▲Wan Minyuan, fund manager of Rongtong Fund
In recent years, suppressed by multiple factors such as policies, valuations, and fundamentals, the pharmaceutical sector has undergone substantial adjustments. In an extremely unfavorable market environment, Wan Minyuan, the fund manager of Rongtong Health Industry, went against the current and achieved significant excess returns. Moreover, the performance stability is good and the drawdown is relatively small, which has attracted the attention of the market.
Wan Minyuan is a doctor of biomedicine from Sichuan University. He has been deeply involved in pharmaceutical investment for more than ten years. He has a deep understanding of the pharmaceutical industry and investment, and is recognized by research institutions as a maverick retrograde. He likes reverse investment, basically does not participate in group stocks, but prefers to look for relatively unpopular undervalued stocks. Even in the craziest moment of the pharmaceutical stock market in the fourth quarter of 2020, he remained calm and insisted not to make money from valuation bubbles .
Wan Minyuan’s determination comes from his excellent pricing ability on pharmaceutical assets and his rational judgment on market cycles. He has been rewarded with time, and his performance in the short, medium and long term ranks among the top among similar funds. According to data from Galaxy Securities, the performance of Rongtong’s health industry in 2022 will be 3.76% (the performance comparison benchmark for the same period is -13.92%), ranking 2/60 among similar funds in the pharmaceutical, medical and health industry; The health industry achieved a rate of return of 98.83% (the performance comparison benchmark for the same period was 12.52%), ranking 2/34 among similar funds; Rongtong Health Industry achieved a rate of return of 210.78% in the past five years (the performance comparison benchmark for the same period was 15.22%), ranking 1/34 twenty two.
Another market-wide fund he manages that has been established for more than one year has also performed well. Rongtong Xinxin Growth Fund was established in October 2021 and has withstood the test of the market decline in 2022. Since its establishment, it has gained 21.44% by the end of 2022 ( Compared with the benchmark performance in the same period, it fell by 16.39%) excellent performance.
A few days ago, Wan Minyuan accepted an interview with a China reporter from the Securities Times. He said that he is risk-averse in his bones, so the core of buying assets is the margin of safety. He hopes to smooth out the fluctuation of the net value of the product to a certain extent. The benefits of a valuation bubble. His investment style is to buy when no one cares, and sell when people are buzzing. He believes that when no one cares about the market, there is enough time to slowly buy cheap targets, and when everyone is optimistic about rushing into the market, he will leave The risk is not far away.
Wanminyuan loves investment. He raises the products he manages like a child. He hopes to keep learning and evolving. Through refined management, he strives to continuously create new highs in product performance and bring long-term excellent returns to holders. Whether it is Rongtong Health Industry or Rongtong Xinxin, he has self-purchased, and many colleagues are also his owners. The management pressure is not small, but he is full of confidence in the future. He especially hopes that the holders understand his investment philosophy. In his opinion, customers can’t make money beyond their cognition. Confident long-term holding.
Highlights:
“On the road of investment, there are often situations where the interpretation of reality is inconsistent with expectations. At this time, we must understand the market, respect the market, and fear the market, rather than sticking to ourselves.”
“The core of my buying assets is that the margin of safety is high. It is acceptable not to rise for a period of time, but I can’t lose a lot of money. My investment style is to buy when no one cares, and sell when there is a lot of people and no one cares about the market. There are investment opportunities in probability, and when everyone is optimistic about rushing in, the risk is not far away, although it may continue to rise, but you have to run fast, otherwise you may encounter a roller coaster market.”
“Reverse investment must do more in-depth research, and must produce more sufficient evidence to prove that it makes sense for you to be different. You can buy it if it falls too much. The old drivers tell you not to catch the falling knife , Many stocks can fall again if they fall, and if the performance of the next year or the next year goes down, the valuation will become more expensive, and it will become a value trap.”
