The Chinese economy is in the process of historic changes. With 2022 (as a complete year) starting the “new journey” to realize the country’s second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, China’s economy has entered a new stage of development. In contemporary China, the economy in a complete sense includes three major systems: economic development, economic reform, and economic opening. In line with the new development stage, China’s economy is bound to appear three major trends, namely: the development trend of the people’s wealth-oriented economic development system, the factor-oriented reform trend of the economic reform system, and the institutional opening trend of the economic opening system. Professor Chang Xiuze summed up his research on these three trends as “Three Trends in China’s Economy”. The following is the introductory part of Professor Chang’s new book “The Three Trends of China’s Economy”.
The three-type trend of China’s economy is undoubtedly a prominent feature of China’s economy entering a new stage of development, but from a broader perspective, it has a deeper background.
In recent years, a judgmental aphorism of “great changes unseen in a century” has been widely spread. Five years ago, the author had a little understanding of this. In 2017, in my book “Three Trends in the World and China’s Mixed Ownership Economy – A Correlation Study Based on a Global Perspective”,[1] I discussed China’s development from a global perspective. Reformation background. In the past five years, the world pattern has undergone a greater change “unseen in a century”. The three major trends mentioned above have also shown many new characteristics, and the game between the three major trends has become more intense.
(1) The global “revolutionary trend of new technologies” and its game with certain “scientific and technological barriers”
First of all, it is necessary to explain: science, technology, and industry are three related but distinct concepts. The three are not only in the same line, but also progressive in layers (usually along the chain from science to technology to industry) . It can be seen from the respective development history of modern human science, technology and industry: Four scientific revolutions: Newtonian mechanics (18th century) – Electromagnetic mechanics (19th century) – Quantum mechanics (20th century) – Intelligence science (21st century) ; Four technological revolutions: steam technology (18th century) – electrical technology (19th century) – information technology (20th century) – intelligent technology (21st century); four industrial (industry) revolutions: steaming industry (18 century) – electrification industry (19th century) – information industry (20th century) – intelligent industry (21st century). [2]
Based on the above chain, the author pointed out in “The Three Major Trends of the World and China’s Mixed Ownership Economy – A Correlation Study Based on a Global Perspective”: “Since the beginning of the 21st century, the third industrial revolution known as the ‘new wave’ has been rapidly and violently Development, especially in the information revolution, the ‘pioneering force’ of human society is moving from an industrial society to an information society, including ‘cloud computing’, ‘e-world’ and other information technologies are growing at an extraordinary rate. This general trend can be summed up in five words: ‘cloud’ (cloud computing), ‘thing’ (internet of things), ‘mobile’ (mobile internet), ‘big’ (big data), and ‘intelligence’ (intelligence). “At the same time, in biotechnology, in quantum technology, there is also a revolution going on in these fields.” [3]
Since the above analysis was made in 2017, the trend of a larger global technological revolution has emerged, which has become the biggest bright spot in observing the trend of the world. In the report “Development Trend of Frontiers of Science and Technology in the World” by authoritative experts in the Chinese scientific community, they discussed the current development trend of the latest frontiers of science and technology from the macroscopic, microscopic and mesoscopic levels, namely: (1) Expanding to the macroscopic level: “In pursuit of the origin of the universe” The Footsteps of Evolution”, including black hole research-_opening new horizons on the origin of the universe and celestial bodies, etc. (2) Go deep into the micro: “exploring the ultimate mysteries of the material world and life”, including quantum regulation becoming an important frontier of current material science and information technology. (3) Meso-level: including information technology becoming the leading force for profound changes in the economy, society and life, etc. [4]
Grasping the above-mentioned authoritative summary of the scientific community, the author pays special attention to several fields directly related to the current world economic development: (1) Information technology field – a new generation of information centered on “chips” and components, computing power, and communication technology Technology is at an important breakthrough point; (2) in the field of life sciences – breakthroughs in genomics, synthetic biology, brain science, stem cells and other fields; (3) in the field of new energy – renewable energy, large-scale energy storage, Power batteries, smart grids, etc. have become important development directions; (4) The digital economy and quantum information, especially represented by “Internet +” and “Intelligence +”, are developing rapidly with their unstoppable power. The above-mentioned “not only change the pattern of economic growth, but also change various economic structures, so that the industrial structure, the factor input structure, and even the ownership structure will undergo profound and significant changes.” [5]
Speaking of this, the author can’t help but think of a famous quote by the scientist Pasteur in the history of science and technology development (1876): “I have two deep impressions, first, science has no borders, and second, it seems to be incompatible with the first. Contradictory, but it is a direct manifestation of the first point, that is, science is the highest manifestation of the personification of a country.”[6] Pasteur’s “science without borders” is global in mind and high-rise, because “knowledge belongs to human beings and is The torch that lights up the world”[7]. As for “Science is the highest personification of a country”, it is also profound and quite profound, because “this country will always be the first to spread the fruits of thought and intelligence farthest”[8]. As one of the scientists who contributed to the innovation performance “believing that he has obtained the truth, this is one of the greatest joys that human beings can enjoy” [9].
