In the new year of mixing, BYD’s reputation is really going to reverse?

Welcome to the WeChat subscription number of “Sina Technology”: techsina

The road is long and the road is still long, and it is still the key word of BYD.

Written by / Chen Dengxin Editor / Gao Zhi

Source: Zinc Scale

BYD’s voice is getting louder.

According to a number of mainstream media reports, Lian Yubo, Executive Vice President of BYD Group and Dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute, officially confirmed in an interview with the media that he will supply batteries for Tesla; ; Found six lithium mines in Africa, all of which have reached acquisition intentions…

BYD has not only become the focus of every move, but also has subtle changes in its reputation.

Once upon a time, BYD was at the bottom of the car contempt chain, and the reputation has not been high.

Today, BYD has greatly improved, and positive evaluations are gradually rising.

This can also be confirmed from the sales volume. After all, the actual sales volume cannot deceive people: in May 2022, BYD sold a total of 114,183 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 152.8%; from January to May, the cumulative sales volume was 509,444 vehicles, which is the annual sales volume in 2021. of 69.8%.

Despite this, why are the capital markets still divided on BYD? Can BYD, whose voice is increasing, really sit back and relax? Great Wall, Changan, Geely, Chery and other local brands have increased their weight and mixed, can BYD crack the “hunting” situation?

The market education of the new car-making forces is cheaper for BYD

Right now, BYD’s market value is approaching a record high.

On March 15, 2022, BYD’s market value rebounded after hitting a low of 609.65 billion yuan during the year. As of June 7, it was 916.69 billion yuan, just one step away from the trillion yuan mark.

For BYD’s outlook, the market’s views are polarized.

One point of view is that BYD is red-eyed and is about to usher in the “Diwang Era”.

Although BYD entered the new energy vehicle track a long time ago, it has been tepid. At that time, the market’s prejudice against new energy vehicles was visible to the naked eye, until the rise of new car-making forces represented by “Wei Xiaoli”, which cultivated consumers It has taken over the minds of consumers and changed the world’s rigid impression of new energy vehicles.

However, the market education provided by the new car-making forces has made it cheaper for BYD.

In May 2022, the sales volume of Ideal Automobile, Nezha Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, Leapmotor, NIO, and Jikr Automobile were 11,496, 11,009, 10,125, 10,069, 7,024, and 4,330, respectively.

Correspondingly, BYD’s new energy vehicle sales exceeded 100,000 units for three consecutive months.

“In a few days, BYD’s share price will surpass that of ‘Ning Wang’, and it will become ‘Di Wang’, which will take the ChiNext board to the brink,” said one investor.

A private equity person told Zinc Scale: “BYD’s momentum did not hit the big luck, but the result of insisting on ‘building a strong fortress and fighting a dull battle’, and ushered in a technical blowout under the accumulation of strength.”

For example, BYD has laid out semiconductors in advance and can produce a variety of semiconductor devices in-house. Therefore, in the context of the lack of cores in the industry in 2021, it will alleviate the pressure on the supply chain to a certain extent.

Another point of view is that BYD is very much like Station B in 2020.

In 2020, Station B seems to be on the hook. It has transformed from a former “small broken station” to a “big mine” that understands young people best. Although there are repeated losses, it is no longer important. Betting is the consensus of the capital market.

However, breaking the circle does not mean making a profit. With the intensified losses, Station B fell to the altar, and the market value shrank by more than 80%.

At present, BYD’s static price-earnings ratio exceeds 300 times, and the price-to-book ratio is close to 10 times. The market value is overdrafted to the naked eye.

Lack of intelligence, high-end uncertain

In fact, it is not unreasonable to be bearish, and BYD also has hidden worries under the light.

First, there is insufficient capacity.

For many years, BYD’s sales have not reached a new level, so it has not planned for production capacity. It will not speed up the pace until 2021, but it will not be able to quench the thirst of the near future.

Insufficient production capacity has become the most difficult problem for BYD at present.

An industry insider said: “Everyone who is engaged in product production has experience. If you produce 10 commodities in a month, and produce 1,000 commodities in a month, the situation and problems in various aspects such as quality, craftsmanship, safety, and environmental protection are completely complete. Different.”

