Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1753
Mexico is back as top source of U.S. imports
At the beginning of 2022, American retail giant Wal-Mart needs to order 50,000 uniforms. According to usual practice, this order should be sent to a garment factory in Guangzhou, China, but in the end Wal-Mart chose Preslow, a family-owned clothing company in Mexico.
In March of this year, Tesla announced that it would build a fifth super factory in Mexico, 20 times the size of the Shanghai factory. Previously, Tesla once planned to increase capital and expand production at the Shanghai factory as a global export base.
According to data from the U.S. Customs Service, since March 2023, Mexico’s exports of goods and services to the United States have exceeded China’s exports to the United States for three consecutive months, the first time since 2003. The U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau’s data on imports and exports of goods shows a similar trend. The US is effectively putting more of its supply chains within its immediate reach.
Luis Torres, a senior business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said of the trend this week that “the main focus of trade policy used to be free trade, increased efficiency and lower prices, but that may not be the case anymore. .Today’s global economic relationships encompass a wide variety of concerns, including national security, climate policy, and supply chain resilience.”
Lower labor costs are the biggest draw. Average manufacturing labor costs in Mexico are estimated to be $4.82 per hour in 2020, compared to $6.50 per hour in China. In Vietnam, where exports have grown rapidly in recent years, labor costs are less than half of those in China.
Vietnam was first listed by the U.S. Census Bureau as the fifteenth largest trading partner of the United States in 2019, and since then, Vietnam has climbed the ranks to tenth in 2021 and seventh in 2022. In order to diversify supply chains for labor-intensive manufacturing companies, Mexico and Vietnam are more attractive options.
Trade barriers are an important factor. During the epidemic, the purchase of furniture by American households doubled, but because the United States imposed a 25% tariff on furniture imported from China, China’s share of U.S. furniture imports did not increase but fell, while Mexico and Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. then increased to 13% and 19% respectively.
The same is true for consumer electronics. The U.S. imposed a 25 percent tariff on imports of IT hardware and consumer electronics from China, cutting the share of Chinese exports to the U.S. by nearly two-thirds, from 38 percent to 13 percent, with Mexico filling the gap. blank. In 2020, the United States, Mexico and Canada signed the latest trade agreement, which accelerated the process of supply chain localization.
About $335 billion worth of Chinese goods exported to the U.S. are currently subject to additional tariffs.
Geography is equally important. By putting the supply chain within their reach and control, enterprises can reduce the uncertainty in the process of commodity transportation. It typically takes a month to move a full container from China to the U.S. — a time that doubled or tripled during the worst of the disruption. Mexican factories and U.S. retailers can trade within two weeks. Compared with long-distance sea transportation, land transportation also protects enterprises from the impact of large fluctuations in the price of container ships and containers. (Intern Lin Hongsheng)
Aspartame may cause cancer if you drink 10 cans of soda a day
Humans are born with a fondness for sweets, which biologists say is an instinct to encourage the body to store energy. This instinct may be life-saving in a primitive society where food, especially carbohydrates, is scarce, but in contemporary times, sugar is regarded as an antonym of health, so people look for alternatives that can balance sweetness and health, artificial saccharin, aspartame, etc. And thus sweeteners were born.
Today, the risks of these “sugar substitutes” have also begun to arouse vigilance. The “International Agency for Research on Cancer” (IARC) under the WHO has announced that aspartame may cause cancer, and its other agency “Expert Committee on Food Additives” (JECFA) stated that the substance is safe within a reasonable intake range. edible.
The two conclusions are not contradictory. The carcinogenicity research of aspartame mainly uses animal models, and the evidence for carcinogenicity of animals is sufficient, but the evidence for human carcinogenicity is insufficient. IARC gives it a rating of “possibly carcinogenic to humans” (possibly carcinogenic to humans), which belongs to 2B Carcinogens, the cancer risk is comparable to coffee and mobile phone radiation, lower than pork, beef and mutton rated 2A and Class 1 carcinogens alcohol, tobacco, betel nut, etc.
JECFA considers the safe intake range: 40 mg of aspartame can be taken per kilogram of body weight per day, which means that an adult weighing 70 kg can drink 9 to 14 cans of sugar-free soda in a day to exceed the warning line. However, Francesco Branca, director of WHO’s Department of Nutrition and Food Safety, reminded that some other beverages and foods (such as cereals, chewing gum, yogurt, ice cream, diet drinks) also contain aspartame, This may cause some consumers’ actual daily intake to be close to the upper limit, so the best solution is to refuse drinks and drink water.
