund, and the bear market of 2018 and 2022 is the year of convertible bonds, but if we look at the accumulation of these five years, it is obviously a convertible bond.

Of course, if you can buy Tianhua ultra-clean with a 5-year growth rate of 1653%, buy SDIC UBS Jinbao with a 5-year growth rate of 299.20%, and hold it for 5 years, then you can ignore these data. But it is still meaningful for most ordinary retail investors. These data mean that if you entered the market in early 2018, chose stocks, and did not operate much for 5 years, you can get a single-digit return with a high probability, which is not bad; If you choose a fund, if you don’t operate much for 5 years, you will probably get a return of about 40%; and if you choose a convertible bond, you adopt a strategy of spreading the pie, as long as you don’t forget to sell before foreclosure out, then there is a high probability that the assets can be doubled in 5 years.

As for why the increase of CSI Convertible Bonds in the past five years is less than half of that of convertible bonds, in practice, the CSI Convertible Bond Index is a scale-weighted index, and the weight of convertible bonds such as banks is particularly large, which affects its growth. , and the income obtained by the strategy of spreading the pie is closer to the equal-weight index.

The only purpose we come to the market is to make money. Since the purpose is to make money, we must choose a variety that is easy to make money. Convertible bonds are one such type. Are you a value investment? How many layers do you get in the chain of contempt for investment? None of this is our concern. What we care about is how to make money legally, which is the original intention of our investment.

Never forget the original intention.

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