“The investment portfolio is a process of dynamic management, which requires constant price-performance analysis. I hope that the constructed portfolio has a soul, a sense of hierarchy, and a gradient. I hope that at any time, about half of the assets in my portfolio are on the right side. Half of the assets are on the left, of course, this is an idealized assumption, and it may not be accurate in practice.”
“Profit and loss come from the same source, and investing in the ultimate track investment fluctuates greatly. When the mood is optimistic, it may rise very high, and when the mood is pessimistic, it will fall miserably. My character is naturally risk-averse, and I prefer the funds I manage. Probably smaller, so I have a more balanced configuration and never bet on a certain track.”
“The pharmaceutical sector has been adjusted for two years, and the range is not small. The BETA of the entire pharmaceutical industry is still at the bottom. Therefore, every time the market is pessimistic, I have confidence and always say that this position can be considered for buying. I am not I said it casually, but I think that when the market falls near the bottom, it is the best time to invest in cost-effective. So, I got the year-end bonus last year, I bought the fund I managed, and I will put it in the bonus next year, unless the medical There is a big bubble in the plate.”
“Asset pricing is a very complicated process, which is based on comparative analysis. Only through the comparison of various assets can we determine whether a certain type of asset is attractive. Only by comparing the assets of the entire market can we determine whether the pharmaceutical stocks at a certain point in time are valuable. , The same is true within the pharmaceutical industry. Only if you are familiar with the assets of each subdivision of the pharmaceutical industry, and through full comparative analysis, can you know whether a certain subdivision is cost-effective. It is impossible to price only one subdivision. From this perspective, managing the entire market fund is a deeper level of progress.”
“Investment is very complicated. I often communicate on the phone after twelve o’clock in the evening, because I need to keep track of many new policies and changes. The second day after I was infected with the new crown, I was still broadcasting live when I had a fever. The voice was not normal in the next few days, but I still did a few institutional roadshows. Although the work intensity is high, my investment style and investment philosophy match and are self-consistent, so I don’t feel too tired, and I really like this industry, and my interest is the best teacher.”
The following is the transcript of the interview:
“The alternation of bulls and bears like a roller coaster forms the underlying logic of risk aversion”
Broker China Reporter: You are a doctor of biomedicine from Sichuan University. Why did you choose to enter the securities industry?
Wan Minyuan: Studying medicine requires repeated experiments for a long time, which I find rather boring. When I was in school, I started planning to develop in the direction of finance, and learned some financial knowledge by myself. I have a wide range of interests. Doing securities research and investment is not as specialized as studying medicine, but I have a wide range of contacts. I need to pay attention to changes at all levels of society, technological progress and various new things. It is more suitable for me. After more than ten years in the industry, I have found more and more that I love investing very much, and I am very grateful for my choice at the beginning.
Broker China Reporter: You have been in the industry since 2011. Please tell us about the events or investment cases that had the greatest impact on your investment framework in your early experience.
Wan Minyuan: It is difficult to have a deep understanding of the market without being ravaged by the market. In 2015, I invested in private equity funds. At the beginning, the stock market rose sharply, and our performance was also very good. However, in mid-June, the stock market plummeted, and the considerable increase in net worth quickly returned to zero. The customer experience was quite bad, and we were also under pressure. mountain big. This roller coaster-like market had a huge impact on me. I began to be risk-averse and very wary of valuation bubbles in the market and individual stocks. In 2016, I returned to the public offering fund and managed the Rongtong Health Industry Fund. Although I made relative returns, I still maintained the concept of absolute returns. I was willing to give up the money to earn valuation bubbles. investment experience.
Broker China reporter: 2017 is the first full year for you to manage financing and health industry funds. The performance of the year was relatively low. Why?
