In my July article “Let’s Talk About Haikong Again: After Blowing Out the Crazy Sand to Gold”, I wrote, “I hope that the price of Haikong will not go up before the dividend of Haikong H is paid.” At the end of July After the Haikong H dividend was received, I immediately distributed the dividend and invested to continue to buy Haikong.
In my article “August 2022 Summary” at the beginning of this month, I once again stated my attitude towards Haikong’s price. “At present, I also hope that Haikong’s price will not rise before the dividends reported by Haikong are paid into the account.” At present, I am looking forward to waiting for Haikong’s interim dividend to arrive, and then I will continue to buy after the dividend is reported.
This is my consistent view and attitude towards investment: the more sluggish a company’s stock price is, the more favorable it will be for long-term investors who are optimistic about it.
So, in fact, for the share price of Haikong, I not only do not want it to rise, I hope it will fall! Therefore, I am happy to see the recent drop in Haikong’s share price. However, the recent drop in the share price of Haikou has had some impact on the mentality of my family’s leaders. So, I calculated an account for the leaders of my family to show that the drop in the share price of Hai Holdings is not terrible, but a good thing. as follows:
Take the principal of 120,000 yuan and buy 10,000 shares of Haikong at 12 yuan per share as an example.
In the 2022 mid-year report, a dividend of 2 yuan per share will be distributed, and the ex-rights price of Haikong will be 10 yuan. The dividend of 20,000 yuan can buy 2,000 shares, and hold 12,000 shares of Haikong, with a dividend rate of 16.66%.
In the 2022 annual report, a dividend of 2 yuan per share will be distributed, and the ex-rights price of Haikong Holdings will be 8 yuan. The dividend of 24,000 yuan can buy 3,000 shares, and 15,000 shares of Haikong will be held, with a dividend rate of 20%.
In the 2023 annual report, a dividend of 2 yuan per share will be distributed, and the ex-rights price of Haikong will be 6 yuan. The dividend of 30,000 yuan can buy 5,000 shares, and if you hold 20,000 shares of Haikong, the dividend rate is 25%.
In the 2024 annual report, a dividend of 2 yuan per share will be distributed, and the ex-rights price of Haikong Holdings will be 4 yuan. The dividend of 40,000 yuan can buy 10,000 shares, and hold 30,000 shares of Haikong, with a dividend rate of 33.33%.
In the 2025 annual report, a dividend of 2 yuan per share will be distributed, and the ex-rights price of Haikong will be 2 yuan. The dividend of 60,000 yuan can buy 30,000 shares, and 60,000 shares of Haikong will be held, with a dividend rate of 50%.
………….
There are several assumptions in the above calculation:
Assumption 1: Although Haikong fluctuates up and down, it will not rise or fall in a year;
Assumption 2: Haikong dividends will not be filled after ex-rights;
Assumption 3: Haikong distributes 2 yuan in dividends every year.
Assumptions 1 and 2 are exactly what they say “not only do we hope that the stock price will not rise, but also hope that the stock price will fall”. The above calculation, if the sea holding price not only does not rise, but also falls, then the dividends will be invested and more shares will be bought. Of course, assumption 3 is the most critical.
At present, it is known that Haikong will make a profit of 89.2 billion yuan in 2021, a profit of 64.7 billion yuan in the interim report in 2022, and a profit of 12 billion yuan in July. It is estimated that the total profit in 2021 and 2022 will be 200 billion yuan. The total share capital of Haikong is 16.1 billion shares, and the dividend per share is 2 yuan. It will be divided into 32.2 billion yuan a year. The 200 billion profit earned in these two years can support the annual distribution of 2 yuan per share for 6 years and the annual report in 2026.
