“If there are no special “black swan” and “grey rhino” events, it is expected that domestic sales of new energy vehicles will maintain a growth rate of 30%-40% in 2023. Based on the sales volume of nearly 7 million in 2022, China is likely to become It is the first country in the world where the sales volume of new energy vehicles has entered the order of tens of millions.”
Recently, the China Electric Vehicle 100 held the 2023 annual media communication meeting. At the meeting, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100, reviewed the development of the new energy vehicle industry in 2022 and released a forecast for the development trend in 2023.
Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of China Electric Vehicle 100
According to Leifeng.com, the Ninth China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum will be held in Beijing from March 31 to April 2, 2023. With the theme of “promoting the modernization of China’s auto industry”, 2 plenary sessions, 4 closed-door meetings and 10 special forums will be held, focusing on the development situation of the global auto industry, the development strategy of China’s intelligent networked vehicles, and the supply of core industrial chains such as power batteries The development trend of the chain, the trend of the new generation of automobile consumption change, the strategy of the coordinated development of automobiles and energy, the transformation direction of commercial vehicles, the investment strategy of new automobiles, the digitalization of automobiles and the intelligent manufacturing model and other topics were discussed.
Zhang Yongwei said that with the development of the new energy automobile industry, front-line entrepreneurs generally believe that unilateral automobile changes such as electrification and intelligence in the past can no longer represent the future development direction of automobiles, and automobiles have become an innovative and integrated product. , the industry has also become more cross-border. Therefore, in combination with the development vision of “a powerful automobile country”, the 9th C100 Forum decided to use “modernization” as the key word and no longer emphasize unilateral changes.
In the past 2022, the domestic new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. According to Zhang Yongwei, from January to November 2022, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 6 million, and the annual penetration rate will be above 25%.
Zhang Yongwei said that if there are no special “black swan” and “grey rhino” events, the sales growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles will reach 30%-40% in 2023. The sales of energy vehicles may break through the 10 million mark, and China is likely to become the first country in the world whose annual sales of new energy vehicles have reached tens of millions.
“This is far ahead of past goals, beyond the country’s expectations of us, and beyond the past judgments of many companies on the industry.”
So, what will drive the total sales of 10 million new energy vehicles?
Zhang Yongwei believes that in the past, the main battlefield of new energy vehicles was first-tier cities. This year, second- and third-tier cities and urban and rural markets will become a huge source of incremental electrification.
In 2023, the increase in first-tier cities will mainly come from the demand for car replacement, and the contribution from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles will be limited. The third- and fourth-tier cities and the lower-tier markets below the fourth tier are in the explosive period of motorization, and show the new characteristics that consumers prefer electric vehicles when buying cars, which is the main driving force for the total sales of new energy vehicles to reach 10 million.
The ease of battery supply bottlenecks and more diversified products are important factors driving the growth of new energy vehicle sales in 2023.
Zhang Yongwei said that power battery companies have focused on expanding production capacity in the past two years. By 2023, this batch of production capacity will be released in a concentrated manner to alleviate the supply problem of power batteries. At the same time, the price of lithium carbonate, a battery raw material, will gradually fall after three years of skyrocketing, which will benefit the new energy automobile industry.
It is worth noting that the application of new technologies such as lithium manganese iron phosphate, PET composite copper foil, and sodium-ion batteries will also achieve breakthroughs in 2023 and begin large-scale applications. “The new technology itself will not become the main force, but it will force the current ternary lithium series and lithium iron phosphate series to accelerate the realization, and accelerate the release of the existing mainstream technology production capacity.”
Compared with the new car platform of fuel vehicles, the electric vehicle platform can support faster product iteration speed. Zhang Yongwei predicted that at least 100 new energy vehicles will be launched in 2023, the market supply capacity will be strengthened, and diversified products will stimulate consumption.
Since the rise of new energy vehicles, the high-end market of more than 300,000 yuan and the low-end market of less than 150,000 yuan have always been the main areas of major car companies, and the sales structure is characterized by a “dumbbell shape”.
Zhang Yongwei believes that the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2023 will accelerate the transformation to a “spindle type”, and the mid-range market of 150,000 to 300,000 will become the most intense market for fuel vehicles and electric vehicles to “strangle”. “The focus of competition between domestic independent brand enterprises and joint ventures, as well as brand wars and price wars will all arise in this field.”
From the product side, the penetration rate of intelligent technology continues to rise. In 2021, the penetration rate of China’s L2-level assisted driving passenger car new car market will reach 23.5%, and the penetration rate will rise to 32.4% in the first half of 2022. It is expected that the penetration rate of L2-level and above intelligent networked vehicles will reach 80% in 2025.
Zhang Yongwei said that by 2023, several key L2-level intelligent driving technologies such as autonomous cruise, car following, parking, and blind spot detection will become the basic threshold for consumers to choose a car. “In the past, the selling point was battery and battery life. Now these technologies have become the selling point of car sales.”
At the same time, the smart cockpit will also become the standard configuration of automobile products in 2023. The cockpit system has a lot of room for innovation, which is the embodiment of the company’s characteristics and differentiation.
In addition, new energy vehicles going overseas will usher in further development. In 2022, OEMs and supply chain companies such as BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Ningde Times have all announced overseas deployment plans one after another, and the new energy automobile industry chain has pressed the shortcut button for going overseas. From January to November 2022, my country’s export volume of new energy vehicles reached 593,000 units, and it is estimated that the export volume in 2023 is expected to be close to 800,000 units.
“Whether an industry is diversified or not, and whether the participants have technological backgrounds, determine the vitality and vitality of the industry.” Zhang Yongwei said that the auto industry in 2023 will be more lively, whether it is on the production side of the car or on the commercial side. There are many technological forces involved, including leading companies in the fields of the Internet, Internet communications, electronic technology, and home appliances.
Zhang Yongwei said that the electric era emphasizes who makes the car, but in the smart era, it may be more important to know what the core strength of the car is, not necessarily to build a whole car. The Committee of 100 will also focus on discussing how technology works in 2023. Intervene in the role of automobiles, and discuss the ways and carriers in which technological power plays a role.
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