Wan Minyuan: After the bubble market of small and medium-cap stocks from 2013 to 2015, I naturally paid more attention to small and medium-cap stocks. When I took over Rongtong Health Industry Fund, small and medium-cap stocks had fallen sharply. I thought it was possible to buy the bottom. Unexpectedly Stocks with small and medium market capitalization have been falling endlessly, and my performance is also relatively poor. It’s not that these small and medium-cap companies are not good, and many of them have grown into large-cap companies later, but when I bought them, their valuations were still relatively expensive, while many leading Baima pharmaceutical stocks were very cheap at the time, and they were more investment-worthy. value. The unfavorable start has prompted me to revise my investment philosophy since 2018. When making investment decisions, I must focus on the matching degree between valuation and growth, and resolutely refrain from buying too expensive assets. In the middle of 2018, I started to increase my position in some large-cap companies with lower valuations and better growth. At this time, small stocks gradually fell out of value. There is not much difference between small stocks and large stocks. It mainly depends on individual stocks. cost-effective.
Broker China reporter: After 2019, you have achieved excellent long-term performance. Please tell us about the source of your performance.
Wan Minyuan: 2019-2020 is a big bull market for pharmaceutical stocks. During this period, some subdivisions of the pharmaceutical industry began to rise, such as CXO. Especially after the epidemic in 2020, many subdivisions have seen good investment Opportunities, the performance of medical funds are mostly good. By the end of 2020, the market of pharmaceutical stocks has become crazy, and the valuations of leading companies in the booming track represented by CXO are very expensive, and some companies have a PE of more than 100 or even 200 times. At that time, among the pharmaceutical funds, the performance of the Rongtong health industry was not very good, especially when the leading companies rose rapidly in the fourth quarter, their performance was relatively lagging behind. Why? Because I was afraid of heights at the time, I judged that the bubble was too big, so I sold most of the CXO companies and bought undervalued small-cap companies. Most of the latter focused on the domestic market and had little influence from overseas. At that time Such companies have a high degree of prosperity, but their valuations are cheap. After the Spring Festival in 2021, the leading pharmaceutical stocks that were highly sought after in the past two years began to fall all the way, while undervalued small market capitalization companies were more resilient, so my fund’s retracement was also small.
Although the last market was crazy and it was difficult for us to judge where the top is, I have a value anchor, which is the matching of valuation and growth. When the valuation far exceeds the growth, I am willing to take the initiative to retreat at a high level and give up the valuation Profit from bubbles.
Broker China Reporter: In 2022, the market will be depressed, coupled with the impact of centralized procurement, pharmaceutical stocks will continue to fall, but you have obtained positive returns. How do you operate?
Wan Minyuan: I am not pessimistic at the beginning of 2022. I did not expect so many black swan events. On the road of investment, there are often situations where the reality interpretation is inconsistent with expectations. At this time, we must understand the market, respect the market, and fear the market , instead of insisting on oneself blindly. In 2022, the pharmaceutical stock market continued the downward trend in 2021. Once the hottest tracks such as CXO continued to fall all the way. In the past, the positions of institutions in these tracks were relatively concentrated, and there was a certain degree of stampede. I substantially reduced my positions in such stocks in 2020, so I was basically not injured. On the contrary, in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, when the leading companies in these popular tracks fell to the bottom, I began to increase my positions one after another, and copied some big stocks. At the bottom of the company’s market capitalization, it has earned some positive returns.
Going with the trend can only make beta money, not alpha money
Broker China Reporter: Many research institutions believe that your investment style is unique. Please tell us about your investment framework.
Wan Minyuan: My investment framework can be summed up as uprightness and surprises, reverse investment, “upright” is an excellent company that everyone is familiar with, and “odd” is the so-called dark horse. When building a combination, I have three principles: one is to look for alpha in a good beta. Sometimes my combination looks quite different from those of my peers, but in fact they are similar in spirit but not in shape. The track I choose is similar to everyone else. They are all subdivided industries with high prosperity or large development space, but in the selection of individual stocks, I prefer relatively unpopular and undervalued dark horses; the second is to give up the benefits of valuation bubbles and not earn the last copper plate , There are no stocks with obvious bubbles in my portfolio. I don’t hold targets with obvious high valuations, so I can sleep well at night, and I don’t worry that the stocks I hold will fall sharply the next day. If they do fall, I may increase my position; third, it takes a long time to build a position in reverse investment. I usually consider building a position in half a year, and I have enough time to do research, so the probability of making a mistake is relatively low, and if I buy at the bottom, even if I make a mistake, the cost of stopping the loss is not high.
