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The total amount of lithium resources that can be developed in the world is abundant, and the distribution areas are highly concentrated. According to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), as of the end of 2021, the world’s proven lithium reserves are 22 million tons (89 million tons of lithium resources), equivalent to about 120 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. Lithium ore distribution areas are highly concentrated. In terms of reserves, nearly 90% of the world’s reserves are mainly distributed in Chile, Argentina, Australia, China, and the United States (the total reserves of lithium ore resources in the five countries are 19.35 million tons, accounting for 86.3 %).
The supply structure tends to be diversified, and the progress of capacity release varies. With the successive launch of projects under construction and expansion around the world, the supply structure and regions of lithium resources will be further diversified. Before 2023, the resumption and expansion of Australian projects will be the main focus. In the second half of 2023, with the commissioning of the South American Salt Lake Project, the supply pattern will gradually change. After 2024, with the commissioning of African greenfield projects and Chinese lithium mine projects, lithium The tight supply and demand of resources is expected to be gradually eased. We predict that the global supply of lithium resources from 2022 to 2025 will be 815,400, 110,040, 1,382,000, and 1,753,200 tons, with increments of 238,000, 285,000, 281,600, and 371,200 tons, respectively.
Energy transformation, green development, and the demand for lithium batteries are at the right time. With the continuous advocacy of “dual carbon” and the comprehensive realization of green economic policies at home and abroad, the global lithium battery industry has entered a stage of rapid development. Optimizing emissions of power and transportation systems is the top priority in achieving carbon reduction goals, and as a bridge between coordinated energy transformation and automotive transformation, the development of power batteries and energy storage batteries will be a key factor in promoting the industrialization of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries. Key drivers for further upgrades in materials technology.
The tight supply and demand support the high price of lithium, and the resource end has become the biggest bottleneck. Due to various factors such as government approval, infrastructure conditions, capital and technology, the development of lithium resources is often slower than expected. At the same time, overseas countries have recently tightened development policies on key mineral resources. Next year, the lithium market supply will still be maintained. rigidity. We believe that lithium resources may continue to maintain tight supply and demand in the next 1-2 years, and lithium prices will remain high.
Investment suggestion: Driven by the dual-carbon policy, the fields of new energy vehicles and energy storage are developing rapidly, driving the continuous increase in demand for lithium. The development of lithium resources is subject to various factors such as policies, environmental protection, and the epidemic. We expect that the industry will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the next few years, supporting the high price of lithium. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with high resource self-sufficiency and significant growth.
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