Semiconductor funds rebounded 15% in a week, will the rally continue?

Last week, Cai Songsong’s $Nuoan Growth Mix (F320007)$ rose by 13% , and Zheng Weishan’s $Galaxy Innovation Mix (F519674)$ rose by 15% !

Semiconductor rising logic

This rise in semiconductors is mainly due to the influence of geopolitical events, and the core growth logic is domestic substitution . In fact, over the past few years, the term domestic substitution has always appeared in the analysis of semiconductor investment prospects, but it has been further strengthened by recent geopolitical events, especially the beautiful country has also been proposing to form a “chip Quartet Alliance” In an attempt to curb the development of China’s semiconductors, this event further enhances the urgency of domestic substitution !

Take a look at semiconductor cyclical:

From the perspective of semiconductor industry sales, the current semiconductor cycle peaked in August 2021, and is currently entering a downward cycle, and it has not bottomed out. Judging from the duration of the first two rounds of the semiconductor industry downward cycle (January 2018-June 2019, April 2014-May 2016), the duration of the downward cycle is about 1.5-2 years.

It is expected that the bottoming time of this round of semiconductor downward cycle will be in the first half of 2023 .

” Semiconductor equipment” sales usually lead by 1-2 quarters based on previous experience. According to this estimate, the inflection point of semiconductor equipment is expected to come early by the end of 2022!

Let’s talk about the third generation of semiconductors!

So after talking about the reasons for the recent surge in the semiconductor sector, I would like to talk to you about ” third-generation semiconductors “.

The development of third-generation semiconductors is closely related to the development of new energy vehicles, so before introducing the third-generation semiconductors, let’s talk about new energy vehicles.

First of all, new energy vehicles have driven the explosion of power semiconductors .

The so-called power semiconductor is the core of “electric energy conversion” and “circuit control” in electronic devices. Whenever current and voltage control is involved in electronic equipment, power semiconductors must be used. Especially in new energy vehicles, there are a lot of links that need to convert voltage, so the amount of power semiconductors has increased significantly.

As a key link to achieve carbon neutrality, it is foreseeable that in the short term, the popularity of new energy vehicles will continue to rise, so the high prosperity of power semiconductors will also continue to be maintained. The outbreak of power semiconductors has provided a good soil for the development of my country’s third-generation semiconductors.

So what exactly is a third-generation semiconductor? The third generation of semiconductors refers to “wide bandgap” semiconductors . The so-called “gap band” can be simply understood as the ability of semiconductor materials to maintain stability. The wider the band gap, the more it can withstand the impact of external energy, that is to say, the more it can withstand: high temperature, high voltage, and high current . The most mature material in the third generation of semiconductors is silicon carbide .

It is estimated that after changing the power components in the inverter of pure electric vehicles to silicon carbide devices, the power consumption of the whole vehicle can be reduced by 5% to 10%, which helps to increase the battery life.

However, in 2021, only 400,000 to 600,000 silicon carbide wafers will be produced globally. Combined with a yield rate of about 50%, the effective production capacity is only 200,000 to 300,000. This is not even enough to meet the needs of a car company. This means that market competition is still at an early stage.

For China’s semiconductor industry, this fertile soil provides us with a good opportunity to catch up with the world’s advanced level. First of all, because most power semiconductor usage scenarios, such as automobiles, 5G base stations, etc., are not as expensive as mobile phones and computers, the demand for advanced manufacturing processes is not so high, which avoids the current weak areas of the domestic semiconductor industry. .

Secondly, in China, although leading companies have just started mass production of 6-inch substrates, although they are lagging behind in commercialization, in terms of technology, the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences also successfully prepared 8-inch silicon carbide crystals a few months ago. , make up the gap.

In general, with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market represented by China, it will further drive the rapid rise of a large number of semiconductor products represented by silicon carbide power semiconductors. Go to the next floor!

@雪ball Fund @Today’s topic @雪ball creator center #chip industry chain outbreak across the board# $Semiconductor(CSIH30184)$

This topic has 5 discussions in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>

This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/8687456694/227397963
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.