Opinion | Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue to rebound in the second quarter, and the performance in the fourth quarter is better than that in the third quarter

Source: Dang Chongyu Investment Notes

Author: Dang Chongyu

Founder Securities issued a research report that the fourth quarter of Hong Kong stocks may be better than the third quarter, and it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue to rebound in the second quarter, mainly because

(1) The Mainland’s stable growth policies continue to exert force. For example, the Politburo meeting on April 29 pointed out that “support local governments to improve real estate policies based on local conditions”, “comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction”, and “promulgate specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy” measure”;

(2) The domestic epidemic situation has gradually improved. For example, the number of confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections in Shanghai has decreased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy has gradually decreased.

The bank predicts that after the rebound of Hong Kong stocks in the future, there may be adjustments under the influence of multiple factors, especially in the third quarter, we need to be alert to the risk of Hong Kong stocks falling, that is, the impact of my country’s epidemic on the semi-annual reports of Hong Kong-listed companies and the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction on overseas flows The impact of sex may continue to appear in the third quarter. The report believes that the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market may appear in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual recovery of the economy after the epidemic, the Hong Kong stock market may improve compared with the third quarter.

Risk reminder: The global new crown epidemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations; the US economic recession risk has exceeded expectations; the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy changes have exceeded expectations; US stocks have fluctuated more than expected.