Machine tool industry: the country’s most important industrial machine tool, domestic substitution is imperative (report attached)

Investment points

Status: Industrial mother machine, the country’s most important weapon. On August 19, 2021, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held an enlarged meeting, mentioning industrial mother machines for the first time, and emphasizing the strengthening of key core technology research in areas such as industrial mother machines, high-end chips, new materials, and new energy vehicles. The importance of the mother machine and the attention at the national level. Machine tools are the basic equipment of all industrial manufacturing, so they are called “industrial mother machines”; among them, CNC metal cutting machine tools are the most important branch of the machine tool industry.

Pattern: China’s machine tool industry is large but not strong, and the industry concentration needs to be improved. China is the world’s largest machine tool production and sales country. In 2021, the consumption will be about 170.4 billion yuan, accounting for 33.6% of the world; the output value will be about 157.4 billion yuan, accounting for 30.8% of the world. Due to the late development of China’s machine tool industry, it presents a large but not strong industrial structure. In the field of metal cutting machine tools, the import volume in 2021 is about 31.2 billion yuan, and the import dependence is about 35.3%. High-end CNC machine tools are especially dependent on imports. According to the statistics of the Prospective Research Institute, the localization rate of my country’s high-end CNC machine tools in 2018 is only about 6%. . The scale of domestic machine tool manufacturers is relatively small, and the industry concentration needs to be improved. In 2020, the CR5 of metal cutting machine tool listed companies is less than 9%.

Demand: The update cycle is superimposed with new demand, and the machine tool industry continues to be prosperous. The update cycle of CNC machine tools is about 10 years. The last peak period of China’s machine tool consumption was 2010-2014. Taking 10 years as the update cycle, China’s machine tool consumption has entered the update and replacement cycle around 2020. In 2021, China’s machine tool consumption Consumption was about 170.4 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 22.6% year-on-year. From the perspective of the industrial inventory cycle, my country may enter the stage of active inventory replenishment in the second half of 2023, which will stimulate the growth of investment in production equipment such as machine tools. In addition, the development and growth of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and wind power will continue to drive new demand for CNC machine tools. According to our calculations, only the integrated die-casting process can bring an average annual new demand for machine tools of 2.24 billion yuan. Therefore, we believe that under the resonance of renewal and new demand, the machine tool industry will maintain a high degree of prosperity in the next three years.

Trend: The safety of the industrial chain cannot be ignored, and domestic substitution is imperative. High-end CNC machine tools and CNC systems are strictly controlled by developed countries, prohibiting foreign sales or fully opening functions. Under the background of accelerating the construction of a manufacturing power and achieving high-quality development in my country, the problem of “stuck neck” of high-end CNC machine tools is more prominent. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has twice emphasized the protection of the security of the supply chain of the industrial chain. As an industrial mother machine, it is more urgent to speed up domestic substitution in the high-end field, and may usher in incremental policy support. In addition, private machine tool manufacturers represented by Haitian Precision and Kede CNC are striving to develop high-end CNC machine tools and actively improve product performance and quality. It is expected that the domestic substitution of high-end CNC machine tools will accelerate.

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