It’s the end of the year again, and the year of ups and downs is finally coming to an end. In this year, from reality to the stock market, we have experienced a lot. No matter what the benefits of this year are, we have to look forward. Instead of lamenting the wounds, it is better to cherish the price we have paid.
In 2022, the annual decline of the CSI 300 Index will reach 21.63%, which is slightly higher than the two years of 2011 and 2018, when the decline exceeded 25%, ranking fourth in the history of the CSI 300 Index.
There are three main reasons for such a large decline:
1. The impact of the epidemic
This part of the content will not be expanded. We have all experienced the past three years. This is a round of epidemic that will change the global economic landscape. It is still difficult to determine the extent of its impact. But at least in 2023, the opportunities for economic development will increase year-on-year, just cherish it.
2. Real estate
Personally, I think real estate has a bigger impact than the former. Think about it at the beginning of 2020, our knowledge of the epidemic was still very limited, but after the second quarter, the economy has fully recovered. The reason is to give enough support to the real estate industry, which has led to the rapid development of various industries.
But starting from the second half of 2021, the bonus points will become minus points. The real estate industry came to a screeching halt. Not only was it unable to save the economy again when the epidemic intensified, but it led to trillions of debt problems. The debt of real estate companies is the revenue of related companies and the source of livelihood for thousands of households.
In the past one and a half years, the performance of real estate will definitely be written into the economic history, but for the parties concerned, the final conclusion is a matter of the future. To deal with and grasp this great change is what we need to do most today. Things must be done well. After all, the price we have paid is too great. If we can’t do it well, I’m sorry for ourselves who have paid so much.
3. Valuation
In the first quarter of 2020, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the currency continued to be loosened, and a large amount of water entered the capital market. In the second half of 2020, we experienced a surge represented by consumer stocks, and some liquors showed triple-digit price-earnings ratios; feat.
Overvaluation is the original sin. In a bull market, stories can drive stock prices; but in a bear market, the market only believes in the performance of real money, and will pay more attention to the height of the ceiling.
It can be said that the crash in 2022 is the result of the superposition of three factors. At the end of the year, after the “return to focus on economic construction”, fundamental changes have taken place in many major environments.
In November, support measures on the real estate supply side were continuously thrown out, which led to the market reversal in the past month or so. To untie the bell, one needs to tie it. The key to everything lies in the real estate. If these trillions of holes are not plugged, it will be half the result with half the effort, and may even be futile.
But the support from the supply side can only stop the decline, just like painkillers, which can relieve the pain, but cannot cure the disease. If we want to completely get out of the current predicament, we must boost the sales data of commercial housing, and there is no other way. This requires greater support on the demand side, but one month has passed, and what the market was looking forward to did not appear in time, which is why the market has experienced a significant correction since early December.
2023 will be a year of comprehensive recovery, especially the market in the first half of the year can be expected, but this will not be a state of general growth in the entire market, and the differentiation will be very serious. Just like since November 1, banks, real estate, and consumption have surged, but the performance of new energy has been a mess. Many people find that the market is surging, but their accounts are constantly shrinking.
The prevention and control has been completely canceled, and the valuations of a large number of industries and companies in the market have returned to low levels. The variable in 2023 is still in real estate. The market is hovering here, waiting for the warming of the demand side. Someone once said more than a year ago: “When a whale falls, all things live”, but when the whale falls, all things have to survive. In 2023, real estate will prosper and everything will prosper, so let’s follow the monthly sales data of real estate companies. @Today’s topic
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