Sina Technology News Beijing time on the morning of December 29th, according to reports, after changing the company’s name to “Meta” and promising to invest billions of dollars in the development of “Metaverse” for more than a year, Mark Zuckerberg (Mark Zuckerberg) Zuckerberg’s bet on the world of virtual reality (VR) is far from paying off.
U.S. sales of VR headsets totaled $1.1 billion this year as of early December, down 2 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest data from research firm NPD Group. By comparison, Facebook’s ad business generates a similar amount of revenue roughly every three days.
It is precisely because of the downturn in the advertising business that Zuckerberg decided to bet on the “metaverse”, that is, VR equipment and related technologies. However, data from analysis firm CCS Insight shows that so far in 2022, global shipments of VR and AR (augmented reality) devices will only be 9.6 million units, a year-on-year decline of more than 12%.
Undoubtedly, these figures cast a cloud over Meta’s future prospects. Meta shares have lost about two-thirds of their value this year. In fact, Zuckerberg has also said before that the “metaverse” is a long-term bet, and it is expected to take up to ten years to become mainstream, which may eventually bring hundreds of billions of dollars in business scale.
Of course, there are plenty of other companies besides Meta that are also betting big on virtual worlds related to work, education, fitness and sports. But so far, Meta’s 2020 “Quest 2” leads the VR market by a wide margin, with competing offerings from the likes of Valve, HP and Sony accounting for only a fraction of the market, multiple analysts said.
Sales of the Meta Quest headset have declined this year. NPD Group consumer electronics analyst Ben Arnold (Ben Arnold) said that this is mainly because Quest sales are too hot during the Christmas period in 2021 when the supply of game consoles such as Sony’s PS5 is in short supply.
According to NPD Group, sales of VR head-mounted display equipment in the United States will be about 530 million U.S. dollars in 2020, and will double in 2021. A combination of factors will lead to a decline in VR headset sales and shipments in 2022.
For starters, the Quest 2 is a few years old and, like any other consumer electronics product, has lost some of its appeal with age. While Meta released a new VR headset, the Quest Pro, this fall, the device is primarily aimed at businesses and costs $1,100 more than the Quest 2, putting off many VR enthusiasts.
This summer, Meta raised the price of Quest 2 by another $100, citing inflationary pressures. In this regard, CCS Insight analyst Leo Gebbie (Leo Gebbie) said: “This price increase is surprising, because Meta has been willing to sell this product at a lower profit margin before, trying to promote the popularity of VR, and Gain a higher market share.”
Apple in focus
CCS Insight said in its latest report that 2023 is expected to be another “low year” for the VR market, driven by a weak economy and inflation. “Consumer budgets will tighten, and discretionary items like VR headsets will likely fall victim,” said CCS Insight analyst Gerby.
Sony’s next-generation VR headset, the PlayStation VR2, will debut in February, priced at $550. NPD Group analyst Arnold said that while PlayStation VR2 will give the market a shot in the arm, it may not have as much impact on the overall VR market as Quest 2. Because Sony’s device requires users to have a PS5 as a computing power, while Quest 2 is independent of other devices.
Arnold said: “The potential users of PlayStation VR2 are the users of PlayStation game consoles.” Beyond Sony, one interesting question is whether Apple will launch a VR headset, as rumored.
Arnold believes that Apple can create a compelling VR headset with a software ecosystem to accompany it. Plus, Apple’s status as a leader in consumer technology could bring some spark to the lackluster VR market, making the technology more appealing to the general public.
CCS Insight analyst Gerby said: “If there is a company that has the ability to change the VR market overnight, it is Apple. Apple has a large and loyal fan base, many of whom are willing to invest large sums of money in technology. If Apple To launch a VR headset, we expect it to perform very well.”
Apple is reportedly building an AR-capable VR headset that could be released as early as 2023.
Eric Abbruzzese, research director at research firm ABI Research, thinks Apple could launch an enterprise-focused VR headset that could help lure developers into the community. But Abruzes also pointed out that the price of enterprise-level VR headsets can run into thousands of dollars, making it difficult to bring the technology to the mainstream.
“In the first year, Apple may not even ship 5 million VR headsets,” Abruzes said. “But it’s worth mentioning that this will be the first compelling headset from a big tech giant.” Eye-catching product.”
In fact, what the VR world lacks are killer apps.
Some games, such as the music rhythm game Beat Saber and VR versions of popular titles such as Resident Evil, have already gained popularity, Abruzes said. Additionally, some users have shown greater interest in using VR for fitness activities.
But that still pales in comparison to the console market, where blockbuster titles like FIFA and Call of Duty sell hundreds of millions of copies. Meanwhile, Meta’s Horizon Worlds social VR platform is still experimental. “The only real metaverse product is Horizon, and it’s not doing well right now,” Abruzes said.
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