iPhone 14 cuts orders, 5nm cash cow shakes: TSMC’s profits will plummet for the first time

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【CNMO News】Smartphones can’t be sold anymore? This topic will be very hot in 2022, and some authoritative data can also prove that the mobile phone industry is currently in a relatively sluggish state. According to CNMO’s understanding, the semiconductor industry, which is closely related to smartphones, is also facing challenges, and even a giant like TSMC cannot stay out of it. Recently, some organizations have predicted TSMC’s revenue, and its revenue in the first quarter of 2023 will decrease by up to 15% from the previous quarter!

TSMC

According to Taiwan media reports, TSMC will hold a law conference on January 12, and Morgan Stanley has released its forecast for TSMC’s 2023 revenue in advance. The agency believes that TSMC will maintain “moderate growth” throughout the year, and revenue may increase slightly by 1%. However, life in the first quarter is not easy. Morgan Stanley expects that TSMC will decrease by 14%-15% quarterly, mainly due to the reduction of orders for high-end smartphones and data centers. Stay at 55%. In terms of capital expenditure, Morgan Stanley expects TSMC to be around US$30 billion in 2023.

Morgan Stanley is still optimistic about the overall performance of the semiconductor industry this year. It predicts that the semiconductor industry will start to recover from the second half of 2023 for three reasons: first, the reduction in capital expenditure and production volume of foundry; second, technology products ( such as mobile phones and TVs) falling in price; and the third is the reopening of the economy.

Compared with the first quarter of 2023, which was cast a shadow in advance, TSMC’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2022 is still reassuring. Investment institutions previously predicted that TSMC would maintain a double-digit year-on-year growth rate in this quarter, and it is also expected to achieve a quarterly increase of 2.2%-6.3% compared with the third quarter of last year.

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