Rational thinking and independent thinking seem to be very simple, but it is difficult for stock marketers to do it. Most of them are position-determined and their views lose objectivity and impartiality, which will harm others and themselves, and they will not listen to different opinions.
Accurate investment should be optimistic about buying after independent thinking, firm holding after the logic is verified, and timely reflection and correction if it is wrong. The latter is the real test of investment level. Those whose butts decide their heads, and after holding them, desperately look for all kinds of benefits without listening to different opinions, once they are wrong, they will be doomed forever, because there is no error correction mechanism and they are often trapped to death.
The above words are for self-protection. If you happen to hold something in an industry that I am not very optimistic about, please communicate rationally and don’t spray me.
Real estate and its industrial chain. In the long run, there is no value for investment at all. In the short term, there may still be speculation if policies stimulate the hype of grapefruit, but in the long run, this is an industry that is fundamentally broken, and an industry that has a general trend of decline for many years to come. Do not invest in it. Against industry trends. If you insist on looking for an opportunity, then after the industry is completely cleaned up, the leading companies that survive may have the opportunity to concentrate on the leader.
The real estate industry chain involves too much, including steel and cement and other cyclical industries, as well as home improvement doors and windows and even TV air conditioners. Let’s just talk about air conditioners. He is actually very closely related to the real estate industry, so don’t think that Gree has fallen too much. The valuation of pe is quite cheap, but the pressure on future performance will be great, and it may become more expensive. I’m not very familiar with it. This is viewed from a big logic perspective. There is a problem on the demand side.
The real estate industry chains mentioned above are easy to understand. If you think about it further, the income of local governments will be seriously affected in the real estate downturn cycle. They may also have to tighten their belts to live, so those To G businesses account for Companies that are too large should pay attention. Think about the volume purchases of the pharmaceutical industry after medical insurance runs out of money. Let’s see if the companies in your hands have a large proportion of to G business, such as Hikvision and Dahua in the security field. This is by no means alarmist, and it will be verified in the long days to come.
It may be a bit fantasy to reason further, and the real estate decline cycle may have a day like that of liquor. First, there are fewer real estate business banquets (this can be said for all sluggish industries, so it’s not the point) Second, the local government’s fiscal revenue has dropped sharply, and the accumulation of trousers and belts has led to the reduction of staff and the possibility of anti-corruption and anti-corruption policies. Remember the root cause of the liquor crisis in 2013?
Now that we talk about liquor again, the above two are not the most important. The medium-term logic of liquor is that the industry is already in the decline cycle of destocking. This cycle may be very long, and it is estimated that it is at least two or three years. On the demand side, the economic downturn will affect the consumption of business banquets. If there is no money in the local area, it will cut costs and even introduce a 13-year policy against eating and drinking extravagantly. Although the latter is only possible, once it occurs, it will be fatal.
Finally, let’s talk about pork. I am very concerned about the pig cycle, because when the next economic cycle comes, I plan to actively participate.
At the beginning of April, when pig stocks were the strongest, I said that it was just speculation and expected a rebound. At that time, I specially wrote an article “How Difficult for Pig Stocks to Reverse”. At that time, the price of live pigs kept hitting new lows, but the stocks kept rising. Now, the prices of live pigs have risen but the stocks have fallen a lot. This shows that it is a game of expectations. There are still many people who have seen the price of live pigs rising continuously, and they have started to shout that they have reversed, and they have written thousands of words eloquently. Cyclical stocks just look at supply and demand, is there a fundamental growth on the demand side? Has the supply side been completely cleared?
The inventory of breeding sows is less than 30 million at the lowest point in 19 years, and it is still close to 42 million. On this point, it is useless to talk about other hype. If it does not drop below 35 million, don’t talk about any reversal. . Not to mention the four-year cycle of the pig cycle. This time the boom cycle is probably unprecedented, so there is a high probability that the time will be extended, maybe five years or more.
As for why the price of live pigs has risen so much recently, it may be related to rising costs or poor supply channels. There are many reasons for the increase in hog prices, and it does not mean that the reversal has begun. The current rise will just prolong the destocking cycle, which is why the stock price moves in the opposite direction. Take it slow, I am also paying attention to the reversal of the pig cycle, it is estimated that it will be next year and the year after.
There are 19 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/2299425930/220750583
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.