May 1st movie file, hanging

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Text / Edited by Han Ying / Zhou Xiaoqi

Source: Wired Insight (ID: lxinsight)

The epidemic is still spreading, and this year’s movie “May 1st” has been suspended.

Judging from the current epidemic situation, most communities in Shanghai have not yet been unblocked, and first-tier cities with high spending power such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou are also more or less affected by the epidemic.

After experiencing the “bleak” “Qingming Festival”, some films lost confidence in this year’s “May 1st Gear”.

Judging from the current information, 11 films that were originally to be released during May Day this year, including love, comedy, crime, animation, etc., have already announced the withdrawal of five films. The recently popular “Keeping You Safe” also chose to quit.

At present, the only films that are still clear to be released on May 1st are the domestic love film “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationships” and the animated film “Bad Guys”, which will be released on April 29.

“According to this trend, it is estimated that ten films may withdraw this week.” Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright director, predicted to Wired Insight.

This statement does not seem exaggerated. The epidemic situation across the country is still in the stage of multiple recurrences. With the strict control of the epidemic situation, cinemas in many cities are also closed.

To withdraw or not to withdraw is indeed a question worthy of consideration. More importantly, after losing the Qingming stall, if the “May 1st stall” is deserted again, the audience’s enthusiasm for the cinema will gradually decrease, and the film industry does not know when it will be able to wait for a booster.

There is still a week left before this year’s May 1st grade. What results can the May 1st grade be able to deliver in the end?

01 The tide of withdrawal has begun

As one of the most important holidays of the year, May 1st has always been a “strife” for major filmmakers.

Regrettably, at present, five films have been announced to withdraw from the May 1st this year, which makes the outside world think of the collective withdrawal of domestic films in Qingming.

On April 18, the animated film “Pig Man Movie Ocean Diary” posted on the official Weibo account that the original release plan for April 30 was cancelled, the May 1st file was withdrawn, and the new schedule was announced on a new date. The filmmakers said: “We believe that the haze of the epidemic will eventually dissipate, and the days of enjoying wonderful parent-child time in theaters will eventually come.”

On April 22, in less than five hours, three films, “Hello, Brother”, “The Procuratorate” and “Hello, Beijing”, were successively announced to be withdrawn.

On April 23, the previously well-received comedy film “Keeping You Safe” also announced the cancellation of its plans to release on May 1st.

Without exception, like the Qingming archives that experienced a major retreat, the reason for the withdrawal of the above-mentioned movies is still due to the repeated epidemics across the country.

You must know that the number of people who want to watch “Keep You Safe” exceeded 60,000, which was originally the second place in the May 1st want to watch list. This movie starring Dapeng, Ma Li, Li Xueqin, etc., as you can see from the cast, has a strong comedy gene.

“Pig Man Movie Ocean Diary” is regarded as the seed player of this year’s May 1st. In the same period last year, the sixth major film in the “Pig Man” series, “Pig Man Movie: Dinosaur Diary”, had a total box office of over 70 million yuan, breaking the series box office record and breaking many box office records for domestic animations during the schedule.

Obviously, the withdrawal of files because of the epidemic is a helpless move by the filmmakers, and it is also a means for them to protect themselves.

This also means that there are only youth romance films “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationship” and “Meet You”, animated films “Bad League”, “I Am Tyrannosaurus Rex”, “The Awakening of Mini World” and “The Fantastic Adventure of the Little Mermaid”. Six films continued to “stay behind” on May 1st.

Among the six films, “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationships” is currently the most popular film in the May 1st category.

Judging from the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the number of people who want to watch “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationship” has reached 73,000, ranking first in the list of people who want to watch it. In fact, the film starred Ren Min and Xin Yun, who previously co-starred in “Sadness Against the Current,” which earned 337 million at the box office.

In terms of publicity, “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationships” is also in the first place. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, up to now, the film has a total of eight marketing events, with the most content being movie specials, trailers and MVs.

Pushing the time forward, “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationships” was initially set for May 20, and last month, it was announced that it would be raised to April 29. With such high-frequency publicity, it can also be seen that this movie wants to start the “first shot” of this year’s May 1st gear.

An interesting phenomenon is that the announcement of the above-mentioned films has now stopped. Perhaps referring to the experience of the collective withdrawal of the Qingming files, the above-mentioned films were significantly more cautious than the previous film “Life Events” originally scheduled to be released on the Qingming file.

“The epidemic has caused many uncertainties in the release date of the film. The filmmaker will not invest too much in the announcement, and the overall cost may be less than 30%. Even if the film is withdrawn, the filmmaker will not lose too much.” Xiang Kai told Wired Insight.

Another obvious trend is that this year’s May 1 comedy is undoubtedly the most popular theme, and several animated films have also been subdivided into animated comedy films.

