Continue to talk about the comparison between semiconductors and new energy. Can semiconductors really replace new energy? After my hard work on the subway yesterday and this morning, I think this impossibility adds another layer.
First of all, I am not an afterthought, the last two posts illustrate the same point. Chip I also lurked in before launching last week and earned 10 points:
A lot of people forget the economic context we’re in right now
The market has basically been in a bull market for the past three months, and the market is boiling hot. This has caused many people to forget that we are still under the background of stable growth and economic protection, and the pressure is not small. During this period of time, it is the policy-led direction to use all means to stimulate the economy.
At the same time, the stabilization of U.S. stocks has caused many people not to notice that the inversion of U.S. bond yields has deepened, indicating that the probability of an economic recession in the United States has increased, so our pressure has increased.
So, what can drive the economy?
Only new energy can drive the economy, and chips are money-burning research
New energy is the main way to make money with mature technology at this stage. The chip is still in the neck stage, and it still needs a lot of research and development funds and policy support to conduct research. The former is for money, the latter is for money. It is clear at a glance who is effective in stimulating the economy.
I give a few examples.
1. The first stage of the hype for steady growth is old infrastructure. At that time, I saw the stock of Conch Cement. Conch Cement mainly produces cement, a building material, to build houses. Because the upstream raw material of cement is coal power generation, it will emit a lot of carbon dioxide, and the price of coal is unstable, which has a huge impact on the cost of cement produced by Conch. Combining these two points, the company has launched a photovoltaic power generation project with the aim of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and getting rid of the bottleneck of coal prices, which shows that photovoltaic power generation new energy can really make money.
2. Baosteel Co., Ltd. is a traditional iron and steel enterprise. It has strengthened the production of special steel materials required by new energy vehicles compared with traditional fuel vehicles, bringing the company a second growth curve. These are all examples of new energy demand and profitability.
Why do I mention these two companies? One is that they are well-known, and the other is that they are all included in the concept of carbon neutrality, although in the impression they are all traditional industries and have nothing to do with carbon neutrality and new energy.
3. On the news level, the export of photovoltaic modules hit a new high. The troika driving GDP: consumption, fixed asset investment and exports. We analyze these three points.
The first is the decline in consumer preference due to the spread of ( ) in various places, such as Shanghai and more recently Hainan. The consumption recovery I mentioned yesterday is a long-term, 1-2 year recovery. Not to recover immediately tomorrow. Moreover, this sector of consumption is suitable for long-term fixed investment and holding, and is not suitable for short-term speculation. In addition, my article yesterday also implied an assumption that it is expected that policies will be introduced to save consumption, such as the issuance of consumer coupons. In this case, the ability to drive consumption can only be considered moderate. The upside is that there are supportive expectations, the downside is that preferences have fallen.
Second, everyone knows about real estate. The latest conference no longer emphasizes the goal of 5.5, and infrastructure will not be carried out as wildly as before. Therefore, this one is directly excluded.
Then there is only the third one, which is exported. Forget the chip export, now only the neck. That is, new energy, the world’s leading technology, can be exported.
Medical care is also money-burning research, but not the same as chips
Smart readers have found out: don’t you blow medicine every day? Shouldn’t the research and development of innovative drugs burn money? Then why do you push medicine?
Because the valuation of medicine is so much lower than that of chips, the adjustment time is three times that of chips. The modulation rate is also nearly double that of the chips, and the different positions cause them to have completely different risks.
Moreover, the aging of the population and the upgrading of medical consumption in medicine is a long-term logic and a slow cow. It lacks news and stimulation, and cannot rush forward like new energy. But over time, he always oscillated upwards and made new highs.
Moreover, medicine also has consumption attributes, which are more similar to consumption. Consumption drives GDP, and medicine can also benefit.
I personally think that the certainty of medicine is stronger, and I am worried about the uncertainty of chip development, but I am very confident to take medicine when I am older. After Japan has experienced centralized pharmaceutical procurement, pharmaceutical companies have resumed profitability after a ten-year pain period, and during this period, pharmaceuticals outperformed the Japanese market index. I am also very confident.
Is the valuation of new energy really outrageous?
The valuations of leaders in new energy, such as CATL and BYD, are outrageous, but the entire new energy sector, the corresponding new energy ETF, is currently valued at a price-earnings ratio of 35 times, which is still at a moderately low valuation:
The valuation of CSI 300 is 12 times, and the percentile is 30%. On the Growth Enterprise Market, where the new energy is located, the valuation of the Growth Enterprise Market 50 Index is 46.37 times, and the percentile is 32.34%. Therefore, we can summarize the following objective facts :
1. The valuation of new energy (35) is lower than that of ChiNext (46).
2. Compared with the broader market (CSI 300, GEM 50), there is no significant premium for new energy.
3. The current valuation of the new energy sector is in the lower middle percentile.
To emphasize, this is an objective number, not something I just made up. I am talking about the new energy sector. CATL and BYD are definitely overvalued.
Compared with medical medicine and Hong Kong stocks, the valuation of new energy is definitely much higher , but it is not as outrageous as everyone thinks. Therefore, undervalued fixed votes are selected for pharmaceuticals and Hong Kong stocks, and trend transactions are selected for new energy.
In order to lower the valuation, the valuation of the carbon neutral ETF will be lower, as I just mentioned, Conch Cement and Baosteel are both in the carbon neutral ETF, which leads to the price-earnings ratio of the carbon neutral ETF ring exchange. Less than 30 times, the percentile is also lower middle.
in conclusion
In the current stage of steady growth, new energy and consumer medicine play a greater role in stabilizing the economic market than chips, so new energy will still be the main line of the market.
But if the steady growth is successful, and there is money, then the research and development of chips will naturally accelerate.
That said, chips are a good thing, but not for now. After the steady growth is successful, there will naturally be opportunities for performance.
This is what I thought when I was bored and dazed on the subway.
I may not be right. Discussions are welcome. I wrote it secretly when I was fishing in the afternoon. It is inevitable that there will be some omissions.
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