Remember March 2020? That was the week we said goodbye to the office and started improvising a small space at home to use for work. Of course you do. At that time, I planned to return to the company and sit back in my swivel chair after two weeks of dealing with it at home, and by the way, my work status has completely returned to normal.
Yet two years later, and now a third, office workers across the United States are still sitting on couches and spare bedrooms at their computers, working from home most of the week at least. It’s not that executives are sitting idly by, it’s that they’re genuinely looking forward to returning to the good old days when everyone was in the office.
This year the office was supposed to return to the state it was in the year before the outbreak. But 2022 in the real world is not what many policymakers hoped. Back-to-office plans and tasks come and go, are continually hampered by new mutations of the virus, and push workplace relationships toward workism, with employees and management engaged in a veritable war over the future of how work will be done.
With the benefit of hindsight, it can now be concluded that thinking of returning to the office in May 2020, or even in the fall of a few months later, was wishful thinking (perhaps the most euphemistic statement). It was not the worst time of the epidemic. No one was vaccinated for the first year, and there seemed to be little to do to flatten the infection curve. Early 2021 saw some hope of a summer back in the office as people rushed to get vaccinated that spring, however then came the delta variant followed by the Omicron at the end of the year and quickly broke the “hot summer after everyone gets vaccinated” “Hope, more colloquially, is that there is no hope of returning to the office.
The calendar turns to January 2022, and people are used to clamoring to return to the office every once in a while. After failing twice in 2020 and 2021, executives and business leaders are starting to focus on whether 2022 is on track. Yet it ushered in a year of more intense debate about offices and the future of work.
2022: Frustrated attempts to return to the office
After many disappointments in 2021, many companies have almost given up on planning rework dates, but the rework rate actually increased in the first few months of this year.
In early 2022, office occupancy rates will be just over 23%, according to security firm Kastle Systems, which tracks patterns in employee key card entry systems. Attendance jumped to 43 percent by the first week of April, and stayed about the same through most of the spring and summer.
It was a time of heightened tension and anxiety among remote and hybrid employees and executives. After the Omicron wave peaked in the first few months of 2022, there has been a major shift in fears about the outbreak. Bosses are getting ready to call workers back into the office in the spring: Apple’s new hybrid work plan is frustrating employees, Goldman Sachs is asking employees to work five days a week, and Google has stopped staying at home and started pulling workers back office, and hosted a Lizzo concert for employees in the Bay Area office.
However, two years after the epidemic, white-collar employees have become accustomed to the freedom and flexibility of telecommuting. They can work anywhere, and they can also answer calls and hold video conferences on Zoom when they are on vacation at the beach or in the forest. The ceremonies celebrating the return to the office couldn’t impress them with much excitement. With a tight labor market, many white-collar workers feel they have the upper hand.
Almost everyone is rebelling, threatening to leave in droves. Several companies have been forced to delay or revise their plans to return to the office due to the outcry and the emergence of new Omicronya variants. Companies announced the return to the office loudly, but when it came time to enforce it, it was eerily quiet because employees simply ignored the rules. Plus, no one wants to go back to the office in the summer, not even executives.
When Labor Day was supposed to be the final line, we heard companies like Apple, Peloton, and Comcast urging employees to return to the office. Some companies are also taking a firm stand, like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, with return-or-leave mandates, while others entice workers with perks like lunch boxes.
It worked to a certain extent. The attendance rate has increased slightly, from nearly 44% before Labor Day to more than 47%, also the highest level since the epidemic. But executives expecting more than 50% attendance will be very disappointed. Office attendance has hovered around 47% throughout the fall.
Recession fears haven’t stopped people from working from home
One of the more interesting developments in this year’s almost non-stop return-to-office debate has been seeing the conversation shift from when the “normal” 9-to-5 will return to the mix that’s best for employees , What should a flexible working environment look like? Executives appear to have largely given up on forcing employees back into the office. But maybe it’s just biding its time, ready for a long game?
“There’s a pretty broad view that the hybrid model has been embraced in the office culture and the shift has been successful, but as the economy winds down, people will be forced back into the office because there’s no choice,” said the global consulting and executive search firm last month. Dan Kaplan, senior client partner at Korn Ferry, told Fortune.
But the problem, he said, is “people don’t want to go back.”
Since there are so many job vacancies, even ordinary white-collar workers can take the initiative and choose to enjoy life to the fullest. They do have the conditions to demand flexible working and balance work-life benefits.
Yet job vacancies fell more than expected in late August to 10.1 million from 11.2 million in the previous month, pointing to a darker economic outlook and causing companies across industries to tighten their belts after a period of hiring and business growth.
Kaplan’s idea is that employees will also believe that a recession is coming, and return to the office quickly, with a more pragmatic attitude and higher productivity, so as to avoid being laid off. But some employers have opted to ditch offices ahead of workers to cut costs, while job creation continues, contrary to economists’ expectations, suggesting workers may still have the upper hand.
It’s too early to tell whether Kaplan’s theory is correct in 2023 (maybe the year of the return to the office?), at least not in the second half of 2022, and of course the anxieties are palpable.
In September, October and most of November, the office attendance rate remained relatively stable at around 47%, although some industries may be higher. The latest figures from Castle Systems show that attendance jumped to 49% in the week ended Dec. 5, the highest level since the pandemic began.
While the return to the office envisioned by executives such as Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk didn’t materialize this year, the reality is much more interesting: no matter how the future of work continues to evolve, or what the office is in it, the Driven by people who are genuinely affected by the situation. We’ll definitely be watching. (Fortune Chinese website)
Translator: Liang Yu
Reviewer: Xia Lin
Do you remember March 2020? Specifically, the week we said goodbye to our office plants and began setting up make-shift office spaces at home? Of course you do. It was supposed to last two weeks before we’d be back in our rollly chairs and, for all intents and purposes, back to business as usual.