The core of my buying assets is that the margin of safety is high. It is acceptable not to rise for a period of time, but I cannot lose a lot of money. My investment style is to buy when no one cares, and sell when people are buzzing and no one cares about the market. There is a high probability that there will be investment opportunities. When everyone is optimistic about rushing in, the risk is not far away, although It may continue to rise, but you have to run fast, otherwise you may encounter a roller coaster market. In essence, I make judgments based on the matching of valuation and growth. For example, there is a leading pharmaceutical company that was sought after by institutions two years ago, with a market value of over 200 billion yuan. I thought it was too expensive and liquidated it. The company fell to With a market value of more than 60 billion, I thought it was very valuable, so I bought it back.
Broker China reporter: Will there be greater pressure to be independent?
Wan Minyuan: The pressure was relatively high in the early days, but gradually I became more and more confident. If you follow the trend and buy assets that everyone is optimistic about, the probability of making mistakes will be lower, and even if you make mistakes, the pressure will not be so great. But following the trend will always only earn Beta, not Alpha, because the assets that everyone is optimistic about will not only not be cheap, but will often be expensive. The pressure of reverse investment will definitely be greater. Everyone is not optimistic and is selling. Why do you think others are wrong? It must be because the company has unfavorable factors at the moment, it will be sold and it will be cheaper, so most of the stocks I bought will not have a good growth rate in the current period. Therefore, some investors asked: Is your reverse investment just to choose stocks with poorer quality? Actually not, I just choose things that are different from everyone’s expectations. And I am not simply picking stocks with low PE. Low valuation is just a condition, and more conditions must be met to enter my field of vision. %. A growth rate of less than 20% is a value stock, and I generally don’t consider it. It’s not that value stocks are bad, but I prefer to invest in growth stocks.
Broker China Reporter: Where does your confidence in reverse investing come from?
Wan Minyuan: You must do more in-depth research on reverse investment, and you must produce more sufficient evidence to prove that it makes sense for you to be different. It’s not that you can buy it if it falls too much. The old drivers will tell you that a bear market does not say anything. There is also a stock market saying that don’t catch the falling knife. Many stocks can fall again after falling. If the performance of the next year or the next year goes down , the valuation will become expensive, and it will become a value trap. The core is asset pricing ability. When you know where the anchor of value is, you will not panic like everyone else. If you judge that the company’s fundamentals may reverse strongly in the next one or two quarters, you can open a position on the left side, of course. Control the rhythm and buy slowly. If a stock is not worth holding for three to five years, I will most likely not take a heavy position. It is not necessary to hold it for three to five years. If the stock has a large increase after I buy it, I may reduce my position. If the performance and stock price grow at the same rate, the valuation and performance always match, and there is always a price/performance ratio, I will also take a lot of money. long time.
Broker China Reporter: What else may cause a value trap?
Wan Minyuan: Another value trap is performance fraud. Some companies are indeed very cheap, but no one buys them. We have to consider whether there may be performance fraud. Falsification is not difficult to verify. We have studied a pharmaceutical company before, claiming to be a leader in the industry. We found in the research that none of the upstream and downstream companies have used its products.
Assets are priced by comparing
Broker China reporter: How do you build a portfolio?
Wan Minyuan: I hope to build a combination with a soul, a sense of hierarchy, and a gradient. I hope that at any time, about half of my portfolio assets are on the right side, and half of the assets are on the left side. This is an idealized idea, and it is the model I am pursuing. It may not be accurate in practice. I buy stocks with the left side of thinking, but if the stocks in the portfolio are all on the left side, they may not rise for a long time. When I buy a class of assets, I will predict how long it will take for it to perform. I bought it half a year ago. The stocks may be on the right side by now. If they rise more, I will slowly reduce the position, and then increase the position of some assets that I am optimistic about are still on the left side. Portfolio is a dynamic management process. It is not traded every day, but it needs to do cost-effective analysis continuously.
