Most subjective stocks in 2022 will be an extremely difficult year. Excluding a small number of private equity, most of the subjective stock long private equity has negative returns, and some even hit the largest retracement in history. Some funds that have performed well in the past will also suffer in 2022. Waterloo. Is there any investment value in subjective private equity? How to evaluate whether the manager has the level?
After being in the investor circle for a long time, I found that the common confusion among investors is: “A certain private equity did very well before buying it, but then it overturned after buying it. Buying private equity to make money is just luck.” “Everyone else went up last week. It’s his house that’s down, hot chicken!” “Everyone else is down, but his house’s rise is the most, Fengshen!” “Why are all the funds that have gone up belong to others?” “Private equity is all liars!”
Investors collectively scolded the incompetence and greed of private equity managers in the weekly comparison of the fund’s rise and fall. The final conclusion is: private equity is not as good as public equity, the manager is not worthy of a commission, or subjectively, it is not as good as index growth. In the long run, private equity is the index’s income, and it is better to buy the index and forget it.
Is subjective private placement worth investing in? What is the manager’s investment ability? Why can’t I find out whether it is good or bad before buying? Is it only after buying and losing money that we can know whether it is good or bad?
I don’t have a definite answer, but I would like to say a few common blind spots in investors’ cognition, which may help us eliminate the above confusion.
1. A manager is a man, not a god. It is impossible for him to seize all investment opportunities. He can only grasp a part of investment opportunities. He will definitely miss some opportunities. Sometimes investors will complain why the manager did not grasp the current sector market. If he did not grasp a certain market, can it be concluded that he has no investment ability?
2. The manager is a human being, not a god. He cannot avoid making mistakes. He may sell early on the way up, sell late on the way down, or catch up on the way up, and buy early on the way down. In other words, the rhythm may be wrong. It is impossible for one person to keep pace with all the rhythms of the market for a long time. Timing is difficult but has to be dealt with both macro and micro.
Three . The manager may keep the same strategy and fail to keep up with the ever-changing new situation, or may change the strategy and cross the comfort zone, resulting in loss of control and unsatisfactory. Change = Evolution? Persistence = rigidity? The core is the same, but the evaluation is different depending on the result.
4. In order to adapt to the expansion of active or passive scale, the heavy positions of individual stocks and sectors have decreased, the turnover rate has to be reduced, and the holding cycle has changed from short to long. Large-scale funds are certainly not as flexible as small-scale funds. However, in the era when it is necessary to continuously print money to stimulate the economy, the scale of funds is always expanding. This is the general environment.
Some people may say that the manager is not wrong if he finds a reason for the manager like me? No, what I mean is: we can neither blame managers for seizing every rising opportunity, nor blame them for not making short-term mistakes. We must realize that there is no utopia in investment, and avoid short-term (such as one-year) evaluations. , while giving up managers with investment capabilities. Some investors also have this experience: the performance of a promising fund is not satisfactory one or two years after buying (in fact, at this time, it is necessary to distinguish whether the performance of the market is not good or the performance of the manager is not good), or they do not agree with certain operations of the manager and sell Fund, and then the fund performed well after selling, always repeating the mistakes of stock speculation in chasing ups and downs.
I am not saying that every private equity is worth holding in this way. On the contrary, there are only a few private equity worth holding for a long time, and most of them may not be good investment targets. So how to find a manager with investment ability worth having from a bunch of funds?
My idea is this:
We are not looking for a manager who has always been at the top of the list. We cannot judge the level of a manager by the weekly rise and fall, and we cannot hope that he can catch every round of the market. 3-5 years dimension), managers who can seize as many rising opportunities as possible to make a lot of money while making mistakes and losing less . I pay more attention to the performance within 5 years. The longer the achievements, the lower the gold content, so we must be wary of the evaluation that uses the ten-year annualized rate of return to represent the manager’s level. If it is the same annualized rate of return, I like managers who perform better as they get closer to them, rather than managers who perform better as they get farther away. However, there must be a basic age threshold. I will be more cautious about managers with less than 3 years of public performance. Of course, this is a contradiction: managers with more recent performance have higher returns but may be short-lived; while long-lived managers have strong vitality but may have mediocre performance.
In fact, looking for funds is like being a scout. I have seen too many beauties of all colors, and I have some intuition. If you meet someone who has eyes, you can tell whether the other person is a beauty by looking up and down. Usually if it meets my initial screening criteria at first glance, I will be a little excited, like discovering a treasure, and I can’t wait to discover it. Of course, I can only find beauties that meet my aesthetics. Everyone has different aesthetics. . The next step is to get close to beautiful women. Real natural beauties are scarce, and there are too many women with makeup and beauty filters. We need to develop a pair of sharp eyes.
Then I will ask for in-depth understanding, remove layers of make-up and clothing to reveal the bare face and true colors as much as possible; understand its values, investment system and historical performance review, and basically fill in my research form. If you are willing to observe for a period of time (from a few months to a year), until I have no doubts about the core issues, I can fully believe that this manager has a good sustainable investment ability. Once confirmed, I will choose the opportunity to buy, and I will not sell within a year. If the manager has obvious signs of making mistakes, I will give a friendly reminder to see the effect later, but if there is a fundamental change in my judgment of the manager’s ability in the future, I will immediately stop the loss. I will continue to observe or give up on funds that I do not understand or have doubts about. I will not gamble on the future based on performance, but once I am optimistic, I will choose an opportunity to start, as quiet as a virgin.
Some people will say that it is too difficult to find a good subjective manager. It is like looking for a needle in a haystack. After a few years of tossing around, it is better to invest directly in index enhancement, and even the excess index increase will become smaller and smaller in the future. Just invest directly in index ETF. Make no mistake, the end result of a bunch of funds may be the rate of return of the index. The effectiveness of the market is the result of countless human subjective efforts. You cannot say that subjectivity is meaningless, and only through unremitting subjective efforts can the final benefits of the market be achieved. When the funds are small, it may be possible to invest in all indexes, but when the amount of funds reaches a certain level, all investment indexes will increase. Are investors willing to lie flat? The result of our last efforts may be average, but who wants to lie flat? This is human nature, tossing and tossing until death.
I am not complaining about subjective private equity, nor denying growth, but just expressing some thoughts, so that investors will not feel painful because of wrong perceptions during the investment process. When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, or suck it up.
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