$BYD (SZ002594)$ At the end of September, it was specially analyzed that Tesla’s price reduction had little impact on BYD, and will not repeat it. This time, it is mainly the impact of the withdrawal of subsidies.
I predicted the sales a long time ago. At that time, no one believed it. Today, everyone agrees. The sales in the future will only be more awesome.
There are many people who are worried about profits, especially there are many big Vs. Bricks are straightforward, and I also admire their eloquence and courage.
The subsidy withdrawal is divided into two parts, the hybrid is 4800 yuan, and the pure electricity is mainly 12600 yuan. Can car companies make up for this amount? Can the price increase be passed on to consumers?
The first problem is that BYD can reduce costs by 3-5 points on a scale, that is to say, the hybrid can completely make up for it, and pure electricity can make up for half. It is basically impossible for other car companies to reduce costs, and there is no way to scale and supply chains.
The second question is that the price increase is bound to increase, and no one dares to increase it easily. Competition is fierce, and Tesla has to cut prices to keep sales. If you don’t increase the price, you will lose more. Some car companies can’t even cover the BOM cost. That is, everyone is afraid to raise prices first, and it is likely that they will not start to rise until January or February as at the beginning of this year.
As at the beginning of the year, it is very unfair for BYD, because BYD has millions of orders, and it will take 3-4 months to digest the previous orders after the price increase, which means that at least the first quarter is hard to resist. .
Then why do you say it has little effect? First of all, more than half of BYD’s models are hybrid models, so the scale reduction is enough, and it has no impact. The pure electric models mainly affect the profit of the models below 200,000, Dolphin, Yuan, Qin and Song, and more than 200,000 Han, Tang and Seal, which means that it will affect the profit of 20% of the models at most.
BYD can’t take the first shot of the price increase, don’t ask me why, BYD moved too many people’s cheese, it will be sprayed to death, and it must be the responsibility of big companies.
On the other hand, BYD can not increase the price. Through the iteration of the model, the price will be increased in disguised form. We know that most of the pure electric models have not yet switched to the 3.0 platform. First of all, Qin Song will definitely change it. It is said that the dolphins are starting to change. Give a better configuration, longer battery life, and a 10,000-20,000 increase is very good.
That’s my whole point.
Maintain 15 billion this year and 45 billion profit next year.
This topic has 18 discussions in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/1220998579/232593375
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.