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The end of January is the deadline for the disclosure of annual performance forecasts of listed companies. This year, a total of 2,649 companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have disclosed, of which 1,057 have pre-announcements, and the anti-announcement rate is only 39.9%.
What is the concept of 39.9%? I listed the data for the last 6 years. Before the epidemic in 2017-2019, the pre-happy rate was above 60%, and the highest was 73.7%. In 2020 and 2021, affected by the epidemic, the pre-happy rate decreased, but it was still 50%. many:
(Data source: wind)
Let me first explain what is pre-happy. Exchanges have mandatory disclosure requirements for performance forecasts. The specific rules are a bit complicated, and each board is not the same. Let’s simplify and summarize. If one of the following situations occurs in the annual performance, a forecast must be made before the end of January:
1. The net profit is negative;
2. Net profit turned from loss to profit;
3. It is profitable and its net profit has increased by more than 50% year-on-year;
4. Negative net assets (not required by the Science and Technology Innovation Board);
5. The lower of net profit before and after deduction is negative and the operating income is less than 100 million yuan (not required for ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board).
Companies that do not fall within the scope of mandatory disclosure are also encouraged to voluntarily disclose performance forecasts.
The disclosed notices can be divided into eight types, of which the first four, pre-increase, slight increase, turnaround, and continued profit, are collectively referred to as pre-happiness:
Most listed companies like to announce good news rather than bad news, rushing to issue notices when their performance is growing well. In 2017, 72% of the companies issued notices, of which 73.7% were pre-happy announcements; , this year only 54% of companies issued notices.
But because there are mandatory disclosure rules, such as advance reduction, first loss, and continued loss, they must be issued before the end of January, and there is no escape. Many companies can procrastinate and wait for the last day to issue, so 30 In the evening, a bunch of not-so-good-looking trailers were concentrated.
Some readers asked if the performance forecast is relatively weak, will it affect the market outlook?
The content of the forecast is the annual performance, but for the market, the first three quarters are known information, and the new information is only the fourth quarter. I made another statistic. In the first three quarters of last year, the proportion of listed companies with expected growth, slight growth, and loss was 44.5%. According to the annual forecast, this proportion dropped to 38.9%, which shows that the performance of listed companies in the fourth quarter is still getting worse. , it may be that the fourth quarter itself has greater operating pressure, or it may be that various impairments have exploded in the fourth quarter.
However, what the market trades is expectations. When the results of the fourth quarter did not come out, the market continued to price based on various information. Up to now, the situation has been basically reflected in the stock price. After the sky falls, it is also reflected that it is almost inseparable.
Therefore, the performance that has been disclosed will not determine the stock price trend in the future. The rebound of A-shares some time ago is itself an expectation that the market has already recovered in the first quarter of trading. What determines the future trend will only be the market’s game on the degree of future recovery. Only by making correct predictions ahead of the market can it be possible to obtain excess returns, but this is very difficult.
For most of us, a better way is to pay attention to where the market has gone. No matter if the future is unpredictable, the current position can always be roughly captured. Buy when it is low, and sell when it is high. suffer.
Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The investment advisory institution does not guarantee the certain profitability and minimum return of the above fund investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification.
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