【rumor】
Recently, a dinner…
Attendees: Two star fund managers from XX Da and X Fa, secretary to the board of directors of digital photovoltaic listed companies…
Easter eggs: In 2022Q4, silicon wafers plummeted, TCL Central lost 3 billion, and Longi Green Energy lost 2 billion.
【assumption】
The above rumors (not the content of the rumors) are true.
【analyze】
Since November 2022, the long-lost and inevitable price war for silicon wafers has begun. Silicon wafer factories dream of returning to the tragic knockout game from 2015 to 2019. At the same time, PVInfolink blatantly lied, covering up the fact that the bulk cost of silicon wafers (silicon material) has been synchronized, or even ahead, plummeted. Therefore, it seems that the silicon wafer factory is losing money and making money, cutting the throats of its peers (yuān jiɑ), but in fact,…
If calculated based on the spot price of silicon materials at the same time, although it has lost the hidden income of stockpiling materials in the previous price increase cycle, Zhonghuan still has a normal gross profit of 10-15% (= the price of silicon wafers in the same period – the silicon wafers in the same period) Material cost – standard non-silicon cost), Longi is even higher. Therefore, if the loss of material hoarding is not considered, the wafer profit of Zhonghuan in 22Q4 is about 1 billion.
Considering the loss of materials, Zhonghuan’s silicon wafer part has changed from +1 billion to -3 billion, a loss of 4 billion. How much silicon material does Zhonghuan need to stockpile at the end of Q3?
Accrual and impairment of polysilicon = polysilicon inventory x (end price – beginning price)
According to the results of the “run-in” between the supply and demand sides, the silicon material has “slumped over the New Year” (the same batch of material will be delivered at 23:59:59 on December 31, 2022, and the price is 200; at 0:00 on January 1, 2023 Delivery at 0 minutes and 01 seconds, the price is 150. Whether such a huge price difference caused by 2 seconds is reasonable is open to different opinions, but this is reality. Accounting is about evidence, and accounting evidence only supports the 2022 silicon material inventory of the silicon wafer factory according to 200 provision for impairment), so
– 4 billion = polysilicon inventory x (200 – 300)
Inventory of end-silicon material in Q3 in Central = 40,000,000 kg = 40,000 tons? ? ?
This is impossible. The reasons are as follows:
① In the past two years, Zhonghuan has indeed taken material grabbing as the main game and profit method. However, before that, the supply of silicon materials has risen sharply, the end demand is weak, and the price of silicon materials is about to plummet. If Zhonghuan is really stupid enough to hoard 40+% of the global silicon material supply in September at this node, then this company will become a pure fool, and it is not worth me to ridicule them from time to time.
②Central has already called out “high turnover” (low inventory), which must include the compression of raw materials as much as possible. Turnover rate = production/storage, although Zhonghuan has to discount at least 50% for everything that Zhonghuan said, but it is not enough to reversely increase the inventory of silicon materials, so that the turnover rate will not rise but fall.
Comprehensive consideration, I think that the normal production and operation of Q4 silicon wafers in Zhonghuan is +1 billion and the loss of material stock is -2 billion. The probability of an overall loss of 1 billion is more than 90%. In the 2022Q4 of Fangfeng Central, on the silicon wafer side, the loss of 4 billion due to hoarding materials, and the overall loss of 3 billion are completely out of common sense and reality, and the motivation is incredible.
It’s always been Central’s nonsense, but this time it turned into Central being rumored, why? When things go wrong, there must be evildoers. What is the real purpose of this story meeting?
【try to figure out】
Although the story begins in Central, it is the true leader of silicon wafers, the leader of photovoltaics, LONGi Green Energy, and the biggest beneficiaries of the stockpiling neck, the highly hyped CNC and Shuangliang Energy Saving. , Gaojing, Jingyuntong…but they were deliberately ignored.
In the past two years, LONGi has been the double focus of various ghost stories in the photovoltaic industry circle and the capital circle. The capital circle is fascinated by “subverting LONGi” and looking for the “next LONGi” web page link , and the industry circle is fascinated by LONGi . . What’s more, the industry circle and the capital circle played double reeds, even directly spreading rumors.
On April 8, 21, a former global module leader who had been beaten to death by LONGi once made a live broadcast of rumors that “LONGi lost 1.7 billion in the first quarter”, which caused me to be forced by the veterans to refute the rumors and bring out my God calculates web links . From -17 to 20+, there is a gap of about 4 billion inside and outside.
Some time ago, some large funds that were heavily invested in Longji secretly started off-market short-selling in the last round of financing. Although I couldn’t persuade them before, I couldn’t bear to see the veterans being exploded in batches. I predicted that Longji’s 2023H1 net profit would be 15 billion yuan half a year in advance, and judged that Longji would grab around 120,000/ton in the short term . Material wars, reshaping the pattern of silicon wafers . (The purpose of my doing this is to reconcile among investors, maintain righteousness, and look at the long run. If it hinders anyone from making money, it is pure helplessness, but it is absolutely just.)
【It is rumored】
① LONGi’s IR was surprised and made an internal inquiry. The finance said that the logic of raising interest rates was correct, and the salesman said that the meaning of silicon materials was the same. Therefore, the latest caliber of IR is 13 billion (first half). (In fact, I hope that LONGi will take the initiative to push it down to 100 and save it for release later. Reducing performance fluctuations will increase shareholder value, and it will be more beneficial for the long-term to blow up some roadblocks in advance .)
②The top management of LONGi has sold 12W of silicon material, more than 2W tons, I can’t help it, locked…, big stop profit.
【convinced】
Believe it or not, my judgment is that real foreign investment is true. LONGi’s recent foreign investment dynamics are resolute , and it is better to close the empty positions of domestic investors as soon as possible. Using the rumor at the beginning of this article to cover up for Longji, it is now over, which is considered a small stop profit anyway.
Beating up others is fun for a while, but being beaten up by others regrets for a lifetime. Hengpi: Why bother, comrades, why bother! ![[笑]](http://js.xueqiu.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_01_smile.png "[laugh]"){kind=small}
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