Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1688
Japan’s balance sheet wants to struggle again
In the first quarter of this year, the capital expenditure of Japanese enterprises increased by 11% year-on-year, which was higher than the same period of the previous year for eight consecutive quarters. The capital expenditure of non-software Japanese enterprises was higher than the previous quarter for four consecutive quarters.
Research firm Mizuho Research & Technology said firms’ re-expansion of capital spending showed strong investment sentiment, especially in non-manufacturing industries, as domestic service consumption is picking up.
The industries that contributed the most to capital spending growth were business-oriented machinery (71.3%), real estate (27%) and cargo leasing and leasing (25%). According to statistics from market agencies, Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6% in May, which was the first time in the expansion range in the past seven months.
According to research by Koo Chao-ming, Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute, Japanese companies used to think about repaying debts instead of borrowing to expand in an environment of zero or even negative interest rates, which led to economic recession. In the end, they could only rely on the government to borrow money from banks to maintain a certain level of investment. increase.
We have noticed that since the first quarter of 2018, Japanese corporate (non-financial) and private leverage ratios have begun to pick up, reflecting their willingness to re-expand. The annualized new loans and discounts of local banks to small and medium-sized enterprises (12 consecutive months) reached 16.81 trillion yen (approximately 855.5 billion yuan) in April this year, second only to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
In addition, in the first quarter, Japan’s private consumption and private enterprise equipment investment drove nominal GDP growth by 3.1% and 1.4% respectively. The former was close to the high point since 1992, and the latter was close to the high point since 1995.
A recent survey by the Bank of Japan supports similar expansion judgments, arguing that the further relaxation of local restrictions on the new crown epidemic and the labor shortage caused by the return of international tourists have rekindled the investment impulse in the service industry in the short term. Harumi Taguchi, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, also sees strong growth in the manufacturing sector, especially in autos and processing.
Japan’s stock market benchmark, the Nikkei 225, is up 20.81% in 225 years, making it one of the best performing markets in the world. The 225 weighted companies achieved a profit growth of 2.7% in the first quarter despite a high base in the same period last year.
Not long ago, Buffett’s investment company expanded its investment in Japan, visited the local area with its successors, and met with the top leaders of Japan’s largest trading companies. At present, the Nikkei 225 index has surpassed its peak since July 1990, but it is still far from the peak before the bubble burst. (Gong Fangyi)
Tech Weekly 丨 Is GPT-4 Stupid?
This week, the focus for many people was not that GPT-4 got better, but that it seemed to get dumber. The source is a post on the technology news community Hacker News, and now the “Point” (an indicator to measure the popularity of a post) has reached 926, far exceeding the 100 or so of ordinary posts, which means that it is absolutely popular.
“GPT-4 generates more code errors, and the answers given no longer have depth.” The poster said that he feels that GPT-4 is much worse than before, and it is not clear whether he has become stupid or GPT -4 is stupid.
His feelings resonated with many people, and in the comment section of the post and on social platforms, many people mentioned similar situations: “The original GPT-4 was like magic to me, and I felt a sense of awe when I interacted with it .now it’s just a stupid random parrot.” “If I had it inspect the code, now it would prioritize giving a general overview. Earlier it would split the code into sections and inspect each section individually “.
An OpenAI engineer said on social media that the GPT-4 model has not changed since it was released in March, and the API (programming interface) will not be adjusted without notice. He did not respond to a question about whether the web version of GPT-4 was downgraded.
So far, OpenAI has not officially responded to the matter. It open-sourced a dataset this week to improve GPT-4’s ability to solve math problems.
François Chollet, an AI scientist at Google and author of the open-source neural network library Keras, says that GPT-4 may perform as well or better, and it’s people who change: “People have enough Time to interact with it and have more realistic expectations of what it can and can’t do – it’s lost its original aura”.