But unfortunately, in today’s world, while the “revolutionary trend of new technology” is surging in the world, the author also noticed that: contrary to “science without borders” and “science is the highest personification of a country”, there is another This phenomenon: a phenomenon of “technological barriers” similar to the “Scientific Berlin Wall”. For example, it is well known that Huawei, a private Chinese high-tech company, has suffered some kind of repression overseas. The emergence of this phenomenon is very complicated: it is not only out of consideration for the national interests or national security of the countries concerned, but also because of the “white-hot” level of international competition. However, in any case, this kind of “monopoly” a certain high The “scientific and technological barriers” that appear in the market of technological products are not conducive to the development of the “revolutionary trend of new technologies”. What is even more worrying is that in the future, as science and technology become more advanced and complex, and the cost of research and development becomes more and more expensive, will the “threshold” of world technology become higher and higher, until it becomes a “wall”? Of course, compared with the surging trend of the global “new technology revolution”, “scientific and technological barriers” are only a tributary, but the game between them is worthy of attention.
(2) The trend of “economic globalization” in the world and its game with “de-globalization”[10]
To study the problem from a global perspective, in addition to the surging trend of the global “new technology revolution” and its game with some “technical barriers”, there are also the wave of economic globalization and the challenges of “de-globalization” encountered now. game between them. The signs of this “de-globalization” did not start with US President Trump. In fact, with the outbreak of the US financial crisis and the recession of the international economy after 2009, trade protectionism has been triggered into the second decade of the 21st century. After Trump came to power, he only intensified the “de-globalization”, or added fuel to it.
At the same time, such signs are also emerging in Europe, where anti-dumping and other trade restrictive measures are frequently adopted, thus creating a protectionist trend of trade “de-globalization” (or “de-globalization”) in Europe and the United States. Will the new U.S. president change course when he takes office in 2021? “Globalization” or “De-Globalization”? The world is worth watching.
Judging from the basic trend of human civilization development, the wave of globalization (or at least “sub-globalization”) is unstoppable. Like most commentators, the author advocates that free trade should be promoted, and protectionism in disguise should not be pursued; open cooperation should be promoted, and the smooth flow of industrial and value chains should not be hindered. This is the general trend and the aspiration of the people. “The right way in the world is vicissitudes of life”.
China’s economic trend is based on the fact that “globalization is not over.” Of course, we must also pay attention to “anti-globalization” trends such as “engaging in disguised protectionism.”
(3) The rise of “humanism” in the world and its game with “populism”
From a global perspective, in addition to the above two major trends and their game, there is a new trend—the trend of human development and its game with “populism”.
In 2009, the author published a long paper in “Journal of Shanghai University. Social Sciences Edition”, “Theoretical Discussion on China’s Next 30 Years of Reform – Thinking from the Perspective of “Human-Oriented System Theory”, pointing out that China’s “the essence of reform lies in people’s The all-round development of liberation and freedom. The meaning of ‘human’ should be accurately grasped from the horizontal, vertical and core levels. The ‘human-oriented tool theory’ should be abandoned, the ‘human-oriented essence theory’ should be established, and the ‘incomplete and basic theory’ should be established. People-oriented ‘to ‘comprehensive, high-end human-oriented’ gradual improvement.” [11] Coincidentally, in 2010, the United Nations Programme and Development Programme (UNDP) also proposed that the modern economic development mode must shift from the growth of material wealth to the needs of people. The purpose of economic development is to meet and realize the development of people. [12] It should be said that this is an international consensus. Because, as early as 1983, Peru proposed that the all-round development of people should be regarded as the fundamental goal of development [13].
