$Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong(TIAA041001)$
This is our 1007th weekly strategy report.
This past week has been an uncomfortable one.
In life, many of us have encountered health problems, including myself and my family members who are also recovering and are expected to return to normal next week.
The market is not so worrying. A-shares have fallen for 5 consecutive days and fell for a whole week. Only 366 stocks have achieved positive returns in the past 5 trading days. freezing point. (Wind, 2022.12.23)
How do we see such adjustments, and how do we see future investment opportunities?
The strategy for the last week of 2022 is shared as follows, and the investment strategy report for 2023 will be shared next week.
1. Pessimism induces rapid adjustment
This market adjustment came quickly and urgently. Starting from December 12, in just 2 weeks and 10 trading days, the market directly retreated from 3200 points to 3045.87 points after the close on December 23.
; From the perspective of subdivided industries, for hard technologies with a growth-oriented style, the decline is relatively large. The photovoltaic industry fell by 5.56% and 7.34% respectively for two consecutive weeks;
CS new energy vehicles fell by 3.17% and 5.54% respectively for two consecutive weeks;
China Securities Military Industry fell 2.33% and 4.70% respectively for two consecutive weeks;
The Kechuang 50 has fallen by 2.33% and 5.93% respectively for two consecutive weeks (Wind, as of 2022.12.23).
It can be said that in this round of adjustments, hard technology has become the main direction of adjustments. There are two main reasons for inducing relatively large adjustments in hard technology.
The first one, the overall valuation is still slightly higher (see the table below), and the time and space for adjustment are still a little bit meaningless;
Second, funds may like the new and dislike the old, and the funds will flow out from the direction of hard technology, and the corresponding “undervaluation + reversal of difficulties” will have capital inflows.
2. Or the last squat out of the bottom area
Judging from the trend of the entire market, this rapid decline is very similar to the last squat out of the bottom area before the economic recovery.
In terms of funds from the north, the net inflow to the north in the past month was 51.762 billion, which reversed the net outflow of funds from the north in the past few months (Oriental Fortune, as of 2022.12.23), while the transaction volume and transaction value of the Hang Seng Index in the past two months It is also increasing rapidly, which to a certain extent represents the return of foreign capital to the Chinese capital market.
From the perspective of economic development, it is a consensus from top to bottom to fight for the economy next year. From the perspective of the development of the epidemic situation, the probability of the first wave of the epidemic ending before the Spring Festival is also relatively high, and the economic recovery after the Spring Festival may be a high probability thing.
From the perspective of the market itself, the CSI 300TTM valuation is 11.21 times (Wind, 2022.12.23), which is 19.50% of the historical percentile (Wind, 2005.04.08-2022.12.23), and from February 18, 2021 The highest point of 5930.91 points (Wind, 2021.2.18) has been adjusted to 3828.22 points, and time and space are also coming to an end (Wind, 2022.12.23).
If there is no accident, the CSI 300 will close down in 2022, and the CSI 300 will also close down in 2021. Historically, the CSI 300 has not closed down for three consecutive years.
All signs show that the sudden and rapid adjustment of the market this time is like a deep squat before the opening of the market.
3. Who will be the main line after recovery
From the current point of view, the main line of recovery expected by the market is mainly alcohol, Internet platforms, and tourism. When the market really recovers, will the main line be them?
We still have different opinions.
We believe that both China Securities Liquor and China Securities Tourism may have certain hidden concerns in terms of sustainability.
After a round of rebound, the current TTM valuation of China Securities Liquor is 34.75 times (Wind, 2022.12. atrophy;
The 4692.24 point of China Securities Tourism is not only higher than before the epidemic, but also a high level in the six years since 2017 (Wind, 2022.12.23).
We are currently relatively cautious about such industries that rely more on the base of the consumer population. We have not yet had a market for reference in such industries where the total demand is shrinking rapidly and the stock demand is released in stages.
Relatively speaking, we are more optimistic about medical care after economic recovery, and people’s pursuit of life and health is always there.
From the base, the demand brought about by aging is also increasing. From the perspective of the market itself, the adjustment time and space of the CSI Medical Index from the beginning of July 2021 are also sufficient.
We are also more optimistic about the Internet platform. After a new round of clear rules, the Internet platform has also entered a new stage of development, and has obviously entered a period of reversal of difficulties; and the Internet platform has always been our strength. If we can further expand foreign business, the business can sink a little bit. Data There will be great improvements.
We are also more optimistic about brokerages.
On the one hand, there is enough time and space for adjustments. On the other hand, securities companies have gradually demonstrated their investment value after integration and mergers and acquisitions at the moment when the capital market is developing rapidly.
Generally speaking, for the economic recovery sector, we are relatively optimistic about the direction of medicine and medical care, Internet platforms, and securities companies.
4. What kind of strategy is right?
After analyzing our views on the current market and our views on the recovery market, compared with our strategy, it is expected that there will not be much change.
Judging from the strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong, strategically, the equity position is relatively high;
In terms of goals, Quietlying will relatively pursue a higher rate of return, and the risk will be slightly higher, which belongs to the R4-level fund investment portfolio;
Niannianhong, on the other hand, moderately pursues a certain rate of return on the basis of relatively controllable risks, which belongs to the R2 level.
In terms of investment direction, we will not make any major adjustments at the moment. From the perspective of quiet profit strategy, we will maintain our focus on hard technology, basic consumption (agriculture + consumption dividends), medicine and medical care, and outstanding Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong and US stocks. Balanced attention is still our current core strategy;
We will not reduce our attention in this direction because of the short-term adjustment of the hard technology sector. In fact, if this direction continues to be adjusted, we may even gradually increase our attention to this part.
From the current perspective of the entire Chinese economy, breakthroughs in the technology industry represented by new energy, chip semiconductors, and military industry can help China’s economy upgrade and shift gears, and can expand application scenarios and markets without being affected by population shrinkage.
We said that we don’t want to be labeled with any label, neither value style label nor growth style label, we only invest in value and opportunities, what industries and directions have emerged In terms of medium and long-term investment value and opportunities, we will invest in which industry and direction, and this is our strategy.
What kind of strategy is right and suitable for you? There are thousands of people and different faces. We hope that Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong, two investment advisory portfolios, will A relatively general reference can be given.
Summarize the core ideas of this week’s strategy:
1. One of the main reasons for the rapid adjustment of the market is the influence of emotions.
2. We are inclined to the view that the short-term adjustment may be basically over, and the medium- and long-term investment layout window is open.
3. We are more optimistic about the recovery sector, pharmaceutical and medical care, Internet platforms, securities companies and other industries.
4. Maintaining a balanced focus on hard technology, basic consumption (agriculture + consumer dividends), medicine and medical care, and outstanding Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong and US stocks is still our core strategy on Yinhua Tianji-Qiqiyingying.
5. On Mondays, my family will normally vote for a share of Youyouying and Niannianhong. If there is a sharp drop, my family may buy an extra copy of Youyingying.
I am silent, insisting on researching and analyzing funds every day,
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee investors’ income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy instructions, fully understand the details of the portfolio and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio is in line with their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment goals. Investors should follow the principle of “buyer is responsible” when investing in fund investment advisory portfolio strategies. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operating characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment advisory portfolio strategies, investors should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own conditions. Combination strategies, cautiously make investment decisions, and independently bear investment risks. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee a certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The risk characteristics of fund portfolio strategies are different from those of individual fund products. The past performance of investment advisory services does not indicate its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. #Fund Creator Incentive#
@大徐子@底牛MR. HY @李海斌感动指数@基金复基金@Ricky @izhifu
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