The first brother and the second brother in the pig breeding industry also issued an announcement on maintaining the stability of pig prices. This is also the first time.
Apparently, Fage conducted the window guidance.
Two signals are revealed:
1. The large-scale breeding enterprises in the industry have begun to take shape. The leading position is established, and leading enterprises begin to have the right to speak.
2. The policy-led resource allocation lays the foundation for the subsequent suppression of large fluctuations in the pig cycle.
In the cycle from 2018 to 2022, Muyuan has benefited the most. In just five years, the inclination given by the policy has achieved leapfrog development.
The resources given by the society should be given back to the society.
From the monthly average price of commercial pigs in Muyuan:
September 2021 RMB 11.49/kg
In September 2022, the inferred average price will exceed 23 yuan. The growth rate was higher than that in August. The rate of pork consumption expenditure in September must also exceed that in August, so the CPI may further increase.
Of course, that’s something that Fager should pay attention to. Therefore, the slow rise is the last word.
From the changes in the net interest rate of Muyuan from 2014 to 2021, the cycle characteristics can be clearly seen.
Cycle troughs in 2014 and 2018,
The 2015 and 2019 cycles climbed,
2016 and 2020 cycle boom years,
2017 and 2021 cycle decline years.
As a result, 2022 actually corresponds to 2018, the trough of the cycle, and the year when a new cycle begins.
It is roughly estimated that the net profit margin of Muyuan in 2022 will be around 15%. This is the highest at the trough of the cycle, because the sharp drop in pig prices in the second half of last year shared this year’s loss-making profits.
Therefore, 2023 is a year between the climbing wave and the boom, and the net interest rate is between 30% and 40%. If the slaughter plan comes out, it is also very good to infer the net profit.
From this new round of the pig cycle, it may be felt that the cycle has begun to smooth out, and profit margins will no longer fluctuate. At least it can be reflected in Muyuan. $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
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