He reminded that the “AI can do X” (programming, writing, seeing a doctor) that people have accepted in the past six months is actually pure fiction. As people encounter various difficulties in reality, they will experience a sharp decline in artificial intelligence capabilities, followed by the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble.
According to data from SimilarWeb, a traffic analysis platform, the weekly visits to the ChatGPT website have dropped by 5% from 4.2 million in late April to 4 million at the end of May. The popularity of ChatGPT according to Google Trends also showed a similar downward trend. (He Qianming)
This year’s high temperature days are ahead of schedule, and preparations for peak electricity consumption in many places have also been advanced
Recently, high temperature weather in many places has attracted attention. On May 29, Shanghai recorded 36.6°C, the highest temperature recorded in a century; on May 30, the highest temperature in Guangzhou was 41.9°C, while the previous high temperature record in May was 36.9°C. On the same day, more than half of the weather stations in Guangdong recorded monthly high temperature record.
According to Xinhua News Agency, experts predict that the high temperature in summer this year will be weaker than last year, but the duration and range of high temperature will still be longer than normal. The National Climate Center also predicted in March that the summer temperature in most parts of the country this year will be close to the same period of the year or higher than normal, and some areas in Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui and other provinces are expected to be 1°C to 2°C higher.
Power consumption has also increased. On May 22, the peak load of China Southern Power Grid exceeded 200 million kilowatts for the first time this year, 35 days earlier than last year. The National Energy Administration predicts that the maximum power load in summer this year will be about 1.37 billion kilowatts, and it may reach 1.39 billion kilowatts under long-term and large-scale extreme high temperatures.
As of the end of last year, the installed capacity of power generation nationwide was 2.564 billion kilowatts, and theoretically the maximum power generation per hour was 2.56 billion kilowatt-hours. If we only look at thermal power with relatively stable supply, it can generate 1.33 billion kwh per hour.
According to the National Climate Center, this summer, northeastern Sichuan and most of Hubei are expected to still face dry weather. This week, Weiyuan, Sichuan, began restricting residents’ water use due to severe shortage of reservoir water. However, the overall thermal power supply may be more stable. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April this year, domestic production of raw coal increased by 4.8% year-on-year to 1.53 billion tons, and imported coal increased by nearly 90% to 140 million tons. The latest domestic thermal coal price is also nearly 50% lower than the 2021 high.
Guangming.com reported last week that recently, multiple departments have been stepping up research and supervision on the guarantee of coal power supply. Power companies such as Datang and Huadian said that they have formulated contingency plans, including making reserves in advance to avoid the impact of coal shortage on power generation and consumption. Many cities in Zhejiang have successively issued work plans for orderly electricity consumption in summer, and the Jiangsu provincial government recently held a power supply guarantee meeting, saying that it will firmly hold the bottom line of preventing power cuts.
Last summer, China recorded its highest average temperature since 1961. Among them, the regional high temperature weather in the central and eastern regions lasted for 79 days, bringing a series of extensive effects. For example, drought in Jiangxi and other places, crop water shortage and reduced production, reduced hydropower generation in Sichuan , reduced production in many enterprises due to power cuts, and confirmed cases of heat stroke and even death cases were reported in many places.
Among them, in Sichuan, where hydropower accounts for more than 80% of the total, the drought and water shortage led to a sharp drop in hydropower generation. Starting from August 15th , industrial power users were cut off for 11 consecutive days. , Beauty salons, teahouses and other non-living electricity consumption are limited, and the use of air-conditioning systems is suspended. Chongqing is also short of electricity. At one time, the lighting in local scenic spots was reduced by three quarters. During the same period, Shanghai also closed the lights in areas such as the Bund along the Huangpu River from August 22 to 23 in response to peak electricity consumption.
