With the announcement of Haikong’s second quarterly report, its account cash and cash equivalents have exceeded the market value, and the Hong Kong stock market has been deeply broken. It is expected to be deeply broken to 0.6PB by the end of the year. So the question is, for such companies, have similar things happened in A shares in recent years? Or is there any rule that can help the future trend of Haikong.
This article counts the relevant data of A-share listed companies whose account cash is greater than their market value since the “darkest moment” in 2018, a total of 35 companies (100% accuracy is not guaranteed, welcome to check for omissions).
The relevant financial data from 2018 to the present were analyzed separately, and some “interesting” conclusions were found. (There are too many companies, so the original data will not be posted, and the statistics of Wind or other data can be seen at a glance by pulling it online)
1. From an industry perspective, 35% are real estate companies;
2. The average asset-liability ratio is 75%, and the median is 76%; (as of 22Q1, the data of Haikong is 55%)
3. In terms of stock price performance, half of them have fallen since June 2018, with an average increase of 7%;
4. The total free cash flow in 2018 is -9.5 billion, the cumulative free cash flow from 2018 to 2021 is 232.9 billion, and the proportion of companies with an increase in free cash flow in 2021 compared with 2018 is 50%; (It is estimated that Haikong 22H1 free cash flow will exceed 200 billion )
5. The net profit of 60% of the companies in 2021 will decline compared with that in 2018. Note that it will decline again under the background of the extremely low base in 2018 ;
6. In 2018, the total net profit was 38.5 billion, and the total market value was 500 billion;
7. In the four years from 2018 to 2021, 35 companies have distributed a total of 58.8 billion in dividends, and the cumulative net profit attributable to the parent is 136.9 billion. At present, the total market value of these 35 companies is 760 billion, and the 4-year dividend volume is about 8% of the market value;
8. Since 2018, 35 companies whose cumulative net profit exceeds the company’s market value at the end of 2018 are zero, and Haikong’s cumulative net profit in 21 and 22 years will exceed its market value, if it does not rise;
Although the cash of these 35 companies is greater than the market value of the year, they are also at a low point in terms of operation, and there is no dawn in the future. Judging from the results, the market is correct. Most of the above 35 companies have not gotten out of the predicament, and some real estate companies are also facing Various crises, under the circumstance that net profit accounted for only 7% of the total market value in 2018, 60% of the company’s net profit in 2021 will decline compared to 2018. Under the current situation that Haikong’s financial indicators are very good, the market’s valuation of Haikong is similar to the 35 companies in 2018. If the market is correct, considering that Haikong has earned 150 billion in 21 and 22H1, according to the forecast The proportion of the cumulative net profit in the next 4 years to the market value of the current year can be reversed to push the future net profit of Haikong (35 companies’ cumulative net profit in 2018-21 is 136.9 billion, and the total market value in 2018 is 500 billion, accounting for about 30%). The market believes that Haikong The accumulated net profit from 21 to 24 is about 60 billion, that is, 22H2+23+24 will lose 100 billion.
In terms of total volume, Haikong’s performance in 2021 or 2022 alone is enough to beat all the above-mentioned companies. Note that it is 1V35, not 1V1. If the current Haikong is put back to the pile of market currents in 2018 Comparing companies with a ratio of less than 1, their financial situation is undoubtedly very excellent and unique. The detailed data will not be expanded here. Please wait patiently for the 22-year mid-year report data, and then correspond to the market value of Haikong. The difference in valuation” is clear at a glance.
Of course, it is too general to compare the average data of 35 companies. After I dismantled it, I found that most of the companies with good growth in the next few years were companies that gradually improved their performance. Companies whose revenue, net profit, and net assets have not improved or even declined. This is also related to the fact that none of the stocks on the list are at the peak of the cycle. It also means that in the past, no matter how strong the cycle is, the market will always Will not give you a valuation lower than the cash in the account.
Among them, there are a total of 3 companies that have doubled from 2018 to 2021, namely Jianghuai Automobile, Dongfang Electric and Jiangling Motors, without exception, all of them are plugged in the wings of new energy. Jianghuai and Jiangling are both transforming new energy vehicles. The comparative advantage of China’s manufacturing industry will shine in the era of electrification. In the future, the world’s automobile city must be in China. The domestic three-electric system is not weaker than that of foreign countries. The supply chain advantage is huge, and the material system and cost advantages are stronger than BBA. Therefore, the market gives The premium of car valuation is excusable. After all, sooner or later, there will be several new energy vehicle manufacturers in China that will replace the German, Japanese and American ones and become the world’s leading car manufacturers. As the leader of state-owned electrical units, Dongfang Electric has deployed complete sets of high-efficiency energy power equipment such as coal, water, wind, nuclear, and gas power. In recent years, the proportion of new energy business in revenue has gradually increased, and hydrogen fuel cells have also been deployed. ToG Under the business model, its revenue, gross profit, and net profit are relatively stable. If Jianghuai and Jiangling are the types of reversal of difficulties, then Dongfang Electric is more likely to be killed by mistake.
The above-mentioned companies are all companies that have encountered difficulties in operation. In contrast, now, the market is giving Haikong a sharp decline in the valuation when the boom is far from over. At this moment, I think of Yingke. Yingke is also in a state of breaking net. Its fixed assets have increased from 900 million before the epidemic in 2019 to 6 billion. From 19 to 21, the annual depreciation increase is 890 million, 130 million, and 350 million respectively. , the net profit margin and gross profit margin are even lower than the normal level before the epidemic when the supply of gloves is completely oversupplied, and as the epidemic improves, in the absence of a disruptive product revolution, the supply and demand will continue to be unbalanced in the future. The burden of depreciation after the substantial expansion of production has greatly suppressed the gross profit of its business. The market also believes that it will be difficult to achieve profitability in the future, so it has given 1pb. This is also proved in 22Q1. Before the falsification (the end of 21), the market gave about 2pb, during which Yingke also reduced its holdings. On the other hand, under the background that Haikong Holdings is a new high profit, the profit has remained at a high level for 22 years, the market does not know when it will decline, the major shareholders are increasing their holdings, and the company is still repurchasing. Section is still low.
Whether analyzing the “bankrupt stock” in 2018 or the expected unprofitable Inke (Inke is no longer profitable), the conclusion is that the current valuation of Haikong implies that the cumulative loss of 1,000 in the next 3 years 100 million, so either the market is right, and Haikong will really lose that much in the short term, or the market is wrong, and it will be corrected sooner or later. You must know that the market often priced items worth 10 yuan as 0.1 yuan, and often Items worth 0.1 yuan are priced at 10 yuan.
Seeing a passage in the group, Soros said: “The history of the world economy is a series based on falsehoods and lies. To gain wealth, the way to get rich is to recognize its falsehoods, invest in them, and then quit the game before the falsehoods are recognized by the public.” I think you can also think about it the other way around. To get rich, the way to get rich is to look for the real image, get into it before the public knows it, and then quit the game after the real image is widely known by the public.
$COSCO SHIPPING Holdings(SH601919)$
This topic has 146 discussions in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/2772596432/225254542
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.