The value investment in many people’s minds is actually their own imagination. By the standards they understand, many of Buffett’s trades are speculative if the name is withheld. Of course, if they knew this was what Buffett did, the conclusion would change.
This is an era where it is easy to hear rumors. A person’s understanding of another person or another thing is often not researched by himself, but heard from others. The opinion leaders who now dominate public opinion are all institutional bosses. They control the mainstream voices and tell investors in various ways every day what kind of behavior is value investing.
The year before last, a big man’s book was a hit, and since then, a term called “long-termism” has become popular. This is of course correct from a thinking point of view. If you don’t want to hold it for ten years, don’t hold it for ten minutes. There is no problem with this logic. But in reality, it’s a little bit different.
As a fund manager, you naturally hope that the investors of your own products will keep the money in the fund and not take it out. This is understandable. But no matter what the market is like, just advocating buying is doing people harm. Buffett also likes long-term investors, of course, but his old man publicly stated at the shareholders meeting that “we wouldn’t buy our own stock if we let it trade on Monday.” Which fund manager said such a thing?
All we have seen are words like “Fear of heights are hard-working people” and “Heroes see the same thing in a group”. At high levels, we tell everyone to take advantage of the bubble to make money quickly, and at low levels we talk about market undervaluation and don’t leave the market.
The sutras are good ones, but those who recite the sutras always have ulterior motives.
The essence of value investing is not complicated to sum up. The most complicated part is what all masters can’t teach you. After all, most of them are individual investors and ordinary retail investors. When they copy themselves according to the classic model of value investment, they always find that many things are not correct. too.
For example, after you have waited for several years, you finally waited until your favorite stock fell to the expected price, but your mother came to tell you that the stock market was about to collapse, so hurry up and take out all your money; you saw that the market was too frenetic, and many demon stocks skyrocketed. , When I didn’t dare to increase the position, my wife looked at your account and said contemptuously that the old man next door didn’t study the company at all, and his income has doubled this year.
It’s a reality that most people have to face, and it’s boring to say, but sometimes it affects one’s investments more than all the classic theories.
Whether it is the public opinion outside the body or the instigation around them, it is not just as simple as noise. It is difficult for people who cannot effectively coordinate between dreams and reality to go too far on the road of value investment.
Some people will think that value investing has constant stock selection criteria and the only correct trading model, and deviating from it is deviant. In fact, there is only one principle in value investing, which is based on value, and other parts can only come from the nature of your own funds and your ability to withstand financial pressure. Breaking away from your own situation and blindly pursuing the trading patterns of those masters, for most people, the consequences can only be dragged down.
Buffett can hold Coca-Cola for 14 years without making any money, can you? Kweichow Moutai has experienced no increase for 7 years, can you accept it? For the vast majority of people, not to mention a sharp decline, even if it is sideways for 3 or 4 years, household expenses will eat up a lot of the principal. After the stock price rises sharply, the gains left to investors will not be too much, and it is more likely to cause permanent losses.
Of course, in such a situation, the bosses will say that “investment can only use spare money”, but the world is impermanent. For ordinary people, who knows which money is spare money?
Why do you still fail to invest well after studying theory for so many years? Because reality is not designed according to theory. Few people get sick according to textbooks. There is nothing new under the sun, but there are always ordinary people’s troubles around them. These are never within the scope of the masters’ research.
For example, the master has no idea how long your mother-in-law can tolerate you not buying a house, nor how much principal you have left after buying a house? No one can teach you this. You have to develop an exclusive system by yourself, adapt to your funds, adapt to your health, adapt to your mother, wife, children and mother-in-law. At this time, you must keep the value in your heart, but you must forget all the classic cases. Only the trading model that suits you is the only truth.
For value investing, scholars are born, and those who seem to die, and learning to walk in Handan has always been the core reason why many people have to leave the field. Without understanding yourself, you will never understand investing. @Today’s topic
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