In the summer of 2021, there will also be large-scale power cuts in China, mainly due to the increase in thermal coal prices and the inability of thermal power plants to transfer costs, thereby reducing power generation and causing insufficient power supply. In Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places, some enterprises are required to only work for three days or even one day a week, and use electricity at off-peak times . (Lin Guangying)
Universal Music wants to buy all the copyrights of Queen for US$1 billion, which is equivalent to 1/4 of the entire market last year
Universal Music Group is said to be in talks with Disney Music Group to buy the music library of British rock band Queen. The deal, which could be concluded within a month, is worth more than $1 billion and could be the most expensive music rights acquisition in history.
The library Universal wants to buy includes Queen’s songwriting and recordings. If the deal goes through, Universal will have to pay for the use of Queen’s melodies and lyrics, as well as direct recordings of songs they sang.
However, Disney has currently denied plans to sell the music library.
Formed in 1970, Queen consists of vocalist Freddie Mercury, guitarist Brian May, drummer Roger Taylor and bassist John Deacon (John Deacon), “We are the Champions” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” are their most famous works. Lead singer Freddie Mercury died of AIDS in 1991, and John Deacon left the band a few years later. In 2005, Brian May and Roger Taylor reunited Queen and resumed their activities.
The total value of global music copyright acquisition transactions is generally around several billion US dollars, exceeding US$5 billion in 2021, and reaching more than US$4 billion last year. The sale of personal music libraries by musicians and songwriters, and the acquisition of each other by companies are the main forms of transactions. In addition to the three major record companies (Universal, Sony, Warner), music copyright investment companies such as Hipgnosis have bought the copyrights of many well-known musicians, and more investors such as private equity funds are paying more and more attention to this market.
The Queen Band has been active in the public eye for a long time, and its commercial value is higher than that of dead or retired musicians. They toured the world and held a concert in Shanghai in 2016. The film “Bohemian Rhapsody” took its influence to a new peak. The film’s box office reached 910 million US dollars, making it the highest-grossing music biographical film in history.
Before Queen, American rock singer Bruce Springsteen’s music library sold $550 million, a record at the time. Two deals for American folk singer Bob Dylan also totaled $500 million. The Beatles have never been able to package and sell their music library. Affected by many factors such as US law, copyright management companies, and band-related personnel, their copyright issues are extremely complicated. Paul McCartney (Paul McCartney) Sony was also sued in 2017.
Streaming media such as Spotify and Apple Music have amplified the commercial value of classic music works. Moreover, these musical works themselves have the characteristics of stable copyright income and long-term returns. More realistically, the rock stars of yore are now senile old people. Brian May and Roger Taylor, 76 and 73, respectively, need to get the rights to Queen done as quickly as possible to avoid the Beatles-like problems. (Intern Chang Junfei)
Lululemon is as anti-cycle as luxury goods
Inflation and weakening consumer confidence do not seem to affect lululemon. In the first quarter of this year, lululemon’s revenue increased by 24% year-on-year to US$2 billion. Management stated that the frequency of users’ purchases did not change due to inflation. In the quarter, lululemon China’s revenue also increased by nearly 80% year-on-year. The company subsequently raised its annual revenue forecast, sending its stock up 13% after hours.
lululemon has long been a benchmark case for sports brands. But more and more people believe that it is the rise of sports and leisure style that has allowed it to grow at a high speed for a long time.
According to the fashion industry, casual styles became popular in the United States in the 1970s, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs began to wear T-shirts to work in the 1980s, and the percentage of people who wore casual clothes to work increased from 7% to 75% in the 1990s. By the late 90s, sportswear was more of an everyday occasion, and by the early 2000s it was accepted by the general public.
As rules and boundaries become blurred, some more essential needs become mainstream, such as more comfortable wearing. Athleisure, on the other hand, means both functionality and style. In addition to looking good, people want more breathable fabrics and lighter soles. At present, in major European and American countries, the penetration rate of sportswear relative to the apparel market is 30% to 40% (about 14% domestically).