But two, going on three, years since then, and many office workers across the country are still typing away from their couches and spare bedrooms for at least a major part of their week—and it’s not for lack of trying by the executives eager to bring back the good ol’ days of the office.
This was supposed to be the year we all went back to how work looked pre-pandemic. But 2022 didn’t unfold the way many decision makers had hoped. Return-to-office plans and mandates came in fits and starts, hammered by new variants, shifting relationships to workism, and a veritable war between employees and management over the future of how we do our jobs.
Hindsight is 20/20, and we can all agree it shows that we were naive (probably the nicest way to put it) to ever think we’d be returning to the office in May 2020 or even a few months later in the fall. We had yet to experience the nadirs of the pandemic. No one was vaccinated and nothing seemed to flatten the curve that first year. And while 2021 initially offered some hope that we’d be back at our desks by summer, as people lined up for vaccines in the spring, the emergence of the Delta variant, followed later by Omicron toward the end of year, quickly dulled the promise of a “hot vax summer” and—slightly less bacchanalian—return to office.
By the time we flipped our calendars to January 2022, we were getting used to return-to-work cycle. After throwing in the towel on 2020 and 2021, executives and business leaders had their eye set on a 2022 return. However, was a chaotic up-and-down year filled with more questions about the office and what the future held.
2022: The year of thwarted return-to-office attempts
While many companies all but gave up on giving firm return-to office dates after so much disappointment in 2021, office occupancy rates actually saw an uptick a few months into the year.
At the start of 2022, office occupancy stood at just over 23%, according to Kastle Systems, a security company that tracks patterns in employee key-card entry systems. That jumped to 43% office occupancy by the first week of April, where it roughly remained through much of the spring and summer.
It was a period of heightened tension and anxiety between remote and hybrid workers and executives. There was a major shift in pandemic concerns in the early months of 2022, after the height of the Omicron wave. By spring, bosses were ready to start calling workers back to offices: Apple frustrated employees with its new hybrid plan, Goldman Sachs demanded staff to return five days a week, and Google put an end to working from home and started pulling workers back as well. The tech giant celebrated with a Lizzo concert for employees in its Bay Area offices.
Two years into the pandemic, however, white collar workers were used to their newfound freedom and flexibility that allowed them work from anywhere, taking calls and Zooms from beaches and woodsy getaways. They could not be swayed by flashy RTO celebrations. And in a tight labor market, many white collar employees felt they had the upper hand.
They all but rebelled, threatening to quit in drives. The fervent dissidence, coupled with the rise of new Omicron subvariants, forced many companies either delay or revise those their return-to-office plans. Office intentions, they were surprisingly quiet when it came time for enforcement as their employees simply ignored the mandates. Besides, no one wants to go into the office in the summer—not even executives
Labor Day was supposed to be the ultimate do-or-die, line in the sand—and once again we heard from companies like Apple, Peloton, and Comcast calling workers back. Some companies, in the vein of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, put their foot down and demanded a return or else, while others goaded workers with perks like lunch boxes to lure them back to their cubicles.
It worked, to a certain extent. Office occupancy saw a slight uptick from nearly 44% before the holiday, to more than 47%, the highest it had been since the start of the pandemic. But if execs were hoping to see that number tip over 50% they were sorely disappointed. Office occupancy has hovered around 47% all fall.
Recession fears haven’t stopped people from working from home
One of the more interesting wrinkles in this year’s virtually nonstop return-to-office debate was watching the narrative turn from when will we return to the “normal” nine-to-five, in-office work day to what’s the best hybrid, flexible working situation for employees. Executives, it seems, essentially gave up trying to force people back to offices. But perhaps they’re just bidding their time and playing some long game?
“There’s a pretty broadly held view that we’ve done the hybrid thing, and it’s worked, but that we’re heading into a recession, and people are going to be forced to come back to the office because they’ll have no other choice,” Dan Kaplan, senior client partner at global consulting and headhunting firm Korn Ferry, told Fortune last month.
But the thing is, he says, “people aren’t going back.”
Rank-and-file office workers grabbed hold of the upper hand for dear life when job openings were a plenty, and they had leverage to demand flexibility and work-life benefits.
At the end of August, however, the number of job openings fell from 11.2 million the month prior to 10.1 million, more than expected. It signaled a gloomier economic outlook that caused companies across industries to tighten their belts after a period of increased hiring and growth.
The idea, as Kaplan laid out, was that employees would see the looming recession as writing on the wall and flock back to offices in an attempt to portray a more present, productive front and save themselves from layoffs. But some employers are opting to get rid of the office before the worker as a cost-cutting measure, and the economy is continuing to add jobs, defying economists’ expectations—signs the worker may still have the upper hand.
It’s too early to say whether Kaplan’s theory will prove true as we enter 2023 (the new year of return to office?), but it didn’t really come to fruition in the latter part of 2022, though those anxieties were palpable.
Office occupancy held relatively steady around 47%, with an uptick here and there, through most of September, October, and November. The latest data from Kastle Systems, however, shows that the week of Dec. 5, occupancy rates jumped to 49% , among the highest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.
Although returning to the office the way execs like Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk envisioned didn’t happen this year, what unfolded was so much more interesting: a real-time evolution of the future of work and how the office factors into that equation, driven by the people most impacted by how the puzzle pieces actually fall. We’re definitely keeping an eye on what comes next.
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