Broker China Reporter: How do you do cost performance analysis?
Wan Minyuan: The core of investment is to price assets. It is relatively easy to judge the development prospects of a company, but it is difficult to determine what the market value should be. Market value is closely related to market sentiment and liquidity. The pricing of assets is a rather complicated process, which is obtained through comparative analysis. Only by comparing various assets can we determine whether a certain type of asset is attractive. For example, only by comparing the assets of the whole market can we determine whether a pharmaceutical stock is valuable at a certain point in time. The same is true within the pharmaceutical industry. Whether there is cost-effectiveness in a subdivided track depends on only one subdivision field, and it is impossible to set a price. In addition, the market is also one of the key factors in asset pricing. In a bear market, 20 times PE is considered expensive, while in a bull market, 40 times PE is considered cheap.
Broker China reporter: How do you evaluate your pricing power in the pharmaceutical industry?
Wan Minyuan: I graduated from a major in medicine, and I have studied the pharmaceutical industry for a long time. I have a deep understanding of the industry as a whole. I have closely tracked and studied new technologies, new products, and new directions, and I am relatively familiar with various assets. , Still have strong confidence in pricing.
Broker China reporter: Will you ALL IN one or two tracks?
Wan Minyuan: My allocation in the pharmaceutical segment is relatively balanced. I will never bet on a certain track or any segment. No matter how optimistic I am, the proportion of my investment portfolio will not be very high, very extreme. , For example, when CXO is the most popular, it only accounts for 30% of my portfolio at most. If 30% of the weight has been given and the performance has not improved, it can only mean that the selected target is not good. Investing is essentially a matter of probability. I often make mistakes and maintain a balanced allocation. Even if I make mistakes, the impact on the portfolio will not be too great, and systemic risks can be avoided. Profits and losses come from the same source, and investing in the ultimate track investment fluctuates greatly. When the mood is optimistic, it may rise very high, and when the mood is pessimistic, it will fall miserably. My character is naturally risk-averse. Maybe smaller.
Broker China Reporter: According to public information, you hold more small and medium-cap stocks. Do you prefer small and medium-cap pharmaceutical stocks?
Wan Minyuan: Stocks don’t matter to me big or small. I pay more attention to the matching degree between valuation and growth, and I have no prejudice or obsession with stocks. Starting from 2019, the leading stocks on the economic track have been highly sought after. By the end of 2020, the valuations of leading stocks will be very expensive. Therefore, since 2021, there will be fewer large stocks in my portfolio. However, after nearly two years of adjustments, the valuations of many companies with large market capitalization have become very attractive. I also increased my position in large stocks in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Therefore, I held more small stocks in the past two years, which was just a phased result of a specific market style.
In-depth research + comprehensive verification to determine the anchor of enterprise value
Broker China reporter: What are your criteria for choosing a company?
Wan Minyuan: I select companies from a top-down and bottom-up perspective. The first is to select promising industries from a mesoscopic perspective, and then to research companies from the bottom up. There is a lot of homework to be done when researching a company: first, look at the financial statements; second, go to the company for field research to understand the company’s strategy, the level of core technical personnel, etc.; All-round verification; Fourth, research competitors. For example, if we want to study medical device companies, we will go to Olympus, a world-leading company, to investigate how they view their domestic competitors. If you can win the approval of your competitors, you can basically be sure that it is a good company. Through in-depth research, first have a relatively clear understanding and judgment of the company, and then combine the valuation and future growth conditions to give a relatively accurate price. Of course, it may continue to fall, but with the anchor of value, the more it falls and the cheaper it is, the more we dare to buy it.
Broker China reporter: Please tell me a successful investment case.
