2022.05.12 (issue 61)

Lottery Shop, Promised Land for the Disappointed

Source: mp.weixin.qq.com

There is a lottery shop on my commute. Occasionally, when I pass by after get off work, it is convenient for parking and the weather is fine. I will stop and buy 5 two-color balls for ten yuan. Apart from the monetary investment, no extra time was spent on research, knowing that lottery tickets are purely independent random events.

If you calculate the expected value, buying a lottery ticket will definitely be a loss, but like a black swan, it is meaningless to calculate the expected value for things with extremely small probability and great risk. I estimate that I invest dozens of yuan a month on average, which is not worth the coffee money for a week. The impact on my life is negligible, but if I get hit, I can change my life.

In addition to the extremely low monetary cost, there is no time cost invested. Initially, there will be emotional costs (there will be expectations), and now there is basically no psychological expectation, and it really does not affect daily life at all.

But like the old man in the article, a pension of more than 6,000 yuan a month, 4,000 yuan to buy lottery tickets, and a lot of time to study the so-called trends are not desirable.

Investor sentiment survey: Real estate investment willingness dropped significantly, risk aversion rose

Source: finance.caixin.com

The sample size of 2500 is still too small, but it can be used for reference. One of them is that the proportion of GDP growth exceeding 5% should not exceed 60%.

Ukrainian war correspondent’s notes: under fire, everything has changed

Source: cn.nytimes.com

“Everywhere I went, I saw displacement, injuries and deaths without exception, which made me no longer believe that there are people or places in Ukraine that have not been affected by this war.”

What is Douban? -Wei Wuhui

Source: weiwuhui.blog.caixin.com

It is generally believed that the user overlap between Douban Group and Shuyingyin is very low. It was mentioned in a podcast of Pan Luan’s previous episode that this was not the case at first, because the Douban group and QQ had some kind of cooperation, and a large number of QQ users poured into the group, which led to this result. This article also mentioned the cooperation between Douban and QQ.

April sterling silver column: the dilemma of vertical communities, how to mediate conflicts in meetings, and analysis of TOP5 new products in US social networking