In fact, Haikong is not very lucky . It is obviously a good upward cycle, but it has encountered a sudden economic recession. So the stock price is very tormented.
Some sailors are actually lucky . If the stock price jumped a little more all the way last year, even if it fell in September, it would not be as cheap as it is now. Bad for long-term equity collection.
Everything must be seen from both sides. The problem that Haikong encounters is the certainty in the context of macro uncertainty.
Uncertainty refers to the uncertainty of short-term and medium-term container demand changes that will affect the market’s perception of the valuation of the sea sector, that is, beta does not need to be thought about for the time being.
But Haikong Snowball has dug deep, and so many people who are willing to share have explained Haikong’s own competitive advantages, which means that its Alpha is sufficient.
Of course, the bears may not admit it, so what does this mean? For me, the Alpha of Haikong is enough to attract me to take a 90% position. In the future, the position will only be increased according to the actual situation.
It’s just that the macro uncertainty is too high , and the pace of raising positions should be slower. And we have to observe again, to what extent the alliance’s ability can be controlled.
My current focus will be more on Europe.
The so-called recession is likely to be Europe > the United States in the future; the so-called demand decreases, and the future recession in the United States is also better than in Europe. The question in Europe is whether the entity will be hit and the unemployment rate will rise. This superimposed energy price hike is no joke.
In fact, Europe has now collapsed, or is on the way to collapse. However, I am still very satisfied with the freight rate of the European line, which shows that the alliance has a good grasp of the elasticity of supply on this line. If the demand in Europe is in the end, and the freight rate is still in a position that I am more satisfied with, then the supply elasticity control ability of other routes will eventually gradually develop to the European route. At that time, I estimate that the warehouse will be full or even increased by financing.
I always have two pictures in my mind, but I just don’t bother to draw it every time I start a pen. ![[滴汗]](http://js.xueqiu.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_13_coldsweat.png "[drip sweat]"){kind=small}
One is a graph of global trade volatility based on past decades and the next few years. The other is the competitiveness ranking of various airlines in different periods. Based on these two charts, decide which one to invest in the container shipping industry when. Of course, there is no easy choice for big A, and there is no easy choice.
Pro-Yuan Xian fish, as retreat webs! The future likes certainty, and it is safer to invest in energy. It’s just that I can’t be envious of this state. The container shipping industry with more poor expectations can give me more cheap equity at this stage, which is my favorite style.
As for those shorts who have nothing to do with traffic, show their superiority, or cheat chips, it is best to take a break and save some energy. Haikong has a bunch of people who only buy and not sell and prepare for the sea of stars and a bunch of people who are waiting to break the capital. There are not many people who are willing to cut meat. In the context of high interest rates, time is the enemy of big money, make no mistake about this! $COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(SH601919)$ $COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(01919)$ $Orient Overseas International(00316)$
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