$Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong(TIAA041001)$
This is our 1006th weekly strategy report.
Talk about a personal experience.
Last year, when I went back to my grandma’s house, my aunt and uncle were going to the city to do business, so I drove with them. In order to avoid going the wrong way, I used the navigation all the way. On the way back, my uncle pointed to the path next to him and said, go here, it’s faster here.
I hesitated for a moment, but insisted on following the navigation. After walking for a while, my uncle said, fortunately I didn’t take that path just now, I was wrong.
The idea at the time was very simple. It wasn’t that I didn’t believe in my uncle’s judgment, but since the navigation could take us back smoothly, it only took a few more minutes, so why take an unpredictable path to save a few minutes?
In last week’s weekly strategy “style change, cheap is the last word (1005th weekly strategy)” , we clearly expressed the view that “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” prevails in stages, and clearly communicated with you After re-examining the strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong two fund investment advisory strategy combinations, although the current two fund investment advisory strategy combinations have certain The growth style is inclined, but we may not make adjustments (in the near future, we may consider appropriately adjusting position varieties and lowering the starting point of investment amount).
Our investment strategy is consistent and in the same strain. After we fully consider and evaluate the opportunities and risks involved, we make a better strategy for the medium and long term, but if we fluctuate due to short-term market style drift, the result may be : It is better not to move than to move.
1. How to understand the stages of style
Looking back on the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, Hang Seng Index, and the three comprehensive indexes were all adjusted, and the entire market was in the process of shrinking and adjusting. Among the subdivided indexes, the consumer index was relatively prominent. Among them, China Securities Liquor closed up 2.21% for the week, and China Securities Tourism closed up 5.17% (Wind, 2022.12.16).
Regarding the phased dominance of the “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” style, in last week’s weekly strategy, we gave a detailed logical deduction. Judging from the current situation, everyone still has different understandings. Let me talk about our views .
First of all, style transfer may be a matter of high probability. From the data point of view, the subdivision indexes of CS new energy vehicles, China Semiconductor Chips, photovoltaic industry, and China Securities Military Industry have basically been declining since November. Trend, funds outflow obviously;
It is also verified in the publicly released “China Resources Trust Sunshine Private Equity Long Index November Report”: At the end of November 2022, among the stock assets of the CREFI index constituent funds, the average allocation ratio of the constituent stocks of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index was 37.43%, compared with the end of last month. rose by 0.97 percentage points;
The average allocation ratio of constituents of the CSI 500 Index was 11.29%, a decrease of 2.99 percentage points from the end of last month;
The average allocation ratio of ChiNext was 7.23%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the end of last month; the average allocation ratio of Hong Kong stocks was 21.30%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the end of last month.
In the past month, the allocation ratios of CSI 500 and ChiNext constituent stocks decreased, while the allocation ratios of Hong Kong stocks and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks increased.
Secondly, whether to participate or not depends on the actual situation of the individual.
We have always said that investment should not be biased. No matter what style or school it is, the important thing is whether you can seize the opportunity and increase the rate of return.
Regarding the “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” style this time, on the whole, we think it is phased, except for the direction of Hong Kong stocks, sustainability may not be enough.
For example: CSI Liquor, with the shrinking of the drinking population, the potential tax revenue is possible, and the valuation is not cheap. The TTM valuation is 35.07 times, which is 68.40% of the historical percentile;
Another example: China Securities Tourism, currently 4762.15 points, will increase by 13.99% as of December 16 in 2022, which is even higher than before the outbreak of the epidemic;
From an objective point of view, real estate has indeed fallen a lot, but where is the future demand? how many? (Wind, 2022.12.16)
Therefore, our overall judgment may be staged. Participation depends entirely on personal style and ability. From the perspective of our two fund investment strategy portfolio strategies, we have already prepared in advance what we should do, which is enough .
2. Why we are more optimistic about the direction of growth
We don’t want to be labeled with style labels, but this can only be said to be our own thinking. After all, others see you in a different way, and everyone will believe that what they see is real.
Our current strategy is more in the direction of growth in the medium and long term. Why is this so?
There are two main considerations.
The first and most important point is not so much to be optimistic about growth, but rather to be optimistic about the development of the times.
We look back, whether it is the US stock market, European stock market, Japanese stock market, or our A shares, the most valuable investment is a product of the times.
In the A-share market in 2007, the infrastructure and commodity cycles performed best, corresponding to the outbreak of demand for Chinese goods in the global market after China’s accession to the WTO;
The best performer in the market round in 2015 was Internet+, corresponding to the vigorous development of China’s Internet;
Then let’s think about it, if China’s economy wants to break through and develop, which industries should be the focus?
