Jin Zicai of Caitong is a fund manager that I pay more attention to personally.
First, because his overall performance in the past was quite good;
Second, his ideas and views are relatively unique, he will not follow the crowd, and his holdings are relatively special;
The third is that he is relatively good in industry rotation, and his predictions in the past few years are relatively accurate. Of course, this is also inseparable from the overall bull market.
Therefore, the quarterly report of Caitong Value Momentum managed by him will basically be read relatively carefully.
Judging from the quarterly report data for the fourth quarter this time, it also verified the previous judgment, that is, Jin Zicai had already cleared the pork stocks, and then added a large amount of thermal power stocks.
Judging from the latest top ten holdings, Jin Zi has just cleared all the individual stocks in the farming industry chain, whether it is pig raising, pork wholesale, or selling pig feed stocks, all of them have been sold. Really did not stay, very firm.
Then I increased my position in the thermal power sector significantly, not only increasing the proportion of the original holdings, but also adding several new stocks, such as Guangdong Electric Power A and Wanneng Electric Power. The proportion of thermal power stocks is very high, exceeding 37 % is also the industry with the highest proportion, which is basically the single-voltage thermal power industry.
In addition to a substantial increase in the thermal power sector, some tourism and hotel stocks have also been added, such as Junting Hotel, CYTS and Lijiang. , the buying price is really not very suitable.
For this position change, Jin Zicai also gave his own explanation.
The reason for reducing the position of hog farming stocks is that the price of pigs is relatively low due to the sluggish economy and consumption, and the high price of pigs cannot be sustained.
personal opinion:
After rising in June, the price of pork has fallen again. Although there is a reason for relatively low consumption, it is actually because the removal of fertile sows is not complete and the supply of live pigs is very sufficient. Therefore, after the price rises, there will be a lot of supply, which will lead to a sharp drop in the price of pigs.
The increase in tourism and hotel stocks is because he believes that due to the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, the suppressed service industries such as hotels and tourism will usher in a recovery, and their performance will be relatively good.
personal opinion:
Sectors such as tourism and hotels actually started to rise before they were released. I don’t know when he moved his position. If he bought it in October, it would be very good. But if it is a recent surge and increase in positions, then it is a bit of a problem.
Of course, judging from the individual stocks bought, they bought relatively marginal Junting Hotel and Lijiang Tourism, etc. Fortunately, they were not airline and airport stocks that had soared before, otherwise it would be nothing.
The reason why he bought the thermal power sector is that he believes that the cost of coal and components will drop, and thermal power is still an important force for stabilizing the power system. In addition, future electricity consumption will increase, so the investment value of thermal power is relatively high.
personal opinion:
Thermal power companies are relatively special, that is, they buy coal from coal-producing companies and then sell the generated electricity to grid companies. Therefore, the cost of power generation is mainly the money to buy coal, and the income can only rely on selling electricity.
However, in the industry chain of “coal production-power generation-power supply”, thermal power companies are the weaker party, because the power price is not determined by the market, but by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the power generation companies have no pricing power, so they say no Forget it, the price of electricity cannot increase with the increase of demand,
In terms of buying coal, it is also a disadvantaged party. The price of coal purchases is basically determined by coal companies. When the price of coal falls, power generation companies can buy coal at a lower price, the cost of power generation is relatively low, and thermal power companies can still make relatively good profits.
But if the price of coal continues to rise, then you can only buy coal at a high price, then the cost of power generation will be relatively high, and the income may not be able to cover the cost, and there will be losses. In fact, thermal power companies have suffered substantial losses in the past two years because of high coal prices.
In 2023, whether thermal power companies can turn losses into profits or reduce losses, the key point is not the increase in electricity consumption, but whether the cost side can be reduced, that is, the price of coal will fall, if the price of coal is still at a high level , then thermal power companies will continue to lose money, and the more they generate, the more they will lose. However, if coal prices fall, the profits of thermal power companies will increase, and the collective loss-making situation of the industry in the past one or two years will be improved.
Therefore, Jin Zi bought the thermal power sector at this time, betting on the next drop in coal prices. If coal prices do fall, then thermal power stocks will perform well in the future. I have followed in the footsteps of buying pig stocks.
Regarding Jin Zicai’s transformation from a pig stock to the current thermal power company, I have personally given two more interesting labels, that is, the past “pork gold” has become the current “thermal power talent”. Of course, there is no malice in this.
Of course, as in my previous personal opinion, the probability of a sharp drop in coal prices is relatively low, and the cost of thermal power companies will drop, but it will be difficult to achieve a sharp drop. The space in the thermal power sector is relatively limited, and we can continue to give Jin Zicai A certain amount of time, but don’t have too high expectations.
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