Compared with fashion brands doing research and development, sports brands may be relatively easier to do fashion. The industry believes that lululemon has seized this trend. They do have fabric technology, and more importantly, they design good-looking yoga clothes for women that can be worn every day. For a long time before that, sports and leisure were still a niche market, and a piece of sportswear may be designed for all users regardless of gender or age.
Today, the athleisure market has become crowded. Nike has the largest audience with its professional sports image, Adidas is actively cooperating with fashion stars, and Ang Pao, which specializes in professional running shoes, is more and more appearing in offices. Traditional fashion labels H&M, Gap, Zara, Levi’s, and even Brooks Brothers have also launched sportswear. However, the industry believes that thanks to high performance, sports brands can often sell at a higher premium.
Lululemon may be the most extreme example. Functionality provides a reason to sell high prices-a pair of yoga pants is about twice the price of Nike, which in turn gives it a social attribute similar to luxury, making people more willing to buy it Pay the bill. Since 2010, lululemon’s revenue has increased by more than 10 times, and its stock price has risen by more than 20 times. Now it seems that it is as anti-cyclical as luxury goods. (Lin Guangying and Qiu Hao)
OTHER NEWS
The National Standing Committee will study policy measures to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles.
According to the CCTV news broadcast, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council hosted an executive meeting of the State Council on June 2, and the topics included research on policies and measures to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry. The meeting mentioned that it is necessary to continue and optimize the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for new energy vehicles, further stabilize market expectations, optimize the consumption environment, and release the consumption potential of new energy vehicles to a greater extent. In the past 13 years, China has been implementing a purchase subsidy policy for new energy vehicles until it was terminated on December 31 last year .
The Fuzhou Real Estate Intermediary Industry Association revoked the guidance on commissions for second-hand housing transactions.
The association issued an opinion paper on May 30, mentioning that the commission for second-hand housing transactions should be borne by both buyers and sellers at 1.5%, and the total commission ratio is 3%. Implementation of intermediary fee specification opinions. In the early morning of the 2nd, the association issued a document saying that it would withdraw the above-mentioned opinion letter, saying that it could not grasp the opinion policy and deviated from the spirit of the superiors, and would study and understand it in depth to effectively reduce related transaction costs. “Information Times” reported two years ago that intermediary fees for second-hand housing in the market range from less than 1% to 3%.
Sales of China’s top 100 developers fell MoM in May.
The contracted sales of the top 100 mainland developers fell 14.1% MoM to RMB 549.2 billion in May. BOCOM International believes that this is mainly due to the slowdown in sales in second- and third-tier cities and fewer launches by developers during the long Labor Day holiday. Among the top ten developers, the number of state-owned enterprises remained at eight, leaving only two private enterprises, Country Garden and Longfor Real Estate.
In addition, sales of 26 listed developers fell 13.2% MoM in May, narrowing YoY growth to 2.6% from 28.7% in April. However, the average sales price of listed developers in May increased by 15.6% YoY, showing improvement and strong high-end demand.
Huang Zhenyu, former vice president of Magna, took over the Xiaomi car supply chain.
According to 36kr news, Xiaomi has made a number of high-level position adjustments. Among them, Huang Zhenyu, the vice president of the automotive department, is also the general manager of the supply chain department of the automotive department, reporting to Lei Jun, the CEO of the automotive department. Huang Zhenyu was the vice president of Magna China, an auto parts supplier. He participated in the production of the first model of the joint venture between BAIC BJEV and Magna, and has rich experience in supply chain control. In addition, Li Xiaoshuang, the former vice president in charge of the supply chain, turned to the marketing business and concurrently served as the general manager of the marketing department of the automotive department.
Qingdao reduces the down payment ratio for purchases in non-restricted areas.
The content of the new policy is to reduce the down payment, allow sales, and pilot the room ticket system, and at the same time stimulate rigid demand and improved housing demand, including:
- The down payment ratio in non-purchase-restricted areas is reduced to a minimum of 20% for the first set and 30% for the second set. Shinan and Laoshibei remain unchanged as purchase-restricted areas.