Wan Minyuan: There is a biopharmaceutical company established more than 20 years ago. It was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2019, with a market value of only more than 4 billion yuan. Some companies established at the same time have grown into industry leaders with a market value of over 200 billion. This company It has not been developed for so many years, and everyone will inevitably have some prejudice against it. When the company went public, I was very optimistic. At that time, there was very little institutional coverage and research. Even when I went to do research, the company asked me, why do you care about our company? I explained that domestic innovative drugs will rise, and you will also benefit. The company dubiously said that it has not yet felt the industry dividend. Half a year later, the company said that its business had improved, and half a year later, the company’s orders had already exploded. I bought the upper limit at a low price after the company went public. I didn’t expect the stock price to rise very fast, and it didn’t take long for it to rise five times. At this time, the market began to be interested in it, and I started to withdraw slowly. When the market value was 100 million yuan, I had already cleared the position, but it rose to a market value of 50 billion yuan at the highest, an overall increase of 12 times.
I especially enjoy researching the history of a company and even why it’s bad. If it didn’t work in the past, will it not work in the future? Through research, I found that during the financial crisis in 2008, almost all companies in the CXO industry began to slowly go overseas, but the boss of the above-mentioned company believed that China’s innovative drugs would definitely rise. His judgment was correct but he was ahead of his time. It has gone through a long development process. Because the investment in innovative drugs is very large, and it takes a long time to produce results, the company has had a difficult time for a long time. 2018 is a watershed year for innovative drugs in China. The policy encourages innovation in China, and the newly launched medical insurance negotiations are also very supportive of innovative drugs. As long as it is a real innovative drug, it is easy to enter the medical insurance. In addition, innovative drugs can be reviewed first, and the approval speed is greatly accelerated. There are many similar policy supports, including talent bonuses. After the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, non-profitable companies can also go public for financing. Innovative companies can easily get money, can give high remuneration to R&D personnel, and can dig overseas talents. All are available, and innovative drugs are developing rapidly. In the past, China’s innovations were imported, but now more and more Chinese companies license their products to overseas giants, which can sell for billions of dollars. This shows that China’s innovative drugs have indeed risen. In this process, focus on Domestic pharmaceutical companies have benefited considerably.
Broker China Reporter: What should I do if I make a mistake?
Wan Minyuan: It is not easy to judge a company that has reversed its difficulties, and it is common to make mistakes. After seeing more companies that have reversed their difficulties, my expectations for them will be lower, because business operations are continuous and will not easily reverse so quickly. I bought a pharmaceutical company in Guangdong. The main product is a kind of traditional Chinese medicine pills, which sold very well in 2018. The company also has an Internet platform for selling medicines. In theory, it is a very good direction. The financing in the primary market can be To four or five billion. At that time, the company’s valuation was very low, with a market value of only 5 billion yuan. I tried to buy a little bit, and then went to the company for research. But the executives of the company are not interested in the company’s development issues that I care about at all, and prefer to emphasize that the company bought a piece of land in Guangzhou and made a billion yuan. I am not optimistic about this model that obviously deviates from the main business and makes quick money. Sold it when I got back. This company later engaged in the health care industry, and it was encountering a downturn in real estate. Now this company is about to delist. The company’s foundation is very good, and if it is managed by an excellent management team, it is still very promising. Therefore, buying a company is buying management. If the company’s management is not good, its value will be damaged, no matter how cheap it is.
Self-purchase again and raise your own products as children
Broker China Reporter: Not long ago, you purchased a fund you managed yourself.
Wan Minyuan: I raise the product like a child. I bought a lot of products that I managed, and many colleagues also bought my products. I hope to do my best to make the products I manage continue to hit new highs and bring long-term better returns to investors.
I am characterized by a balanced allocation and a focus on valuation, so the short-term performance will not be particularly outstanding, but the stability will be better, and the retracement will be relatively low. I hope that when the market rises, it can keep up, and when the market falls, it will be relatively stable. , long-term accumulation and strive to obtain better returns. I especially hope that the holders understand my investment philosophy. No one can make money beyond their knowledge for a long time. Only when they have a good understanding, understand my investment philosophy, and know how my performance comes from, can they have the confidence to continue to hold .