This is actually not difficult to understand. In the three years of epidemic prevention and control, the pace of life in many cities has been disrupted, and audiences also need comedy films that bring them joy. “To be honest, the emotions of the people who are suppressed by the epidemic are not particularly good, and the filmmakers have already figured out the audience’s mind.” Xiang Kai said.

Although the subject matter and quantity of the films are richer than those of the Qingming Festival, Xiang Kai still expressed his concerns about the May 1st grade. “According to the current situation, the results of the May 1st grade release are not very optimistic.”

02 Lost the Qingming gear, and the May 1st gear is also suspended

As five films have been withdrawn one after another, the wave of Chinese film withdrawals has struck again, and this year’s May 1st file seems to be suspended.

According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of April 23, 2022, the total number of operating theaters nationwide was 6,380, with an overall operating rate of 53%.

Comparing these figures with the Qingming period on April 5, the total number of operating theaters in the country increased by 1,002, and the overall operating rate increased by 8.3%.

Although the number and operating rate of movie theaters have increased, the overall operating rate is still low. “This is a very small data, even completely negligible in the glory days of our film.” Xiang Kai admitted frankly.

More importantly, in Shanghai, the city with the worst epidemic in the country, the number of movie theaters still operating is 0. In addition, the operating rate and attendance rate of cinemas in the epidemic areas such as Jilin and Heilongjiang are also very low.

“92 cities across the country are controlling the resumption rate and attendance rate of movie theaters. Chengdu, Guangzhou and other cities are listed, and the box office chance of movies released on May 1 is very small.” Xiang Kai said bluntly.

Xiang Kai told Wired Insight, “If many films from the May 1st file are withdrawn, in order to ensure that there are films available in the cinema, the cinema may take the method of extending the release time of the Qingming films.”

In fact, the operating rate of the theater has just reached 50%, and the loss is not only the theater, but also the psychological state and expectations of the audience.

As the epidemic has become more contagious, many viewers have developed resistance to confined spaces such as movie theaters. Movie theaters are not the first choice for audiences to watch movies, which invisibly affects the business of movie theaters.

Some people in the industry believe that when the national operating rate is above 70%, the release of the film will be more secure. If the first-tier cities account for 65%, it will be ideal.

But obviously, the current operating rate of cinemas is not enough to support the release of films. In order not to let their films become “victims” of the schedule, it is not difficult to understand the withdrawal of the five films mentioned above.

According to the logic of the past, only after the major cities across the country have basically achieved social zero, will cinemas officially resume work.

Luckily, stimulated by audience demand, the film industry will have the success of last year’s Spring Festival program “Hello, Li Huanying”, and movie theaters will recover some costs by taking advantage of the popularity of the schedule. But as soon as the schedule heats up, the movie theater’s business crisis emerges.

“Many movie theaters are now clenching their teeth and rushing to the May 1st gear. If you can beat it once, it counts once, but after the May 1st gear, there will be many cinemas that have announced permanent closures.” Xiang Kai analyzed.

It can be seen that the strictly controlled attendance rate is a status quo that cannot be changed by the cinema. But you must know that the content of the film is also an important factor affecting whether the audience can enter the cinema.

An example that can be referred to is the May 1st gear last year.

At that time, there was the youth-themed movie “Your Wedding”, which led the pre-sale, and then the spy war film “On the Cliff” directed by Zhang Yimou. One is the high popularity of publicity in the early stage, and the other is the good reputation of the Douban score of 7.6. The two films supported the May 1st file last year.

Lighthouse Professional Edition data shows that in 2021, the total box office of the May 1st category will be 1.674 billion (including service fees), the total number of moviegoers will reach 4,426.26, and the total number of screenings will reach 226.24, setting the highest records in the history of the May 1st category in terms of box office, number of people, and screenings.

As mentioned above, the movie “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationship” leads the May 1st file this year, but the box office forecast from the pre-screening media is still not as good as that of “Your Wedding” in the same period last year. According to the data of the Lighthouse Professional Edition, the pre-screening media box office of “Your Wedding” reached a maximum of 1.2 billion, while “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationship” currently has a maximum of only 180 million, a difference of nearly 6 times.

What needs to be understood is that the pre-publication and marketing can only determine the box office on the first day, and the final box office performance still depends on the quality of the content and word-of-mouth effect.

“On the condition that the above-mentioned films will not be withdrawn, the box office of May 1st this year is expected to be around 500 million, and will not exceed 800 million at most.” Xiang Kai told Wired Insight.

If this prediction comes true, it means that this year’s May 1 box office is less than one-third of the best record in Chinese film history.

03 The epidemic is still spreading, and the film industry cannot afford to wait

In 2019, many filmmakers consider it the best year for Chinese films.

At that time, phenomenal films such as “The Wandering Earth” and “My Motherland and Me” were released one after another, and the national box office and movie attendance hit a record high.

