I remember Mr. Wu Jinglian once said that the Chinese stock market is not even as good as casinos. At that time, I deeply disagreed. My reason is that if you are not a gambler and do not participate in any gambling-related behavior in the market, naturally this market is a paradise for investors, not a casino; however, today, I have to say that in the past few years The changes in the market have indeed made the current market inferior to casinos.
We say that when making an investment, there must be a valuation anchor; that is, what is the reasonable value of the company. With this anchor, there must be a group of value discoverers and value fulfillers. In this way, only when we do value mining and discovery can we have value and significance. We talk about the three major functions of the capital market-financing function, value discovery, and price transmission. But in addition to the financing function, the current capital market has completely lost the other two functions. The so-called stocks are basically reduced to “chips” on the gambling table. Objectively speaking, the market at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 was worth investing in, and the value discovery function was realized under the guidance of foreign capital. However, the tragedy is that Chinese fund managers have fully set their value expectations for the next N years.
In the current world, it is estimated that all market participants will basically not be able to do stocks if they leave liquor and medicine. After all, only these two industries will grow with certainty in the long run. Liquor is mainly reflected in the price increase with inflation; medicine benefits from the aging population and the growing demand for health. But the current problem is that the valuation of liquor will take at least two years to digest the valuation. Another huge uncertainty faced by investors in liquor stocks is the impact of the valuation cycle. After all, since the stock market, there has never been any industry that has escaped the influence of this similar “ground attraction”. The pharmaceutical industry is too complicated. I personally do not have the ability to study this industry thoroughly. Coupled with the continuous impact of the centralized purchasing policy, I want to find out the stocks that I dare to buy from this industry.
In all major industries, except for banking, coal, chemical industry, some environmental protection, new energy and some nucleic acid, antigen detection pharmaceutical stocks, almost all industries are overvalued, not only overvalued, but also overvalued outrageous. This shows that the current A-share market only has transaction value, not much investment value. This market is too friendly to “price deciders” who have capital advantages. I really can’t imagine that those price followers can make money in a zero-sum game, negative zero-sum game market, which is not in line with common sense. On the contrary, in a market that needs liquidity to realize its financing function, the essence of tolerance to price determiners is to realize the transfer of wealth from the hands of the poor to the hands of the richer. Recently, Magic Square has donated a total of 221.38 million yuan to charities. In addition, the company employee “An Ordinary Pig” personally donated 138 million yuan to charity organizations for news swiping. Under the background of a negative zero-sum game, where did the money come from? Whether quantitative trading is market price manipulation or arbitrage trading is a question worth studying. To be honest, our market is too unfriendly to retail investors. No matter who they are, they want to dig a piece of meat from retail investors.
After a year of suffering last year, although it was difficult to obtain a weak positive return, this return is far from my expectation at the beginning of the year. The worst thing is that I am not sure whether the expected difference is caused by external unpredictable factors, or It is caused by my understanding of the market. According to public information, the management of a company in which I have a relatively heavy position is also too optimistic about the goals that can be achieved last year.
In view of the current market valuation status, although I am not sure whether my understanding of the market is no longer suitable for the current market conditions, after all, it still outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 15% last year. The performance is basically the same. For this year’s market, my investment strategy will be more cautious. This is mainly based on the fact that despite the decline in the past year, the median market valuation and the valuation of most stocks may still rise. cognition.
Overall, although the market has risen fairly well since the beginning of this year, this is nothing more than a re-bubble based on the bubble, and smart investors should not change their objective judgment based on value based on price changes.
The above are only personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice! The stock market is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market!
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