Humanism is a positive trend, but it is also disturbed by two trends: one is aristocracy, and the other is populism. In the book “Theory of Humanistic System”, the author once raised the issue of the game between humanism and “powerful and populist”. The sixth chapter of “Human-Oriented System Theory”, “Human-Oriented Social Institutional Arrangement”, pointed out that the reason why the book talks about “human-oriented” is that one is aimed at “the powerful” and the other is aimed at “populism”. Whether it is “powerful” or “populist”, it is unfavorable to the broad masses of the people [14].
The history of world development and the reality make people see how various vested interest groups hinder social change and human progress. People are familiar with this kind of aristocracy. Relatively speaking, the understanding of populism is relatively vague. Populism was originally a social ideological trend that emerged in Russia in the 19th century. Although they talked about “the people”, they fundamentally went against the will of the majority of the people. For example, they idealized the village community system and peasants that existed in Russia at that time, and were deeply criticized by Russian Social Democrats represented by Lenin. Since the 1980s, especially since the 1990s, populism has once again emerged in the eastern and western hemispheres, forming an international trend of thought. Humanity now faces both positive trends of humanism and negative trends of populism (or, as American scholar Joseph Nye puts it, “populist”). For example, in 2021, the “Congress is hit” in the United States, etc., is there some shadow of populism? .
Through the above analysis of the three major global trends and their games, we can see that after China entered a new stage of development, the external environment has undergone considerable changes. We have encountered complex situations that we have never encountered before, but the world The trend of new technology revolution has not stopped, the trend of economic globalization has not ended, and the trend of humanism is still the “right way of the world”. In the context of this situation, this paper studies how China implements the development of people’s wealth, factor-based reform and institutional opening.
Notes:
[1] Chang Xiuze: “Three World Trends and China’s Mixed-Ownership Economy: A Correlation Study Based on a Global Perspective”, “Reform and Strategy”, No. 8, 2017. Reprinted from People’s Forum on 2017-08-01.
[2] Quoted from the article of NetEase News: “Four scientific revolutions, technological revolutions and industrial (industry) revolutions in human history”
[3] Chang Xiuze: “Three World Trends and China’s Mixed-Ownership Economy: A Correlation Study Based on a Global Perspective”, “Reform and Strategy”, No. 8, 2017. Reprinted from People’s Forum on 2017-08-01.
[4] Quoted from Bai Chunli, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: “Development Trend of Frontier Science and Technology in the World” (December 2020, report from the Great Hall of the People)
[5] Chang Xiuze: “Three World Trends and China’s Mixed Ownership Economy: A Correlation Study Based on a Global Perspective”, “Reform and Strategy”, No. 8, 2017. Reprinted from People’s Forum on 2017-08-01.
[6] “Science without borders, scientists have a motherland” The ins and outs of the saying
[7] Ibid
[8] Ibid
[9] Ibid
[10] What is the situation of the world economy? Comprehensive academic views: Generally speaking, there are three major schools, namely the so-called “positive globalization” and “de-globalization” (“de-globalization”). Others believe that the ebb of globalization is just the globalization that made China go smoothly in the previous paragraph, and the so-called “Western globalization” that excludes China still exists; the author uses the term “sub-globalization”, that is, He believes that “globalization has not ended, but it has taken a “second” form compared with the “rapid globalization” of the previous period. Some commentators call it “slow globalization”, “weak globalization”, “new globalization” chemicalization” etc.). This issue deserves discussion.
[11] Chang Xiuze: “Theoretical Discussion on China’s Next 30 Years of Reform – Thinking from the Perspective of “Theory of Humanism”, “Journal of Shanghai University Social Science Edition”, No. 3, 2009, “Xinhua Digest”, No. 2009 3 reprints.
[12] United Nations Program and Development Program (UNDP, 2010), see Chang Xiuze: “Introduction to Innovation and National Strategy”, “Journal of Shanghai University”, No. 5, 2013.
[13] Peru: “New Concept of Development: Basic Principles”, quoted from Chang Xiuze: “Theory of Humanistic System”, China Economic Press, 2008 edition, p. 9.
[14] Chang Xiuze: “Theory of Humanistic System”, China Economic Press, 2008 edition, p. 288
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