The warnings will not have any immediate impact on the supply of aspartame, as the WHO has no regulatory or enforcement powers. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which has authority, said in a statement that being listed as a suspected carcinogen does not mean that aspartame is actually linked to cancer. However, consumers still hold the voting power in the end, and beverage manufacturers have already looked for other sweeteners, especially natural sugar substitutes, to replace aspartame. (Qiu Hao)
What We Know About the Hollywood Strike
On July 13, local time, the Screen Actors Guild, which represents about 160,000 actors, announced a strike because it failed to reach a new labor agreement with the producers. Combined with the Writers Guild of America strike that began in early May, Hollywood is facing simultaneous strikes by actors and writers for the first time since 1960.
Actors’ strikes are more troublesome than writers’ strikes. The script is usually written before the filming of the film and television works. The screenwriters quit, and the producers can continue to film, but the actors are gone, and all new content production must be put on hold. For example, the production of the new season of “Stranger Things” on Netflix has been suspended. The strike will even affect the release of new films that have already been filmed. Robert Downey Jr., Matt Damon and others left the event before the London premiere of “Oppenheimer” because the union did not allow actors to participate in the strike during the strike Promote the film.
The core of this round of Hollywood strikes is the failure of labor and management to reach a new round of agreement, the main crux of which is streaming media and AI. The transformation of the film and television industry to streaming media has caused damage to the income of practitioners. Earlier, Scarlett Johansson filed a lawsuit because Disney moved “Black Widow” to Disney+ simultaneously, because this would affect the film’s box office revenue and reduce her share of accounts.
The use of AI could threaten their jobs themselves. For example, the union said that the producers are only willing to pay for the first use of group performances, and then they can use AI technology to reproduce similar characters and scenes again and again.
Producers say they have offered salary increases of more than 10 percent, higher pension and medical benefits, increased benefits for cast and crew on show reruns, and protections for actors’ digital likenesses, among other things. But the union said the divide was “unbelievably wide”.
The strike will damage the interests of everyone. Practitioners will lose their salaries. Film and television companies can only replay old content, which will eventually lose viewers. Other related industries and personnel will also be affected, such as prop production, equipment companies, transport drivers and The person who sells lunch boxes on the set. And the longer the delay, the greater the loss. In the end, at least one party will give in and return to the negotiating table to sign an agreement. The last Hollywood screenwriters strike occurred in 2007, which lasted 100 days and caused an estimated $2.1 billion in economic losses.
In the United States, where union culture prevails, similar strikes are not new. The NBA has had several strikes and a shortened season.
And Americans may have more to worry about another strike crisis than no new movies and TV shows to watch right now.
340,000 employees of UPS, the world’s largest logistics company, will go on strike on August 1 if the labor negotiations continue to stall. UPS handles about a quarter of U.S. package shipments and deliveries, and logistics experts have warned that the strike could delay deliveries of millions of items a day, including e-commerce orders, chips and life-saving medicine, and reignite supply chain chaos. AEG, a think tank specializing in UPS, said it was likely to be the costliest strike in at least a century, with economic losses of more than $7 billion for every 10 days of shutdown. (Qiu Hao)
Domestic luxury consumption shifts from handbags to jewelry
According to a report by Vogue and Barclays Bank, in the second quarter of this year, China’s luxury consumption recovered more than expected, but it was mainly driven by the wealthy rather than the middle class.
According to the survey, two-thirds of the respondents said that they spent more than 15,000 yuan on luxury goods in the second quarter, while at the end of the previous quarter, only half expected to spend more than 8,000 yuan. Most of the respondents are women with an annual income of at least RMB 500,000 in first-tier cities.
But jewelry replaced handbags as the first choice. In the second quarter, jewelry consumption increased by 11% from the previous quarter, while handbags fell by 5%. Barclays Bank believes that it may be because jewelry is more valuable and often more expensive, and it is popular among wealthy people who currently occupy the mainstream of consumption.
More than half of the respondents plan to buy high-end jewelry in the next three months, more than three times that of clothing, and comparable to watches. The report predicts that in the third quarter of this year, Van Cleef & Arpels and Rolex will become the fastest growing luxury brands in China. More than 20% of the respondents plan to buy Rolex.
