Core conclusion
The capacity of the fleet is supported by both new additions and reductions and the withdrawal of capacity: new orders are scarce and shipowners are low in their willingness to invest in new ships, resulting in the current proportion of global product tanker orders reaching a historically low level, and the future deliverable capacity will show a stepwise decline; ship demolition In terms of shipping capacity, due to the accelerated aging of the fleet and the increasing pressure of environmental protection regulations (especially CII), there is a potential driving force for the increase in dismantling; the capacity utilization rate of the fleet is close to the historical average level; Slow down further. We expect the effective shipping capacity of the fleet to increase by 4% in 2022; the growth rate will slow down to 1% in 2023, of which MR is expected to increase by 2%, LR2 and LR1 will increase by 2% and decline by 2% respectively.
Future demand is expected to improve the transportation volume and superimpose the distance multiplier effect: In the post-epidemic era, the global demand for refined oil products is gradually recovering, and the withdrawal of production capacity in Europe and the United States has increased the dependence on imports. We expect the global seaborne trade volume of refined oil products to increase by 2 in 2022 %, an increase of 3% in 2023. After Europe stops importing Russian refined oil products (February 5, 2023), the increasing contradiction between supply and demand in Europe and the United States will bring opportunities for cross-regional arbitrage trade. In addition, the process of changing the global refined oil trade pattern is accelerating, and the transportation distance is further extended. It is estimated that the global crude oil shipping distance will increase by 3% in 2022 and 6% in 2023. Overall, the global marine turnover of refined oil products will increase by 5% in 2022 and 9% in 2023. The medium and long-term refined oil trade will continue to be supported by the increase in cross-regional trade brought about by the eastward shift of production capacity (both volume and distance).
Investment suggestion: According to our forecast, in 2023, the supply-side fleet capacity will increase by 1%, and the demand-side ton-nautical-mile trade volume will increase by 9%. promote. Beneficiary companies include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Nanyou. Taking China Merchants Nanyou as an example, assuming that the break-even point of a single vessel of MR is 10,000 US dollars per day, based on the market freight rates under pessimistic, neutral and optimistic scenarios, it can be estimated that the MR fleet profit of China Merchants Nanyou in 2023 will be 19.3 respectively. 100 million yuan, 2.57 billion yuan and 3.86 billion yuan.
To view the full report please click
Note: Unless marked as original, all are contributions and sharing by netizens or institutions. If you have any publicity needs, please contact [email protected].
This article is transferred from: https://www.dx2025.com/archives/28312.html
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.