Muyuan’s monthly slaughter data is the best reference table for the pig cycle.
01
Starting from June 2021, the price of pigs fell below the cost line of Muyuan, and the pig cycle came to a sudden death and fell into a trough all of a sudden, without even passing time.
From August to October 2021, it is the first bottom of the cycle, and there are too many pigs. During this period, the fattening capacity was lost, and the breeding sows were also eliminated in large numbers. At the same time, the monthly breeding was also reduced. The fattening and slaughtering corresponding to breeding in this time period is exactly from July to October 2022. It is precisely because of the fact that from August to October in 2021, the breeding and breeding decrease month by month, that the price of pigs from July to October this year has increased month by month.
If pushed further down.
From January to April 2022, this is the second bottom of the cycle, and this round of bottoming completely killed the dream of pig farmers.
Different from 2018, this round is a strangulation after adding leverage to many large-scale pig companies. Therefore, it is also the first time that Muyuan has lost four consecutive quarters.
The breeding from January to April 2022 corresponds to the period from December 2022 to April 2023, which means that the price of pigs will continue to rise from November to December 2022, and the price of pigs will not be lower than 9 until April 2023. Monthly average pig price.
From April to June 2023, two factors will restrict the rise of pig prices: one is the seasonal consumption off-season; the other is that high pig prices have suppressed some consumption, and consumption elasticity will play a role.
How will pig prices evolve in the second half of 2023?
Then look at the monthly average price of commercial pigs in Muyuan in the second half of this year. Since July, the average pig price has been increasing month by month. Cash flow returns month by month. The first is that the breeding will increase month by month, and the second is that the breeding will increase month by month. From July to September in Muyuan, the breeding has just increased month-on-month in August, so the breeding should start to increase from September, corresponding to That is, the commercial pigs will be released from August to September 2023.
If you consider that the current piglet price has not risen sharply, it means that the farmers are not active in making up the block, which means that the farmers are beginning to become cautious.
So next year is the year of the golden pig, for Muyuan.
02
In the first half of the year, it is predicted that Muyuan will be able to make back the 5.1 billion lost in the first quarter in a certain month in the second half of the year.
Many friends think it is crazy, and some friends roughly calculate that the price of pigs in the second half of the year will only be possible to reach more than 25 yuan. Yes, that’s right, the average monthly price of pigs can reach more than 25.5 yuan. Didn’t reach this month?
In September, the revenue was 11.959 billion, of which 4 billion was net profit. Net profit margin is over 30% and will be even higher in October.
03
Not much to say about policy. When the price of pigs is low, the government purchases and reserves to protect the enthusiasm of farmers; when the price of pigs is high, it will be subsidized to the common people. This is correct. $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
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