Young luxury consumers are relatively more cautious, about one-fifth are worried about losing their jobs, and two-fifths are worried about the national economy; about half are interested in jewelry, and one-third use luxury goods as a means of investment. (Lin Guangying)
CHART OF THE DAY | The vacancy rate of high-quality office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is rising
Wind data shows that in the first half of this year, the vacancy rate of high-quality office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen continued to rise. Among them, the vacancy rates of high-quality office buildings in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 0.9, 1.5, 1.2, and 2.5 percentage points respectively compared with the end of last year. Beijing and Guangzhou set the highest vacancy rates in the past five years.
The vacancy rate of office buildings in new first-tier cities such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chengdu has also shown an overall upward trend. The vacancy rate of office buildings in Wuhan has remained above 40% in the past two years, and the vacancy rate of Nanjing has continued to rise by 17 percentage points since 2019.
According to the analysis of the China Finger Research Institute, China’s macro economy has shown a recovery trend since 2023. However, under the complex and severe international environment and the high pressure of domestic structural adjustment, the economic recovery momentum is still insufficient. From the perspective of the three major demands, consumption has recovered steadily, while the growth rate of exports and investment has slowed down. Under the circumstances that the foundation of macroeconomic recovery is not yet solid, enterprises tend to be cautious in their decision-making on expanding operations, and the inter-regional office market is also showing a trend of differentiation, and the activity of some regional office markets has declined compared with the first quarter.
In addition, Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate consulting company, predicts that in the second half of 2023, many projects will enter the market in various places. The office market is facing challenges, but it also provides enterprises with more high-quality office options. (Intern Fu Xiaoyu)
OTHER NEWS
In the third quarter, the issuance scale of local government bonds reached nearly 1.85 trillion yuan.
According to 21 Finance and Economics, as of the 12th, a total of 22 localities across the country have disclosed their plans for the issuance of local bonds in the third quarter, with a total plan to issue nearly 1.85 trillion yuan of local bonds. Guangdong Province ranks first in the country in debt scale. Therefore, there is a high probability that the planned issuance of local government bonds in the third quarter will exceed the 2.33 trillion yuan in the second quarter, forming a peak issuance within the year.
Some industrial enterprises in Sichuan have restricted electricity and production due to high electricity load.
According to Caixin, some industrial enterprises in Sichuan have been restricted in production and electricity. The affected photovoltaic enterprises have reduced their output by about 10% to 30% for the month. In addition, many cement enterprises have also been required to reduce their power load by 80%. According to a report from Xinhua News Agency on the 10th, affected by the high temperature, the power load of the Sichuan power grid hit a record high that day. In addition, Sichuan is dominated by hydropower, but affected by the drought, hydropower generation in April decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the decline in May expanded to 24.4%.
In the first half of the year, the loss of the three major airlines has been greatly reduced year-on-year, but it is still expected to exceed 10 billion yuan.
According to the performance forecast released by the three airlines, in the first half of this year, China Southern Airlines is expected to lose 2.5 billion to 3.3 billion yuan, Air China is expected to lose 3.2 billion to 3.9 billion yuan, and China Eastern Airlines is expected to lose 5.5 billion to 6.9 billion yuan. China Southern Airlines said that due to the slow recovery of international flights, the oversupply in the domestic market, the sharp depreciation of the renminbi, and the high volatility of oil prices, the company’s operating pressure is still huge. In the same period last year, the three major airlines suffered a combined loss of 49.66 billion yuan.
BYD’s net profit in the first half of the year exceeded 10 billion, a year-on-year increase of about two times.
BYD expects net profit in the first half of the year to be about 10.5 billion to 11.7 billion yuan, an increase of 192% to 225% year-on-year. The growth is due to the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the expansion of scale advantages, and the fall in raw material prices. The profit of the mobile phone business has also improved significantly. In the first half of this year, BYD sold a total of 1.256 million new energy vehicles, nearly doubling year-on-year.
Kweichow Moutai’s revenue in the first half of the year exceeded 70 billion yuan, and its profit is expected to increase by nearly 20%.
