As a practice, since I started writing the fund column in 2021, I will write an article at the beginning of each year “202X, how to place my fund?” “, to make a brief review of the fund investment of the previous year, and at the same time make a plan and outlook for the fund investment of the current year.
I wrote “2022, how should my fund be placed?” written at the beginning of last year. “ , I think 2022 is a year of steady growth, and there should be relatively loose monetary and fiscal policies, so I am not pessimistic about the stock market in 2022.
But as we all know, the unpredictable Russo-Ukraine war and the domestic epidemic in 2022, especially the latter, have seriously affected the domestic economy. The government’s economic growth target of 5.5% is far from being realized. Therefore, the stock market will naturally go bearish, and the stock market will be mixed. Looking at the fund index, the decline is basically the same as in 2018.
In terms of specific investment strategies, judging from the past history of style rotation, I think that the value style should be dominant in 2022, and a certain proportion of value style funds should be properly allocated; This year will also usher in opportunities for gradual deployment. Throughout 2022, I have been increasing my positions in China Internet and Hong Kong stocks according to the original investment ratio.
In the final result, we have also seen that the value style will indeed perform better than the growth style in 2022, and the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks and Zhonggai Internet for the whole year is also better than that of the partial stock hybrid fund index. Because of the allocation of value-style funds, Zhonggai Internet and Hong Kong stock funds, it outperformed partial stock hybrid funds by nearly 5 percentage points.
Specific to the operation level, I have adhered to the veritable “lazy man’s fund raising” style. In 2022, I only partially converted two of the funds whose fund managers have changed. Other than that, I did not sell or adjust positions. .
I regard equity funds as the main tool for carrying wealth. The market value of the funds I currently hold is about 1.5 times the value of the properties I hold including self-occupation and investment properties. In the future, this ratio will increase by a large proportion, so I The income goal set for one’s own investment funds is also very clear, that is, to strive to obtain the long-term average level of active equity funds, and the anchored performance benchmark is the partial stock mixed fund index.
This investment method and strategy actually binds the country’s destiny.
In fact, we go to school, get a job, start a business, and every aspect of our life is closely related to the national destiny. The national destiny generally determines the height of our success.
If the national fortune is prosperous, the stock market will naturally flourish, and our equity investment will definitely rise; if the national fortune declines, there is a high probability that putting money in any asset will not have any good results.
And if you choose to believe that the decline of the country’s fortunes means that you have no future, you can only be drunk today. So I can only choose to be an optimistic investor, believe in the prosperity of the country, and look forward to a bright future.
If you think about this question clearly, fund investment is actually very easy. If you have spare money, you can invest in it. “But do good things, don’t worry about the future.”
The foreseeable favorable situation in 2023 is:
1. The adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy has eliminated the biggest obstacle to the recovery of the domestic economy.
In 2023, the country spares no effort to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth. The goal of stabilizing growth was not achieved in 2022, making the task of stabilizing growth in 2023 even more urgent.
In addition, 2023 coincides with the change of government, and the new government should strive for a good start.
Large-scale consumption and infrastructure construction are the sectors that obviously benefit from stimulating domestic demand. The 2022 Central Economic Work Conference specifically mentioned that the real estate, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services that have obvious effects in stimulating domestic demand are the focus of efforts to stabilize growth; if real estate stabilizes Yes, the banking and insurance sectors, which were dragged down by real estate in the past few years, will also benefit from it; the consumer sector, which is more directly affected by the epidemic, such as catering, hotels, tourism, aviation, etc., may usher in explosive growth in 2023.
From the perspective of the economic recovery cycle, the value-oriented traditional economy in the first half of the weak recovery may be the first to usher in opportunities, that is to say, the value style may continue to dominate in the first half of 2023.
2. The platform economy has been repositioned to “lead development, create jobs, and show its talents in international competition”; the fundamentals of mainland companies listed on Hong Kong and US stocks are expected to improve in 2023.
On the other hand, the possible weakening of the strength and frequency of U.S. interest rate hikes in 2023 will also improve overseas liquidity.
Historically, if fundamentals and liquidity improve at the same time, Hong Kong and US stocks will perform well.
3. From a slightly long-term perspective, high-end manufacturing themes and growth styles such as semiconductors, new energy, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and national defense and military industry that have undergone major adjustments in 2022 may also usher in layout opportunities in 2023, and if after 2023 China’s economy can experience a strong recovery in the first half of the year, and it is not ruled out that some directions in high-end manufacturing may usher in bottoming out.
Currently conceivable (potential) disadvantages are:
1. The way for the United States to deal with inflation is to raise interest rates to “play out” the market’s expectations of economic recession, thereby curbing consumption and investment, and the actual effect may actually lead to a recession in the U.S. economy; while Europe has entered a recession cycle.
This will largely affect our country’s exports in 2023, thus dragging down economic growth.
2. Will the confrontation between China and the United States intensify, will the war between Russia and Ukraine escalate, and will there be new and unknown difficulties in the fight against the epidemic?
Although this is a very low probability event, in the era of “big changes” with frequent black swans, we must remain cautious amidst optimism.
Based on the above considerations, I have the following assumptions about the fund investment in 2023:
1. Continue to keep partial stock funds basically full positions, but try to be conservative when investing new funds every month. The investment funds must be “leisure” enough, and pay attention to reserve enough spare funds for production and life.
2. Suspend the investment of new funds in the month when the upward trend is obvious, and temporarily release the monetary fund as a “placebo” for the stock market decline. (This kind of psychology is very strange. As long as there are still funds that have not been invested, I will always unconsciously hope that the stock market will fall; if the decline is larger, there will be excitement and impulse to “get a bargain”.)
3. Maintain the current value style (traditional economy), growth style (new economy) and the original proportion of Hong Kong stocks and China Internet of Things remain unchanged, but if the value style shows a significant increase , consider switching to a partial benchmark stock The active quantitative funds of the hybrid fund index have partially switched to the growth style (including high-end manufacturing themes), and gradually reduced the proportion of value style positions .
4. The main investment direction of this year’s new funds: 1/3 invests in high-end manufacturing themes, 1/3 invests in the active quantification of benchmark partial stock hybrid fund index, 1/3 invests in other original positions according to the original proportion, or invests in Among the original positions, the funds with the largest decline in the previous month.
Consumption is a “bright card”. Most of the active funds I invest in have certain positions in consumption, so I no longer invest in consumption-themed funds alone.
5. Continue to observe several active quantitative funds against the benchmark-biased hybrid fund index to see the overall stability of their strategies. If the stability of the strategy is good, you can consider transferring 70-80% of all positions in the future and abandon the strategy of “spreading the pie”; the remaining 20-30% of the positions will be deviated and rotated by themes, industries or styles.
【Summary 】
The economic growth in 2023 may be low at the beginning and high at the end. The value style in the first half may still be dominant, and the growth style in the second half is expected to usher in opportunities.
In 2023, the overall balanced layout of fund investment will focus on the partial stock mixed fund index, and will not seek to actively deviate; continue to “lazy people support the foundation” and achieve dynamic balance.
All opinions and funds involved in this article do not constitute investment advice, but a true record of my own thinking and practice, and invest in the market based on this, at your own risk.
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