A blog post from Bank of Communications fund manager Yang Jinjin. I think it’s well written, with some explanations attached.
Judging from this year’s economic and market trends and historical review, the economy and market in 2022 can be said to be relatively weak. From a historical point of view, there will be two trends in the follow-up,
One is the L-shaped bottom of the real economy, with relatively ample liquidity, there will be some segmented prosperity tracks that perform better, and the market presents the mainline market for growth stocks. The blue chips in the broader market fluctuated; [release water to save growth stocks]
Second, the bottom of the economy is recovering, and the market presents the main line of blue chip stocks. [Buy blue chips without waterproofing]
However, looking at the historical market, the direction of the market and the choice of the main line are closely related to the fundamentals of the entire social economy. The emergence of a blue-chip market depends on the long-term and sustained recovery of the economy, and the bull market for growth stocks cannot be a castle in the sky. The new booming track that can accommodate a large amount of capital is used as the main line. [The growth stock market will not be the old track of the past few years]
For 2023, we judge that when the economy starts to bottom out, the market may rebound first. Next, the market may enter a period of shock adjustment, and observe whether there are signs of strong recovery in the economic fundamentals or whether a new booming track that accommodates large amounts of funds has come out.
In addition to the current judgment, what is more important is the observation and choice of the evolution of the situation next year. Historically, no matter whether it is an individual stock opportunity or a directional opportunity, it will gradually emerge in the first half of the year, especially at the end of the first quarter.
[It may not be known until the end of the first quarter which is the main line, so wait patiently]
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