Hello friends, I am the pavilion owner, and I took off today.
Let me tell you how I feel after today’s big rise, two words, easy!
Some fans asked me that I have risen so much today, especially the recent increase in the medical position. The relevant fund has increased by 8% . Isn’t it good?
The positions have risen sharply across the board, which is really cool, but it is more relaxed, because this time it has fallen for too long.
In the past few weeks, I have been giving you psychological massage every day and night . The one on the left said that there is no need to panic below 3,000 points, and the one on the right said that the value of Hong Kong stocks is outstanding. Some influences, so the pressure is still relatively large.
However, after such a rise today, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3,000 points again, and the pharmaceutical sector has set a limit. I think the judgment on the current bottom area is very accurate . This rebound is the basis for building a bottom. Although it cannot be concluded that it is an absolute bottom, it is definitely It is in the bottom area , especially in the pharmaceutical sector.
I can finally breathe a sigh of relief. If I continue to fall like this, the psychological massage may not be effective. In the face of absolute panic, anyone may lose their rationality , so today’s rise has given many people confidence. For me, the mentality is relaxed. a lot of.
Today’s positions have risen sharply, and there are two daily limits.
One is that LONGi Green Energy , which was hard-pressed, raised the daily limit during the session. Although it was not sealed at the end of the session, it still closed up 9%.
I remember that many people were worried and disappointed when LONGi plummeted some time ago. For me, I plan to hold LONGi for a long time, so I almost ignored the fluctuations during this period.
But everyone’s mentality is different. I can withstand a 50% or higher drawdown, but most people can’t. This is also the part of investing that is difficult to be self-consistent with.
Regarding investing, the picture below depicts it very vividly.
The other is the Hong Kong stock medicine that has been very optimistic and has increased its positions recently. The Hang Seng Medical ETF also hit the daily limit and closed up 7% .
I won’t talk much about medicine here. I usually talk more. Medicine is a reversal sector that I am very optimistic about recently. Today’s skyrocketing is just the beginning of the reversal. The next 1-3 years are very worth looking forward to .
Friends who are interested in medical-related articles can also read:
Link to Article 1 (September 26, 2022): Talking about buy logic
Link to Article 2 (September 23, 2022): Problems, Value and Future of Innovative Drugs (In-depth Analysis)
Regarding the outbreak of the pharmaceutical sector, there are mainly two news factors.
(1) The first is to moderate the centralized procurement plan
The 22-province alliance biochemical centralized procurement plan has been introduced. According to the rules, Group A enterprises can be shortlisted if the maximum effective declared price is reduced by 20%, which is much milder.
If this is the case, the moderate price reduction of centralized procurement will help to further increase the market share of leading enterprises . At the same time, upstream enterprises will directly communicate with hospitals, and the profits of distributors will be further compressed, which is conducive to the control of sales expense ratio of production enterprises.
In addition, the draft proposal for the centralized collection of biochemical reagents for liver function in 22 provinces and regions led by Jiangxi came out. It is said that the pressure of IVD centralized collection is better than market expectations.
The centralized procurement that everyone is most afraid of has not deteriorated, so the market sentiment has stabilized a little.
(2) The second is to simplify the negotiation rules
A few days ago, the National Medical Insurance Administration responded to the proposal on “negotiating drug renewal” put forward by the National People’s Congress and Hengrui Pharmaceutical Chairman Sun Piaoyang and the National People’s Congress and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical Chairman Wang Weidong.
The reply focused on the new “simple renewal” rules set up in the national medical insurance negotiation this year , in order to simplify the negotiation process and improve efficiency.
This is a big benefit for innovative drugs, because for varieties with new indications, it means that the price reduction will not be too large, because according to the simple renewal procedure, the reduction may only be at most 25% .
Taking BeiGene PD-1 Tislelizumab as an example, after the negotiation of new indications in 2021, the price reduction will reach 34%.
These two pieces of news perfectly relieve everyone’s anxiety about centralized procurement and medical insurance negotiations, which are indeed substantive benefits.
But I think the pharmaceutical sector can set the daily limit today, and the weights of WuXi PharmaTech, Hengrui Medicine, and Changchun Hi-Tech can also reach the daily limit. In addition to the good stimulus, it is more because the pharmaceutical industry has fallen too much , and the decline has gone too far. Now it needs to be certain corrections and fixes .
In addition to the collective surge in A-shares today, there are two things that make me feel at ease, one is the turnover, and the other is the capital going north .
Today, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is 860 billion yuan , which is close to 900 billion yuan.
Volume energy is a very important indicator. If this round of rebound is to continue, volume energy must go up, and it is best to break through trillions in one breath.
Beishang funds are also very powerful today, and finally began to flow in substantially, with a net inflow of 7.5 billion throughout the day , ending the 3 consecutive days of net sales.
A-shares cannot lack the blessing of Beishang funds, and Beishang funds hold a large number of white horse shares. If the Beishang funds do not return, it will be difficult for Baima to remember.
Finally, a brief summary:
Today’s market is a rebound, but I think this rebound will last for a while , maybe a week, maybe a month.
In addition, any adjustment opportunities in the future are good layout opportunities, especially below 3000 points . If the subsequent shocks rise, then the right side will basically be determined, and the most difficult days for A shares are officially announced.
We are in the dark, but the dawn is not far away.
@Today’s topic @snowball creator center #Big counterattack! AH shares soared collectively# $ Hengrui Medicine (SH600276)$ $ LONGi Green Energy (SH601012)$ $ Mindray Medical (SZ300760)$
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