core point
In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed expectations, and the multi-point flowering situation has laid the foundation for the follow-up. In 2021, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 6.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 109%, and the penetration rate will reach 11.7%. In terms of sales structure, China is still the largest market in the world, accounting for half of the total. The overall domestic sales show a dumbbell-like structure, with a high proportion of A00 and B-class models and a lower share of A-class cars with wider coverage. From the perspective of end users, the proportion of the private market continued to increase, and it showed the characteristics of accelerated penetration into the third- and fourth-tier cities and rural markets, which laid a solid foundation for the continued increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the medium and long term.
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the driving force for the development of the new energy vehicle industry has turned from “policy-driven” to “market-led”, and the market demand for new energy vehicles has begun to be released steadily without relying on strong policy promotion. In the past two years, the new energy vehicle market has relied on popular models to gather popularity and achieved a stable transition in sales. Looking at 2022 and the mid-to-long term, we believe that the continuous upgrade of models and consumers’ acceptance of electrification are the strongest driving forces. 800V high-voltage fast charging and battery replacement mode solves the problem of short-term energy replenishment; ultra-high energy density cells solve the problem of battery life; high-end autonomous driving, frees hands more safely, widens the gap with fuel vehicles, and superimposes policy-side optimization Adjustment, the new energy vehicle market is healthier. The short-term terminal price increase is the result that the upstream raw material supply cannot keep up with the explosive demand. After the accelerated release of supply, the material price has returned to normal, and the selling price has become more stable.
We predict that the sales of new energy vehicles will still be around 5.4 million in 2022, and will exceed 11 million in 2025. The short-term contradictions are price increases and epidemic factors. Sales from April to June will be affected. After entering the second half of the year, new consumer demand will pick up, superimposed on the rush to install at the end of the year, and car companies may give a certain amount on the basis of the latest prices. In the second half of the year, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the sales forecast for the whole year was maintained at 5.4 million. Looking at the next few years, the established goals of car companies are still relatively optimistic. The price of raw materials will fall and the cost of battery technology will be reduced. The cost of batteries will re-enter the downward channel, and the price will continue to be stable. Coupled with the substantial improvement in the competitiveness of models, we predict that in 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to exceed 11 million.
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