A few months ago, resource stocks were hot, and futures prices were high. Qunyou is looking forward to the future of resource stocks, saying that global inflation will enter a big bull market for resource stocks. On the other hand, I think the economic recession in the old and the United States is obvious, and the global economy is also not good, which will definitely affect resources. I am bearish on US stocks and bearish on resources.
A month ago, golfers said how high the price of oil would rise, and Goldman Sachs saw $140, or even $300. I think that oil futures are still the battlefield of international capital, and it will fall by 10% at any time one day, so be careful.
But you want me to tell the logic behind it, I can’t tell it myself, it’s just a guess on the long-term tracking of the market.
Several golfers , I see more Changchun High-tech, more Wingtech Technology, and more Keheng shares, representing pharmaceutical stocks, semiconductor chips, and lithium battery equipment. But I am short-term bearish on Zijin Mining and tin industry shares. Of course, I am optimistic that these two good companies will return to high points in the long-term.
Medicine, semiconductor chips, and lithium battery equipment are actually all low-level sectors. As you all know, I am short on the pharmaceutical sector at the end of June 2020, the golden decade of the pharmaceutical industry. This time is different? I will not blindly bet against a certain industry, I can still see the top and bottom.
I think the lows are in full swing. From historical experience, the decline of high-level sectors is not because of fundamentals, but because other sectors have diverted funds. So I think it is necessary to switch between high and low, and the low plate looks like a defense, but it is an offense.
On July 5th, resource futures plummeted, which I don’t understand either.
In the market, many times there will be some signals, indicating that the sector has peaked or bottomed. In the three days and two ends of the plate, there were stocks that fell sharply for no reason, or the performance exceeded expectations and the daily limit should have been exceeded, so he rose 1% or even fell. Usually it’s a peak sign.
Or if there are logically contradictory ups and downs, you must study why, and if you do not understand, you must pay attention to the risks.
Many times, it is difficult to have perfect reasoning because the information is not complete and clear at the time, but the conclusion is easy to draw. This is a must-have ability for investment managers to draw high-probability correct conclusions from incomplete information.
What does a researcher need to do? These contradictions or risk points are brought up for investment managers to make decisions.
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