The pharmaceutical sector has been adjusted for two years, and the range is not small. The beta of the entire pharmaceutical sector is still at the bottom. Therefore, every time the market is pessimistic, I have confidence. I always say that this position can be considered to buy, not just saying it casually, but thinking that when the market falls near the bottom, it is the best time to invest in cost-effective. So, when I got the year-end bonus last year, I bought my fund, and I will put in the bonus next year, unless there is a big bubble in the pharmaceutical sector.
Broker China reporter: In October 2021, Rongtong Xinxin Growth Fund was established. This is your first time managing a market-wide fund. Is there any pressure? Why consider managing a market-wide fund?
Wan Minyuan: Medicine is my old line of business. In the field of medicine, my pricing power is relatively strong, and I dare to make reverse investments and take heavy positions. In the stock selection of the whole market, I currently mainly choose stocks that everyone recognizes, and I dare not concentrate as much as buying pharmaceutical stocks, and the proportion of heavily held stocks is relatively low. In the future, I will strengthen my studies, hoping to find sectors and individual stocks that I can price in the whole market. Investing is a process of continuous learning and continuous improvement. I am very familiar with medicine, but I hope to expand my circle of competence, because assets are obtained by comparison. Only by understanding other industries can I have a deeper understanding of whether medicine is at this point in time. Value, if you just stare at the pharmaceutical sector all day long, you can only do the price-performance ratio within the pharmaceutical industry. Therefore, managing the entire market fund is a deeper level of progress. In addition, the society is constantly developing, and various new technologies emerge one after another, which are very interesting and worth learning.
Specifically, I have the same concept of managing the whole market fund as I manage the medical fund. They are both reverse investments. Now that energy and photovoltaics have fallen, I am interested in researching them. Expanding circles is a process of slow learning and practice.
Broker China Reporter: In your opinion, from the perspective of the whole industry, what needs to be reflected on the past practice of pharmaceutical investment?
Wan Minyuan: In the past two years, the pharmaceutical industry has experienced large fluctuations, and pharmaceutical funds have also experienced large fluctuations. From this perspective, investing in pharmaceuticals does require independent thinking and respect for the market.
Broker China reporter: How can one become an excellent fund manager?
Wan Minyuan: To become an excellent fund manager, you need to be very diligent and have a strong learning ability, and constantly correct yourself. The market is constantly changing, and investment must also change. Not only the portfolio is changing, but the investment thinking must also change.
Investing is very complicated, and I often communicate on the phone after 12 o’clock in the evening, because I need to track many new policies and changes. On the second day after I was infected with the new crown, I was still broadcasting live when I had a fever. The voice was not normal in the next few days, but I still did a few institutional roadshows. Although the work intensity is high, my investment style and investment philosophy are compatible and self-consistent, so I don’t feel too tired, and I really like this industry. Interest is the best teacher.
Broker China reporter: If the market gets stronger, will you become aggressive?
Wan Minyuan: I hope that my style is relatively stable, and I have to correct myself in the areas where I did not do well in the past, but don’t let my style drift. I want to be self-consistent in investing, and I need to know what kind of money I am making.
Broker China reporter: Scale has always been the natural enemy of performance. Your management scale has increased significantly. Will it affect your performance?
Wan Minyuan: Scale will have a greater impact on a trading player. I am a reverse investor. The time I set for myself to buy on the left side is usually half a year, and I will also sell slowly on the right side in advance. The size of the product will not have any impact on stock trading. Of course, in the past, I could buy 8 percentage points when I bought companies with small and medium market capitalization. Now that the scale is larger, I may only be able to buy 5 percentage points. From this perspective, there will be some impact, but it can be solved by buying a few more stocks. If the scale is large to a certain extent, there may be an impact, but the impact is not significant at present.
Medicine should perform well this year
Broker China reporter: How do you see the performance of pharmaceutical stocks in the future?