There is no doubt that it is science and technology, including semiconductor chips, new energy, national defense and military industry, and life sciences. Only by making breakthroughs in these directions can the country make further progress. In terms of investment, it can be said that we have no way out. To, believe again.
The second point is that the adjustment is already halfway through.
Looking at the trend of the GEM index, it has been adjusted since the end of 2021. If you look back, in fact, the highest point of 3576.12 points since the innovation in the market in 2018 on July 22, 2021 is considered to have started to adjust. Even if it is calculated from the end of 2021, it has been adjusted for one year.
In terms of valuation, the TTM valuation is 39.30 times, which is 17.45% of the historical percentile (Wind, 2022.12.16). Generally speaking, the adjustment of the ChiNext Index is at least halfway through. With the adjustment Continued and next year’s economic recovery, as a comprehensive index representing the growth style, the ChiNext Index has clearly entered the period of attention and layout.
3. What have we done?
Looking back at the strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong, the two fund investment strategy portfolios, since the upgrade in mid-February this year, we can clearly see that in the previous position adjustment reports, we have It shows that the focus on growth styles such as new energy, semiconductors, and national defense industries has been reduced, and the focus on broad-based and bond funds has increased.
This enables the two investment advisory portfolios to reduce the volatility and retracement rate of the portfolio on the basis of maintaining stability and progress.
On the basis of keeping a close eye on the development of the times, and on the basis of maintaining basic positions, we try our best to avoid the high risks of some industries and seize the opportunities of falling in other directions. Comprehensive experience in yield, volatility, retracement, etc.
Of course, what we can do is to do our best to do strategic research and analysis, and maintain seamless communication with investors, but we cannot make buying or redeeming decisions on behalf of investors. Maybe we think it is wrong after analysis. Investment opportunities are regarded as risks by investors, and there is nothing wrong with it.
I sincerely hope that everyone can realize their reasonable investment expectations.
4. Have confidence in the Chinese economy and be optimistic about the market in 2023
After the close of trading on Friday, the press release of the Central Economic Work Conference was released. The meeting highlighted five key tasks for next year, which are to focus on expanding domestic demand, speed up the construction of a modern industrial system, and earnestly implement the “two unswerving “, the fourth is to make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital, and the fifth is to effectively prevent and resolve major economic and financial risks.
There are still some differences in views on next year’s economic recovery and market trends. We are optimistic and positive.
First, the desire for economic development.
Our desire for economic development is very strong, and this meeting also revealed this attitude. Even in the face of various external troubles, the pursuit of economic development has not stopped.
Second, from a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index’s lowest point of 2684 points on April 27, 2022 and 2885 points on October 31, 2022, will most likely be the bottom area of this adjustment, and you can see the two bottoms With the influx of funds, the value of investment has been recognized.
As of the closing price of 3167.86 points after the close on December 16, 2022, it seems that the downward space may be limited, while the upward space seems to be larger with the growth of time and performance (data source: Wind).
Third, as a rule, when the economy tightens, there will be various support policies, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which will create conditions for the market to improve. If at this time, the market happens to be in a Relatively low positions, this probability will increase.
If the economy is overheated, it will induce various cooling policies instead, and the market will lack favorable external conditions. If the market is at a certain point and the valuation is relatively high at this time, then you should be careful.
The above is our weekly strategy for this week, the core point of view:
1. The style of “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” may continue to prevail.
2. The strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Niannianhong have already been dealt with.
3. Pay attention to the seesaw effect of “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” style and growth style.
4. Be optimistic and positive about the economy and market next year.
5. On Mondays, my family will regularly vote for a quiet profit and a red year.
I am silent, insisting on researching and analyzing funds every day,
An investment observation and reflection every trading day,
A “Fund Review” video every trading day,
A weekly strategy report is released every Sunday,
Maintain efficient communication and communication at any time, a fund investor who insists on improving research capabilities.
If you think the content is valuable, if you feel that Quiet Ying and Niannianhong Fund Investment Advisory Portfolio are trustworthy, and if you think the communication with consultants is very important, please like, leave a comment, and forward it. thanks.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee investors’ income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy instructions, fully understand the details of the portfolio and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio is in line with their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment goals. Investors should follow the principle of “buyer is responsible” when investing in fund investment advisory portfolio strategies. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operating characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment advisory portfolio strategies, investors should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own conditions. Combination strategies, cautiously make investment decisions, and independently bear investment risks. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee a certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The risk characteristics of fund portfolio strategies are different from those of individual fund products. The past performance of investment advisory services does not indicate its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. #Fund Creator Incentive#
@大徐子@底牛MR. HY @李海斌感动指数@基金复基金@Ricky @izhifu
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