Kweichow Moutai announced that in the first half of the year, the total operating income is expected to be about 70.6 billion yuan, of which Moutai liquor accounted for more than 80%, a year-on-year increase of about 18.8%; the net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be about 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19.5%. Previously, “Wandian Finance” learned that the price inversion of the liquor market in the first half of this year was serious. The Red Star Capital Bureau investigated the dealer prices of 16 liquor companies’ main products. Except for Moutai, all of them were lower than the ex-factory price.
In the second quarter, Burberry’s sales in mainland China increased by 46% year-on-year.
As of the first quarter on July 1, Burberry’s sales rose 18% year-on-year to 589 million pounds. Among them, sales in Mainland China increased by 46% year-on-year, returning to the level of about 95% in 2021. Sales in Europe rose 17 percent year-over-year, driven by tourists, while sales in the Americas fell 8 percent. Management said mass demand appeared to be weakening, but pricier leather goods and outerwear were doing well as affluent consumers increased.
China’s demand rebounded, and Swatch Group’s profit in the first half of the year exceeded that before the epidemic for the first time.
In the first half of this year, Swatch net sales increased by 18% year-on-year to a new high of US$4.64 billion, and operating profit increased by 36% to US$790 million, far exceeding market expectations. Among them, sales in Hong Kong, China tripled, and mainland China achieved double-digit growth. The group’s brands include mid-to-high-end watches such as Omega and Longines, but the management said that low-priced products have the fastest growth, especially the Omega MoonSwatch cooperation model that sells for about US$260.
In the first half of the year, Yonghui Superstores’ net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 500 million yuan year-on-year, turning losses into profits.
Yonghui Superstores’ net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of the year was 390 million yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and it turned losses into profits. The performance forecast is mainly based on the company’s promotion of store optimization, closure of some long-term loss-making stores, promotion of digitalization, and internal assessment and publicity to achieve cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Hang Seng Electronics’ net profit in the first half of the year was 438 million yuan, nearly half of which was attributed to the appreciation of its financial assets.
Hundsun Electronics is expected to make a net profit of 438 million yuan in the first half of the year, turning losses into profits. Among them, 42% of the net profit is affected by non-recurring gains and losses, that is, the income from changes in the fair value of financial assets held by the company has increased significantly year-on-year. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the increase in net profit was mainly due to Hang Seng Electronics’ control of costs and expenses and the increase in sales returns.
U.S. consumers are more active in stockpiling goods, and Amazon Prime Day has increased its discounts.
According to Adobe data, Amazon’s annual promotional event, Prime Day, has increased its discounts this year. On the first day, the price of electronic products has been reduced by 16%, which is much higher than last year’s 6%. The prices of toys, clothing and other categories have also been reduced by more than 10%. The survey also shows that this year, more than half of consumers compare prices on different platforms before placing an order, and more than half of consumers wait for discounts before shopping. Analysts said that Prime Day is generally dominated by promotions on electronic products, and this year many people have stocked up on staple foods and other necessities.
The annual income of the richest 1% of households in the United States is 8 times that of the average household.
According to a new study by SmartAsset, a financial information service provider, in the United States, the annual household income needs to reach US$650,000 to be among the richest 1%, which is more than eight times the median annual household income of the US (about US$71,000). . There are also large regional differences, such as in Washington, DC, where the top 1% threshold requires a household income of more than $1 million a year, while in Virginia it requires “only” $367,000.
Dragged down by the manufacturing industry, Singapore’s GDP grew by 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter.
Singapore released preliminary data on Friday showing that in the second quarter of this year, manufacturing output fell by 7.5% year-on-year, and GDP grew by only 0.7% year-on-year. As of May this year, Singapore’s manufacturing output has fallen for eight consecutive months, falling 10.8% year-on-year in May, the largest drop since November 2019. Singapore’s manufacturing industry is mainly export-oriented, including semiconductors, integrated circuits, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, etc.
Tesla’s 10,000 yuan toy car went on sale today and is currently sold out.
Tesla’s China official website officially launched the Cyberquad toy car today, priced at 11,990 yuan, with a top speed of 8 kilometers per hour and a battery life of about 1.5 hours. According to the page, the toy car is mainly designed for children, but it is also sought after by many adults because of its load-bearing capacity of 50 kg. Due to the large number of purchasers, the page faltered for a while, and it is now showing that it is out of stock. Some users said that the price is lower than expected, the key is that there is no place to put it at home.
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