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Lao Hong has always wondered why the photovoltaic industry is the best industry and LONGi is the best photovoltaic company, but why so many photovoltaic stock investors don’t like it. It is said that it is conservative, the information is not public enough, the technology is backward and it is unreasonable, etc., and the stock of LONGi has also continued to decline for two years.
On the evening of the last working day in 2022, Longji’s Zhong Baoshen and financial observer Qin Shuo had a year-end dialogue “Growing to the Sun Across Cycles”. From Zhong Baoshen’s many answers, Lao Hong seemed to understand why Longji was not popular, because Longji It seems to lack “wolf nature”.
Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China’s economy has developed rapidly. From 2000 to 2019, the GDP has increased by 10 times. The Chinese people are used to hearing how much money they earn, how much they will earn tomorrow, and the most comments on successful business cases. It is “wolf nature”. But the current LONGi not only seldom talks about making money, but also about technology leadership. On the contrary, it always talks about “goodwill economics”. Even the grand launch of Hi-Mo6’s latest technology products, it said more about “one step closer to customers” (“What do you want to release the most at the Hi-Mo6 product launch?”). This kind of thinking is common throughout Longji Company. As soon as the “dialogue” ended, Chen Pengfei, the boss of Longji New Energy Company, shouted in the WeChat circle of friends: “Longji, Xiangyang Company of goodwill economics. Zhong Dong’s year-end dialogue made the Our confidence has doubled!”
In short, Longji will give people a feeling that everything is good, but people who are good at everything often give people a feeling that they lack “wolf nature”. From this perspective, Longji has lost a lot.
You can see what Zhong Baoshen said in the “Dialogue”: “Longji’s goal is to be a friend of time”, “There has always been a very critical element in the development of Longji: look at the problem from the essence, do things with focus, and Persevere. We have been thinking about how to compete in the future and what we can bring to customers in the future.” “If an enterprise wants to survive for a long time, it must have sufficient goodwill towards the society.” Lao Hong likes to hear these words very much, but many stock investors may not like to hear them, and they may not be able to listen to them. For them, what LONGi can bring to “customers” and “society” is not the most important thing to hear, but how much benefit it can bring them when and when.
Zhong Baoshen also said: “For LONGi, the overall development speed in 2023 should be faster than that in 2022. The development process is more reflective of ‘moistening everything silently’, and there will be no astonishing things like satellite launches.” Hearing this, Lao Hong, who knows a little about stock investors, would think that Longji’s stock is doomed now. Fortunately, the A-share market will not open the next day. In fact, when the market opened after the festival on January 3, the broader market rose, while Longji’s stock fell, and it even fell by 3.15% at the close on the 4th. Lao Hong really likes a hard-working, unpretentious company like Longji, but many stock investors must not like it. They need Longji to work hard and keep releasing “satellites”.
After paying attention to “Snowball” for two years, Lao Hong struggled for two years, and slowly finally understood some similarities and differences between industry researchers and many stock investors. Although they are all highly optimistic about the photovoltaic industry, industry researchers focus on whether they can see what the company looks like. If they believe that it is an excellent company, they will not worry about its long-term earnings; Knowing the growth rate of this company’s revenue tomorrow, will the actual revenue of this company be higher than the expected revenue? Will the new technology of this enterprise bring unexpected benefits tomorrow? If the short-term income of this enterprise does not meet the “actuarial” results of stock investors, I am sorry to vote with my feet. In this era when there is no cost to scolding people, it is quite relieved to scold the research of those industrial researchers. After a long time, Lao Hong also understood why the painstaking research has become a “kneeling and licking” enterprise.
The current China has become different from the past, and some of the thinking of stock investors should change. Unlike many declining developed countries, most people have no possibility of wealth growth, just like Japan. The Chinese economy is different. It is still on the way up. It is just that the chances of getting rich overnight in the past 40 years have become less and less, and “long-termism” is needed. Investing in this era needs to be enshrined by stock investors as “the avenue is invisible but I have style” said: “People who are not willing to get rich slowly often don’t get rich quickly.”
The current photovoltaic industry has also begun to become different from the past, and some thinking of photovoltaic stock investors should also change. In 2020, the photovoltaic industry began to enter the era of complete marketization with affordable grid access and no subsidies. The impulse of capital quickly changed the photovoltaic market from roughly balanced supply and demand to short supply and rising prices, and photovoltaic enterprises changed from making money for everyone to one where only excellent companies can make money era. In the past two months, the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers have plummeted by more than 40%. A several-year knockout competition for photovoltaic companies has begun. The photovoltaic industry will continue to grow at a high speed, but not all companies will grow at a high speed, but some companies will After being eliminated, some enterprises will obtain monopoly income and long-term income. Investing in this era of photovoltaics, those companies that make short-term quick money through the rise of the industry are not at ease, while those companies that want to earn long-term profits for the sake of customers for a long time are much more at ease.
References:
“LONGi’s 2022 Year-end Dialogue, the full text of the essence version is here”
“Since 2000, China’s GDP has increased by 10 times, while Japan has only increased by 1.64%. What about the United States? “
“What do you most want to release at the Longji Hi-Mo6 product launch conference? “
Hongwei
2022.12.30.
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