Don’t come and argue with me whether or not Haikong can and will distribute a dividend of 2 yuan per share every year until 2026. At present, the stock price of Haikong has shown that the market’s valuation and pricing of Haikong has already expected that Haikong will lose a profit in the next quarter and a huge loss next year. Of course the bullish sailors don’t think so. However, I will not talk about the fundamentals of container shipping and Haikong today. Anyway, Haikong has been extremely popular and controversial in the past two years. What I have seen is that the bullish articles published by excellent sailors have data and logic, and the bearish ones often only have one sentence “strong cycle”. However, this sentence of “strong cycle” is worth ten thousand sentences. The continuous decline of Haikong’s stock price since its peak in July last year seems to confirm that bears “cycle stocks should be sold at low PE and bought at high PE.” , seems to confirm the “market is right” view.
However, I don’t think “the market is right” is the same as “the market is always right” or “the market is always right”. Otherwise, I would not have held Gree for ten years since 2009 and earned ten times the income in the market that “the scale of the air-conditioning industry has reached the ceiling.” Young people don’t drink liquor anymore”, and they reap 6 times profit after buying Maotai.
Although the container shipping industry has indeed experienced a downturn for many years, it has been in a high degree of prosperity in the past two years, showing the characteristics of a strong cyclical industry. However, I do not agree with the argument that the current consolidation is still a strong cycle. Times are changing, and things cannot be generalized; they all have to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. All I know is:
In 2016, after the main business was restructured and transformed into container shipping, Haikong has not lost any more;
After going through extreme stress tests such as the Sino-US trade war in 2018 and the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, Haikong has not lost any money;
With the accumulation of more and more cash in Haikong’s account, after announcing an annual dividend of 0.87 yuan per share in 2021, the 2022 mid-year report announced a further dividend of 2.01 yuan per share.
Therefore, I would like to say to the sailors who are still sticking to the giant ship of Haikong, if you are optimistic about the future development prospects of Haikong, if you believe that Haikong is not earning fake money, if you believe that the central enterprise pays dividends Continuity, then please take a serious look at my simple reckoning, and understand that the decline in Haikong’s price is actually raising the income of investors who hold Haikong for a long time and reinvest with dividends. Let’s watch the price of Haikong drop.
After calculating this account, I calculated another account for the leaders of my family: including the dividends in the 2021 annual report and the dividends in the 2022 interim report, the interest received by Hai Holdings this year will be worth the salary income of my husband and wife for many years. ; If you sell Haikong and diversify your investment because you are worried about the stock price falling, how many times the market value needs to rise in order to receive the same amount of dividends this year at a dividend rate of 5%.
For a family like my family that needs to allocate equity assets for a long time, an investment opportunity like Haikong can be described as an extremely rare and rare occurrence in my more than 20 years of stock market career. After the accounts were settled, the mentality of my family leaders was much better.
Of course, the premise of a company’s falling stock price and still achieving good investment returns is to look at the fundamentals of the company and to continue to pay dividends to return shareholders. Otherwise, investors will not end well. The so-called: you want its interest, it wants your capital. Especially when there is reflexivity, as the stock price falls, the fundamentals of the company get worse and worse, from profit to loss, and even eventually insolvent and on the verge of bankruptcy. In this regard, I have learned a profound lesson in my previous real estate investment.
Finally, let me state that the above is only my personal opinion. I never thought that my views were infallible, but I was always ready to admit that I was wrong. Because, I have always believed that the volatility of stock prices is not a risk, and the deterioration of the fundamentals of the company is the real risk; what is scary is not the fall of the stock price, but the misunderstanding of the fundamentals of the company!
If I realize I’m wrong, I’m going to pay for it and leave. However, it is not wrong, not to look at the stock price, but to look at the fundamentals of the company! Finally, it is the same sentence: investment is the realization of cognition, self-determination, risk, and self-financing.
What determines the upper limit of value is the pattern!
The Yellow River falls into the sky and goes to the East China Sea, and thousands of miles are written into my heart.
Saturday, September 24, 2022
$COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(SH601919)$ $COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(01919)$
There are 93 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/1551146876/231478235
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.