Wan Minyuan: I am more optimistic about the performance of pharmaceutical stocks this year. The reasons are as follows: First, the pharmaceutical industry has been adjusted for two years, and the positions of all market funds in pharmaceutical stocks are at the bottom, and the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks is also at the bottom; The fundamentals of the industry are expected to usher in a relatively large improvement. Everyone tends to think that medicine will benefit from the epidemic. In fact, except for epidemic prevention, most pharmaceutical companies are damaged, and the number of patients in hospitals has not yet recovered. The level before the epidemic, after the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the demand for medicines should gradually return to the previous state; third, the new crown epidemic will indeed bring a very large increase to the pharmaceutical industry, not just simple cold and fever-reducing medicines, After everyone is healthy, the awareness of health care may increase, the demand for health care will be relatively large, and the demand for delayed satisfaction in similar consumption scenarios will also increase in the future; the fourth is the marginal improvement of policies. The pharmaceutical industry is more sensitive to policies. In the past two years, You can see that the centralized procurement has a great impact, but the recent centralized procurement policy has become relatively moderate. The price cuts in the centralized procurement that have been negotiated recently have not been particularly large in contract renewal negotiations. Price increases are allowed. Fundamentals are improving and the policy of medical insurance is easing, and the industry is at the bottom. Based on the comprehensive judgment of many factors, the pharmaceutical industry may perform better this year.
Broker China reporter: Your main allocation direction?
Wan Minyuan: At present, I think there are two main opportunities for the pharmaceutical industry: innovation and post-epidemic recovery. Innovation includes innovative drugs, innovative devices, innovative drugs include CXO, and companies with low correlation with the new crown and relatively good orders are also worthy of attention; innovative devices have the same logic as chips, and the direction of domestic substitution has just begun, so you can pay attention For some industries and companies with low penetration rate, relatively high moat, and less fierce competition, as well as companies with high technology content, it is difficult to make a breakthrough from zero to one in R&D, but once a breakthrough is made, the life cycle of such products will be longer. long. Post-epidemic recovery, the first benefit is offline, such as retail pharmacies; secondly, delayed gratification related to consumption scenarios, such as medical aesthetics, myopia surgery, vaccination, growth hormone injection, etc. After the epidemic is released, demand may recover; It is a raw material medicine and a proprietary Chinese medicine. The cost of upstream raw materials is high and will gradually decline in the future. This is also the direction of my current composition configuration.
Broker China reporter: Do you pay special attention to retail pharmacies?
Wan Minyuan: There is a high probability that retail pharmacies will be better in the future. One is post-epidemic restoration. I bought a pharmaceutical retail company near the Yunnan border. In the past three years, 10% of the stores were closed every day. Now the 10% All of them have been opened; secondly, retail pharmacies have a long-term logic. The core of the medical reform is the separation of medicines. In comparison with overseas markets, pharmacies are the mainstream. The third is that the concentration of the industry has increased. The concentration of pharmacies in China is very low. The two large chain drugstores in Europe and the United States have a market share of 60%-70%. The concentration of pharmaceutical retail in China will continue to increase. Fourth, pharmacies will not only sell drugs , and can also sell daily consumer goods such as cosmetics. From these perspectives, pharmacies still have a lot of room for growth.
Editor in charge: Tactical Heng
Proofreading: Su Huanwen
millions of users are watching
Shocked the financial circle! The former chairman of the state-owned insurance company lost contact and has been in the insurance industry for 38 years! It has been rumored for more than a month, what is the truth?
Burst! A passenger plane crashed in Nepal! Turkish Ministry of Defense: 506 Kurdish militants have been killed! London shootings put Biden in crisis again
Top 10 news that affect the market this week over the weekend (new stocks + comments)
Moutai’s “low-key” soared by 40%! State-owned listed companies usher in a new life? The assessment index has just been changed, and it is still Buffett’s “favorite”. What do you smell?
Rare in a hundred years! The central bank suffered a huge loss of 970 billion yuan. What happened to this country? India made a big move to snatch the Apple industry chain? The crisis in Japan
本话题在雪球有0条讨论，点击查看。
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
本文转自： http://xueqiu.com/1184824257/240117774
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.