Is LONGi’s expansion of production this time because of the initiative to expand production in accordance with the principle of “no lead, no production expansion”, or is it forced to expand production because of too much demand?
In the eyes of Longji fans, as long as Longji expands production, it must be because Longji has mastered black technology. They even imagined the details of Longi’s two black technologies:
One of the black technologies is HPBC, which can sweep everything at the high end.
The second black technology is another battery that can sweep everything at the low end (although no one can name this battery, it is generally believed that this large-scale production expansion must be due to the invention of this mysterious battery by LONGi).
Longi has always pursued not leading and not expanding production. Therefore, since this is the largest expansion of Longi in the past two years, and the amount is so huge, it must be because of the big move-this is the secret joy of all Longi fans.
However, Longfan seems to have forgotten the following two basic rules:
1. The efficiency of photovoltaic modules has a theoretical limit. It does not mean that if you hold back for two years and invest tens of billions, you will definitely be able to greatly improve the efficiency. The truth is: there is not much room for improvement in photovoltaic cell efficiency.
Those who assume that battery efficiency can continue to be greatly improved are themselves against the laws of science .
2. The global demand for photovoltaic modules is extremely huge. Whether you like it or not, scale must be the only way and the final outcome of the photovoltaic industry. In other words, the most powerful component supplier must be the one with the strongest scale capability.
Those who try to expand the scale after mastering the absolute leading technology are themselves against the laws of economics .
Current photovoltaics have the following two notable features:
1. The intensity and speed of technical iterations have slowed down significantly. The truth is: small gains in efficiency take a long time to achieve, at an uneconomical cost, and are quickly caught up by adversaries.
2. The growth rate of the demand side is extremely fast. The global total installed capacity in the past three years has increased by 40% every year, and it is very likely to exceed 1000GW by 2030.
Under such two backgrounds, if we continue to pursue “no lead, no production expansion”, it is actually tantamount to missing market opportunities, and we will see our competitors devouring our market share.
General conclusion: Under such two backgrounds, the appropriate strategy is likely to be: even if the technology is not very advanced, the expansion must be expanded .
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