But the three years of repeated epidemics have left the filmmakers quite helpless.

In fact, starting from the Spring Festival this year, in order to preserve the box office of the movie and minimize the losses caused by the epidemic, the film company will withdraw the file as one of the response methods.

Taking the most competitive Spring Festival stalls as an example, the comedies “Super Family” and “Plays Like Life” chose to withdraw, and comedies have always been “necessities” for the Spring Festival stalls.

As the epidemic gradually spreads, the most serious problem facing the film industry is that they cannot afford to wait.

“If the leading companies had the energy and financial resources to make big movies in the past, after the epidemic, they also held a group to warm up, and many companies jointly produced a big movie.” Xiang Kai explained to Wired Insight.

Take Beijing Culture as an example. Although it won the dark horse of “Hello, Li Huanying” in 2021, its financial report data is not optimistic. The company’s performance forecast shows that in 2021, it will achieve operating income of 250 million yuan to 350 million yuan, a decrease from 430 million yuan in the same period last year, and a net loss of 90 million yuan to 140 million yuan.

Similar to Beijing’s cultural situation is Huayi Brothers. Its performance forecast shows that its net profit after non-deduction is still a loss of 927 million yuan to 938 million yuan, and this is the fourth consecutive year that Huayi Brothers has negative net profit after non-deduction.

The performance forecast of Enlight Media also shows that although the net profit after non-deduction in 2021 is positive, reaching 40 million to 90 million yuan, it has dropped by 61.69% to 82.97% compared with the same period of the previous year.

The more important issue is that the film industry has a significant 28 effect, which means that this three-year film and television winter is too long for small and medium-sized film companies.

“They are all gritting their teeth to ensure that the company does not go bankrupt. It is very difficult to invest energy in the cracks to make good works.” Xiang Kai added.

The successive loss of Spring Festival stalls and Qingming stalls has made the box office of the film industry more and more bleak. According to the professional version of Maoyan, the total box office of the 2022 Qingming Festival is 120 million, and the total number of people watching the movie is 3.4202 million. This is the lowest box office value for this period in the past ten years, except for 2020.

CICC once pointed out in a research report that in the post-epidemic era, the effect of movie box office schedules is obvious, and the May 1st gear has also received high attention as a small schedule. The May 1st gear may help the steady growth of the box office throughout the year.

In fact, judging from the overall box office trend of the May 1st gear in recent years, the box office of the schedule has been increasing year by year, especially after the holiday is adjusted to 5 days, the May 1st gear has also become a major industry leader after the Spring Festival and National Day. important dates.

According to the data of the Lighthouse Professional Edition, from 2016 to 2021, the box office of Chinese film May 1st has doubled from 657 million yuan to 1.513 billion yuan (excluding service fees).

According to industry rules, a longer schedule will attract a larger volume of videos to join. The 2019 May 1st Gear’s “Avengers 4” and the 2021 May 1st Gear’s “On the Cliff” are good examples.

However, under the special circumstances of the current epidemic, Xiang Kai believes that “rationally giving up this year’s May 1st file is a correct choice. After all, the bleak box office brought about by insisting on not withdrawing the file may hit the follow-up film industry even more. More loss of confidence.”

It is worth noting that the “can’t afford to wait” in the film industry is also reflected in the acceptance of consumers.

According to “New Patterns and New Forces: Annual Report on China’s Film Market in 2021” released by the Lighthouse Research Institute, in the six years from 2016 to 2021, the national average movie ticket price rose from 33.1 yuan to 40.3 yuan, with a total increase of 21%. %, showing a steady upward trend overall.

In other words, the 9.9 yuan movie ticket used to make up for the era no longer exists. However, movie tickets that cost hundreds of yuan have already exceeded the consumption level of many audiences.

The reason behind this is that since the epidemic, on the one hand, the attendance rate of movie theaters cannot be guaranteed, and on the other hand, most movie producers have raised the minimum release price.

But while being disrupted by the epidemic, the film industry does not seem to realize the essential problem, that is, the content itself. The market has proven countless times that a good movie with a high ticket price will not dissuade the audience.

It should be noted that temporarily withdrawing files can avoid the impact of the epidemic, but after the film is piled up to the epidemic, the competition will be more intense. In other words, the film industry cannot wait forever.

Especially after losing the Qingming file, the May 1st file is more important to the film industry. It’s a pity that the withdrawal of five films does not seem to be a good sign, and Chinese films may still have a hard time.

“Those with capital can make high-quality movies at a low cost, and those without capital can hold their positions and make some good content to prepare for the recovery of the film industry in the future.” Xiang Kai said.

After all, the Chinese film industry needs a booster too much. No one knows when the booster will come, and not everyone can afford the time, but the film industry can only continue to wait for the industry to recover.

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