Recently, the pharmaceutical sector has felt that their respective ups and downs have been mixed. Today, one is the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and the other is the OK lens. Finally, there is a province saying that it will be centrally purchased. As a result, from the OK lens manufacturer to the eye hospital, there has been a decline.
1. Will there be centralized procurement of consumer medical devices?
A friend has been asking this question before, and the answer I gave is that the difficulty and necessity of the centralized procurement of consumer devices is lower than the ranking of clinical devices, but at the same time, I also said that in the face of national policies, any product is nothing. Collective immunity. With dental implants, invisible orthodontics, and recently OK mirrors appearing in the centralized procurement lists of some provinces and cities, we believe that the centralized procurement of medicines and equipment has deepened and entered the end of the centralized procurement boundary, that is, non-clinical and non-medical insurance products. Moreover, we should also pay attention to the goal of deepening centralized procurement, which also extends from the goal of saving medical insurance to some people’s livelihood goals , which is to ensure the universality of the price of social medical consumer products. Whether it is dental or ophthalmology, consumers are all consumers. A wide range of fields with enough social hotspots are closely related to people’s livelihood.
2. Subsequent evolution of OK mirror collection
Centralized procurement process: Single-province centralized procurement is the initial stage of centralized procurement. From the centralized procurement of a single province to the inter-provincial alliance, to the national level, it is the difference in the level and level of emphasis. Whether it will evolve to centralized procurement at the national level in the future depends on the policy attitude.
Ex-factory discount rate Vs decline : We observed the distribution agency system of different categories, OK belongs to the typical category with low ex-factory discount rate and lucrative channel. Judging from the reports of Oppo and Aibo, the ex-factory price including trial tablets is around 500-1000 yuan, while the terminal price is 5,000-10,000 yuan, which means that the ex-factory price is about 10-20% of the terminal price. The varieties that have been collected before are similar to ophthalmic intraocular lenses. Judging from the results of intraocular lens collection, they have little impact on the factory. Therefore, by analogy, it is unlikely that the OK mirror collection will be lower than the ex-factory price.
Channel compression : From the experience of centralized equipment procurement, the impact on channels is relatively large. I also mentioned before about the impact of orthopaedic centralized procurement on agents ” under centralized procurement, the value of 2 billion sales of orthopedic agents will return to zero “. For OK mirrors, the so-called channels are roughly divided into several categories. The first category is the dealers of OK mirror manufacturers, the second category is private hospitals, and the last category belongs to the OP model, the manufacturer + outpatient model.
Let’s focus on private hospitals. Everyone knows that OK mirrors, intraocular lenses, IVDs and other equipment and consumables, the prices given to private hospitals are much lower than public hospitals, which is the so-called low price of direct sales. From the prospectus of the recently listed He’s Ophthalmology, it can be seen that the purchase price of the OK lens is about 1,200 yuan. Therefore, if the centralized purchase of OK mirrors brings about a drop in the terminal price, it will indeed affect the myopia prevention and control business of private hospitals, but similar to the centralized purchase of dental implants, the impact will only affect part of the business, and the technical service fee will also be included in the centralized purchase plan. adjusted in.
For Oppo, in the manufacturer + optometry outpatient model, the role of the manufacturer may not be so great, but the outpatient channel will be more affected.
3. What will happen to the stock market cycle after centralized procurement?
From generic drugs to stents, orthopedics and other clinical devices, the previous rounds of centralized procurement have shown investors that after the in-depth centralized procurement of different varieties, the relevant performance of the stock market, as a whole, is the decline in centralized procurement and the impact of the pattern and market expectations. game. There are not only the continuous decline in the influence of centralized procurement, but also the actual situation is not as bad as expected, resulting in marginal improvement and stock price rebound.
The first boot has already landed, and the stock market has reacted violently. So what nodes and steps might follow?
External environment: news of the first province’s centralized procurement—the implementation of the centralized procurement plan—the result of the centralized procurement game
Market value expectations: The first wave of sell-offs—performance growth + valuation digestion—comparison of market expectations and centralized procurement results.
It is about the first wave now, and there will be a period of time when market expectations and valuations are re-running, and then it may finally wait for the results of the centralized collection to compare with the expectations at that time, so as to decide whether to stage a coronary stent or an orthopedic spine. Trend!
Summarize
The impact of the centralized acquisition of the OK mirror is viewed from both sides.
On the positive side , as a consumer product, especially a category with strong demand and low penetration rate, the elasticity of demand will increase after the price is lowered.
On the other hand , as a consumer product before, the overall valuation system is not low, and the road to digest valuation is still relatively long in the future.
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