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At present, the old red who pays attention to the photovoltaic industry every day is very divided, because the information on the photovoltaic industry and the trend of photovoltaic stocks are very divided every day.
Let’s just say that on April 6th, two photovoltaic industry researchers successively posted on WeChat: “After the cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than that of coal power, there is an explosive increase in demand, which is the moment”, “The cost of solar energy has dropped the most, The cost of natural gas has converged, and the best energy source in the future is solar energy.” At the same time, two photovoltaic stock investors commented on the Weibo of LONGi information forwarded by Laohong: “They are all bearish on him” and “There are too many bears against LONGi now”. In the stock market, LONGi is known as “Photovoltaic Mao”, representing the photovoltaic sector. Over the past six months, the trend of LONGi stock and the photovoltaic industry index has relentlessly confirmed the choice of photovoltaic stock investors.
On the one hand, the growing demand space has brought about the booming photovoltaic industry, and on the other hand, the photovoltaic stocks have been declining due to the demand for valuation restoration. For the photovoltaic industry and photovoltaic stocks, industry people are more and more optimistic, which is different from the current continuous inconsistency of stock investors. Look, it doesn’t look very divided.
In the past year, the trend of photovoltaic stocks has indeed been very pessimistic, so that on April 20, some people were extremely pessimistic: “Ning Wang fell below one trillion, and Sungrow’s power supply fell to the limit! The photovoltaic new energy track is out?”. At the close of the day, the stock index on the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 13.43% during the year, but the photovoltaic industry fell by 27.65%, and Sungrow fell by 50.56%. If it is said that “the stock market is a barometer of the economy” and the trend of industrial stocks indicates the trend of the industry in the future, then the continuous decline of photovoltaic stocks indicates what will be the trend of the photovoltaic industry in the future?
In the past year, when photovoltaic stock investors abandoned photovoltaic stocks, most of the commentaries were that the photovoltaic industry is currently “invoked” and the valuation of photovoltaic stocks is too high. Laohong understands that what they call “involution” refers to the current frantic expansion of the photovoltaic industry, which will inevitably bring about increasingly fierce industrial competition and a sharp drop in corporate profit margins.
This makes Laohong think of such a question: Is this round of continuous downward repair of photovoltaic stock valuations related to the upcoming integration of the photovoltaic industry? Up to now, the valuation of the stocks of leading photovoltaic companies represented by LONGi, Tongwei, and Sunshine has been repaired for a year, and the valuation has reached the theoretical reasonable range. However, the valuation of the photovoltaic sector stocks is still repaired. Falling and falling, with no sign of reaching a bottom for a while. When will it stop falling? What is the reasonable standard for the downward repair of this round of PV stock valuation? Since the reason why PV stock investors abandon PV stocks is “involution”, the only thing that can end the “involution” is the upcoming integration of the photovoltaic industry. After the crazy expansion of the photovoltaic industry, only through a brutal industrial integration can the relationship between supply and demand be straightened out, and the photovoltaic enterprises can have a reasonable structure, a reasonable number and a reasonable profit margin.
If this judgment is true, then, if the falling photovoltaic stocks want to stop falling and stabilize, they need to wait until the crazy expansion of the photovoltaic industry is coming to an end; if the valuation of photovoltaic stocks that continue to repair downwards wants to rise again, it needs to wait until the photovoltaic industry is integrated. Near the end .
Lao Hong believes that this round of photovoltaic stock valuation restoration is related to the integration of the photovoltaic industry. This relationship is reflected in the three stages that the photovoltaic industry has gone through, is going through and will go through.
Stages that have been experienced: starting from 2020, the important status of the photovoltaic industry has been determined – the reputation of the photovoltaic industry has risen, and photovoltaic stocks have generally risen successively – the valuation of photovoltaic stocks has become higher;
The stage it is going through: the market space for future demand for photovoltaics is increasing, the original capital and new capital of photovoltaics are expanding wildly – the competition in the photovoltaic industry is fierce, the profit margin of photovoltaic enterprises is decreasing – the valuation of photovoltaic stocks is repaired;
The stage to be experienced: the integration of the photovoltaic industry begins, the survival of the fittest in photovoltaic enterprises – the number and market share of leading photovoltaic enterprises tends to be reasonable – the photovoltaic stock returns to a reasonable and high valuation range.
The current photovoltaic industry is “going through the stage”, and it is still in the late stage of crazy expansion. The industrial integration has not yet begun, and the most cruel time for enterprises has not yet come. According to this, the downward repair of photovoltaic stock valuation should not be completed, but it is close to the bottom. Range, as many commentators say “limited downside”. Only when the “phase to be experienced” begins, the integration of the photovoltaic industry begins, some companies withdraw from the market, and the market share tilts toward excellent companies, the valuation of photovoltaic stocks may rise again, but this should be a long time process.
When evaluating the same industry, industry people pay more attention to the future value of the industry, and stock investors pay more attention to the current valuation of the company. This is why, at present, people in the photovoltaic industry are optimistic about photovoltaics in the long run, while photovoltaic stock investors are not optimistic about photovoltaic stocks in the short term. Lao Hong wanted to understand this, and it became less divided.
References:
“Ning Wang fell below one trillion, Sungrow Power fell to the limit! Photovoltaic new energy track flameout? 》
Hongwei
2022.4.8.
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