- The conditions for the sale of new commercial housing have been changed from 5 years of online signing to 3 years of online signing and 2 years of evidence collection, and the sales conditions of second-hand houses have been changed from 2 years of evidence collection to 1 year of evidence collection.
- Promote second-hand housing “with mortgage” and “excellent fresh sale” models, encourage shantytowns and urban villages to renovate, monetize and resettle, and pilot the housing ticket system.
According to Choice data, Qingdao’s new housing transaction volume has declined for two consecutive months after reaching 7,834 units in March.
Ten billion private equity pinellia investment sold real estate stocks at a loss and explained why.
In its May report, Pinellia Investment admitted that its net worth had fallen sharply last month, saying that on the one hand, it was due to the sharp drop in real estate stocks it held, and on the other hand, the destocking behavior in the lower reaches of the industrial chain caused the decline in long positions in commodities to be much greater than that in short positions. . Pinellia Investment also reviewed the causes and consequences of “real estate sales slipping out of the critical value”, including the decline in income expectations and the incomplete recovery of consumer confidence. Previously, Pinellia Investment predicted that the prosperity of the real estate industry would enter an upward cycle, but real estate demand fell again to a new low in the second quarter, and it is expected to bottom out in the first half of 2024.
According to JD.com, the number of new buyers driven by “618” was 30% more than that of the same period last year.
However, JD.com did not specify the statistical caliber (website, app or applet). At the same time, JD.com also announced various sales data as of June 1. The turnover of more than 30 home appliance brands such as Midea, Haier, and Gree exceeded 100 million yuan, and the turnover of mobile phone categories increased by 10 times year-on-year. Categories such as health care, services, landmark agricultural products, and online and offline integration have become new consumption growth points.
Meta shifted attitude towards telecommuting, requiring employees to work onsite 3 days a week.
On Thursday, Meta notified employees to come to the office to work at least 3 days a week from September this year, excluding employees who were originally employed in areas without offices. This is part of the company’s efficiency improvement plan this year. In March, the company also announced the layoff of 10,000 people. During the epidemic, CEO Zuckerberg allowed all employees to work remotely, saying that “good work can be done anywhere.” But he said in March that those who work on site perform better. Amazon also this year asked employees to return to the office three days a week, prompting hundreds of protests.
The threshold for paid-in capital and executives has been greatly increased. In May, only 2 private equity institutions in China passed the registration.
Since the “Private Equity Investment Fund Registration and Filing Measures” implemented on May 1 greatly increased the thresholds for paid-in capital, managers, and shareholders, only two private equity institutions passed the registration that month, setting a record low. There are 139 registered private equity institutions. According to the new private equity regulations, the paid-in monetary capital of fund managers must not be less than 10 million yuan, and nearly half of the existing private equity funds do not meet this condition. In addition, the new regulations also require private equity fund executives to have more than five years of relevant work experience.
The new crown has become the infectious disease with the largest number of reported cases in Beijing for 5 consecutive weeks.
According to the weekly epidemic report for the 21st week of this year (May 22 to May 28) released by the Beijing Municipal Health Commission, a total of 30,750 cases of 16 statutory infectious diseases were reported in Beijing that week. Among them, the number of reported cases of new coronavirus infection has ranked first among infectious diseases for 5 consecutive weeks, and the overall number of cases of legal infectious diseases has increased by more than 5,000 cases from the previous week.
Meta released a new MR headset before Apple.
On June 1, local time, Meta CEO Zuckerberg officially announced the latest MR head-mounted display device Meta Quest 3 on his personal Instagram. The new device has stronger performance and is thinner and lighter. The price starts at $499.99. One of the highlights of Quest 3 The ability to integrate virtual reality has been greatly improved, and users can directly wear head-mounted display devices to move naturally in the real world. However, details of the device will have to wait until September’s Meta Connect conference, before it’s expected to go on sale.
