gist
The global proportion of manganese used in batteries is expected to rise from 2.1% in 2020 to 4.9% in 2030. In 2020, 97% of the global manganese ore consumption (88% for manganese alloys, 8.3% for metal manganese, and 0.2% for high-purity manganese alloys) will be used in the steel industry, while batteries account for only 2.1% (electrolytic manganese dioxide 1.7%, high-purity sulfuric acid) manganese 0.3%). According to Yang Yufang et al. “Analysis of the Status Quo and Development Trend of the Global Manganese Ore Industry”, assuming other demands remain unchanged, the proportion of manganese used in batteries is expected to increase from 2.1% in 2020 to 4.9% in 2030, while manganese required for steel production still occupies the leading position.
In 2021, the output and reserves of manganese resources in China will only rank fourth in the world, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries will be as high as 78.4%. According to USGS data, the global manganese resources are mainly concentrated in South Africa, Australia and Gabon, and the corresponding production and reserves account for 71.5% and 64.7% of the total, while China’s production and reserves only account for 6.5% and 3.6% of the world’s. At the same time, the domestic manganese ore resource endowment is not good, the development and utilization are difficult, and it still needs to be imported. According to our calculations, my country’s foreign dependence on manganese resources will be as high as 78.4% in 2021.
Demand: New manganese-based cathode materials and sodium batteries are expected to contribute to the secondary growth of battery manganese demand. In addition to the existing lithium manganate and nickel cobalt lithium manganate systems, the new battery cathode materials will also help the secondary growth of battery manganese demand: lithium manganese iron phosphate has a higher voltage platform, which is more energy efficient than the existing lithium iron phosphate system. Density increases by 15-20%; sodium-ion batteries have significant material cost advantages, and either layered oxides or Prussian systems are expected to drive manganese demand. According to our calculations, the domestic demand for manganese for batteries in 2025 will reach 890,800 tons (manganese dioxide equivalent), an increase of 3.8 times compared with 2021, of which the demand for lithium iron manganese phosphate and sodium batteries account for 8.7% and 7.0% respectively.
Supply: Policy, environmental protection and high energy consumption still limit the expansion of the manganese industry. Taking manganese dioxide as an example, according to the “Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2019 Edition)” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, new electrolytic manganese dioxide belongs to the restricted category. For restricted projects, new construction is prohibited, and the existing production capacity is allowed to be Renovation and upgrading within a certain period of time; it can be found from the EIA report that strict requirements have been made on the terrestrial ecology and surface water environment. Therefore, we expect that manganese for batteries will still be in a tight supply state. As of September 30, 2022, the price of manganese dioxide is 17,000 yuan / ton, up 28.8% from the beginning of the year.
There are many options for manganese sources, and manganese tetroxide is expected to become one of the future development directions. According to various patent public information, the manganese source of sodium battery or lithium iron manganese phosphate includes manganese dioxide, manganese sulfate, manganese tetroxide, manganese carbonate and other options. Among them, manganese tetroxide has the same structure as lithium manganate, both of which are spinel structures. The structural change in the process of preparing lithium manganate by using it as the manganese source is relatively small, the internal stress changes caused by it are smaller, and the material structure is more stable. According to the relevant literature, the use of battery grade manganese tetroxide instead of manganese dioxide has good battery product safety, excellent low temperature discharge function, high discharge capacity, large cycle times and ideal performance.
The development of manganese-based batteries has fully benefited upstream manganese source manufacturers. Representative domestic manganese sources include Sinosteel Tianyuan, Xiangtan Electrochemical and Red Star Development. In 2021, Sinosteel Tianyuan will have a production capacity of 55,000 tons of manganese tetroxide (including 50,000 tons of electronic-grade manganese tetroxide and 5,000 tons of battery-grade manganese tetroxide), with a market share of about 50% of the production capacity. In 2021, Xiangtan Electrochemical will have an annual production capacity of 122,000 tons of electrolytic manganese dioxide, and the market share of production capacity will reach 25-30%. In 2021, Red Star will develop an electrolytic manganese dioxide production capacity of 30,000 tons per year.
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