Silicon wafers and silicon materials are currently in a game. In this regard, I would like to share a few views:
1. In the past two years, due to the emergence of too many new players and new production capacity, the competitive landscape in the silicon wafer sector has deteriorated, and the pricing power is being lost rapidly. The underlying logic is broken. I have said this many times in the past. Even if silicon materials plummet, there will still be a surplus of silicon wafers, and the price war will still be fierce. If a large number of players do not die, Silicon will not have a peaceful life. This is silicon wafer’s own housework, which has nothing to do with the upstream and downstream.
2. The price of silicon materials cannot be always high, but its decline is not determined by silicon wafers. This is exactly what Longfan and Huanfan are not convinced. They are looking forward to the decline of silicon materials, but in fact they are looking forward to the pricing power of silicon wafers. Recently, some old people said that Longhuan’s price reduction is to force the price of silicon materials to drop. Hehe, this kind of mentality is actually the pricing power of silicon wafers, and they still have illusions—”Look, people still listen to my silicon wafers, right? ?”
3. If the demand for components declines, silicon materials will definitely fall. However, this has nothing to do with silicon!
4. Longhuan’s biggest bargaining chip at present is that the capabilities of new players in silicon wafers have not been fully verified. As a result, the battery side dare not hand over orders to small silicon wafers. Delivery, the loss of the battery side is not a little bit. But this verification process cannot be dragged on forever, it will definitely be completed. At this stage, the verification has almost been completed, and Longhuan’s bargaining chip will become invalid at any time.
5. I predicted yesterday that after a few days of stalemate, some second- and third-tier silicon wafers will announce that they have received a large number of orders for silicon wafers. This is a typical manifestation of the failure of Longhuan’s chips, which means that those old silicon wafers have permanently lost their pricing power.
6. In the past two years, the global demand for components has been too tight. It is very normal for the demand to fluctuate in the future. If the demand for components decreases, leading to price cuts for silicon materials, this is actually not a bad thing for Tongwei and others. It is helpful for silicon materials to optimize the competitive landscape and get rid of some small players.
7. The essential difference between silicon materials and silicon wafers is that new players are constantly pouring into silicon wafers, while new players of silicon materials tend to be absent. At present, only old silicon materials such as Tongwei Daquan can be expanded, and most of the other new players are still PPT. Qinghai Lihao, a new player with super luxury and top equipment, is likely to be the second Eastern Hope according to its current progress.
$LONGi Green Energy(SH601012)$
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