Meta usually does not announce new hardware products until the Connect conference in September. This time, it is likely that Apple will officially release its first MR head-mounted display device at WWDC on June 6, 4 days later. At the end of last month, Meta also invited senior Apple reporter Mark Gurman to experience Quest 3. After Gurman’s evaluation, Quest 3 has great advantages in MR experience, full-color see-through function and content library, especially the price is only one-sixth of Apple’s estimated price, and it may become Apple’s biggest competitor to MR.
Apple will open a number of new stores around the world and expand a number of stores.
According to media reports, Apple is planning to build, relocate or renovate 53 retail stores in the next four years, with the focus of expansion on the Asia-Pacific region, especially India, the new growth engine. In the Chinese market, Apple will open a new store in Wenzhou later this year and upgrade the flagship store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai. Next year, it will open new stores in Jing’an Temple in Shanghai and Foshan, Guangdong.
Apple currently has more than 520 stores in 26 countries and regions, about half of which are located in the United States. Internally, the company divides stores from small to large: “standard stores” in shopping malls, “Apple Store+” that can be arranged along the street, “flagship stores” located in key areas, and the largest “flagship store+”. Among them, the annual revenue of “standard stores” usually exceeds 40 million US dollars, and the annual revenue of the largest “flagship store +” usually exceeds 100 million US dollars.
Victoria’s Secret turned a profit in China in the first quarter, and will reshape the fashion show in the form of a documentary.
Underwear brand Victoria’s Secret (Victoria’s Secret)’s quarterly sales as of April 29 fell 5% year-on-year to $1.4 billion, and comparable sales fell 11% year-on-year. Net income fell sharply by 70% to $25 million, mainly due to heavy promotional activities, while inventory levels of the main brand also fell by double digits. The company stated at the performance meeting that the international business has grown strongly, of which “China is particularly prominent”, and has turned losses into profits.
During Tmall’s “618” promotion period, Victoria’s Secret’s sales in the first 4 hours exceeded 32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 200%, ranking the top three in Tmall’s women’s underwear and homewear categories. At the same time, the company stated at the performance meeting that it is “reshaping the fashion show.” This year, artists from all over the world will be invited to participate in an event called “Victoria’s Secret Global Fashion Awards”, which will be filmed in the form of a documentary and broadcast in the fall. The Victoria’s Secret Show, which was previously dominated by model catwalks, will be suspended in 2021.
Goldman plans to continue layoffs and expects trading revenue to decline in the current quarter.
On Thursday, the president of Goldman Sachs Group said that it expects trading revenue to fall by a quarter this quarter and will continue to lay off staff, mainly because of sluggish global capital market activity and “a very challenging macro backdrop.” The company did not disclose the number of layoffs, but a person familiar with the matter said that 250 jobs will be cut within a few weeks. In January, the company laid off 3,200 employees, accounting for 6%, the largest layoff since the 2008 financial crisis. On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley also said it expected a “significant decline” in quarterly trading revenue, while “investment banking is also very challenging.”
China Post continued to cross borders, and the first post office teahouse and ice cream post office opened in Foshan.
A few days ago, China Post PostTea post office teahouse and PostGelano ice cream post office opened in Foshan, Guangdong. The newly opened store is next to the first domestic Postcake post office opened by China Post last year.
China Post has been actively cross-border retail. In mid-2021, the first milk tea shop “Youyang Tea” opened in Fujian, but the response was mediocre. At the beginning of last year, the first post office coffee opened in Xiamen, and now it has opened many stores in Beijing, Nanjing and other places. Previously, the Postal Service also cooperated with pharmacies and supermarkets to open stores. In 2010, it claimed to create a “rural version of Wal-Mart”, but it lost money one after another, and all stores in Jiangxi, Shandong and other places closed down.
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