Under the rush, some problems may be exposed.

In fact, there are many complaints against BYD on the black cat complaints, many of which are related to quality, involving rust on the body, failure of the vehicle controller, the screen is good and bad, and the design of the central control screen is defective.

Second, the lack of intelligence.

Sima Qian, director of Big V Tang History, said: “The final competition for cars is at the L5 level, and fully automatic driving is deprived of privatization. Before this game is won, all the victories are fake.”

BYD has been intelligent early, but the understanding of intelligence is relatively simple, focusing on the iteration of the vehicle-machine system, rather than the evolution of automatic driving, so the assisted driving system DiPilot will be launched in 2020.

In this way, BYD’s long board is very long, but its short board is also very short.

According to data released by Zero One Think Tank, BYD will be at the bottom of the 2021 China Autonomous Driving Patent Ranking TOP 10, with only 397 related patents, which is not even like Chery, a traditional car company.

Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, said in September 2021: “In the major changes in the auto industry, electrification is the first half, and intelligence is the second half.”

To this end, BYD is also eager to make up lessons.

For example, deepen the cooperation with Baidu, which provides BYD with a mass-produced ANP intelligent driving solution and a human-machine co-driving map.

Once again, the impact on the high-end remains to be tested.

BYD is constantly hitting the high end. In May 2022, the 20W+ BYD Han sold 23,934 units, compared with 8,214 units in the same period in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 191.38%.

Tasting the sweetness, BYD has also planned two mid-to-high-end series of Ocean and Tengshi.

More importantly, it is expected that high-end brands with a price range of 500,000 yuan to 1 million yuan will be launched around October 2022, which means that BYD needs both sales and profits.

However, whether BYD’s brand premium can support the “high-end dream” remains to be tested by time, which tests whether BYD’s brand is really different.

The domestic hybrid is on the rise, and BYD is caught in a hunt?

It should be noted that BYD also faces a challenge that cannot be ignored.

This wave of BYD’s momentum is due to hybrids: in May 2022, the sales volume of hybrid vehicles was 60,834 units, and the sales of pure electric vehicles were 53,349 units. The benchmark Honda.

According to the analysis of “Chejujun”, the working principle of BYD’s DM-i hybrid system is almost the same as that of Honda’s i-MMD hybrid. Mainly, but BYD’s cost control is better, and the interactive entry price of the A-class sedan has reached 111,800 yuan.

However, it is not the BYD family that has opened up the “Ren and Du two veins”.

For a long time, Japanese car companies such as Toyota and Honda dominated the Chinese hybrid market, and domestic hybrids have been marginalized until Paice’s hybrid patent expired in 2019, and independent brands such as BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Changan, and Chery One after another, the market has ushered in a pattern of blooming flowers.

Great Wall’s Lemon, Geely’s Thor, Chery’s Kunpeng, and Chang’an’s Blue Whale are all working hard to benchmark BYD, eager to replicate BYD’s successful path.

The voice that is optimistic about BYD’s market outlook is weakening

From the public parameters, it is not impossible.

Compared with the engine displacement, BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Changan and Chery are comparable; compared with the maximum power, BYD is at the bottom, and Changan is ahead; compared with the maximum torque and thermal efficiency, BYD is also in the middle and upper reaches.

Aside from the parameters, the advantages and disadvantages of BYD’s hybrid are also quite obvious.

BYD’s advantage is that it entered the game early, has accumulated more R&D experience, and has a deeper background in power batteries; the disadvantage is that its underlying logic is mainly driven by motor and supplemented by engine. This technical route is low temperature. The fuel consumption will increase in the environment, and the fuel-saving effect will decrease in high-speed driving.

In this way, it also leaves room for dislocation competition for the opponents.

All in all, BYD is as bad as it was in the past, but it is so beautiful today, but there is still suspense about how long it will last in the future. , Geely, Changan, Chery and other hunting, whether it can maintain the first-mover advantage is uncertain.

Then, the road is long and the road is still long, and it is still a key word that BYD cannot avoid.

(Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s point of view and does not represent the position of Sina.com.)

This article is reproduced from: http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-06-08/doc-imizmscu5771638.shtml
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.